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DE RUEHBS #1596/01 1311521
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 111521Z MAY 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 001596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZK
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES CENTRAL ASIA WITH EU (CORRECTED 
COPY) 
 
 
Classified By: USEU Political Minister Counselor 
Larry Wohlers for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  On April 16, Assistant Secretary for South 
and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher led the U.S. 
delegation to the COEST (the EU's Eastern Europe and Central 
Asia Working Party) troika on Central Asia.  Throughout the 
German EU presidency, the EU has expressed a growing interest 
in Central Asia.  During the troika, the EU stressed that it 
is committed to the region for the long-term. Recapping the 
Astana Ministerial the EU held with all five Central Asian 
countries, EU interlocutors told Boucher that the Central 
Asian states do not wish to be seen as a problem and 
emphasized their ability to work with one another. 
Discussions revealed the ongoing need to address issues of 
corruption and democratic reform in the region, but also 
revealed improvements, such as positive signals coming out of 
Turkmenistan and regional economic integration in Tajikistan. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
Regional Issues:  Central Asia: "We are not a problem." 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Throughout the German EU presidency, the EU has 
expressed a growing interest in Central Asia.  The German 
presidency is currently drafting a strategy paper on the 
future of relations between Central Asia and the EU, which 
will be finalized on or about June 21/22.  German Special 
Envoy for Commonwealth of Independent States countries 
Hans-Dieter Lucas told Boucher the strategy would focus on 
seven elements:  1.) a regular, structured dialogue at the 
Minister and Foreign Minister-level; 2.) education (with an 
emphasis on higher education and training); 3.) rule of law; 
4.) human rights (the EU is striving to have a structured 
human rights dialogue with each of the five countries); 5.) 
economic development (with an emphasis on trade, investment, 
and support for World Trade Organization accession); 6.) 
energy (with an emphasis on developing a harmonized 
regulatory framework, transport, and an enhanced energy 
dialogue); and 7.) environmental and border issues, with an 
emphasis on regional water management and domestic security 
(including issues of drug trafficking, organized crime, and 
illegal immigration).  The report is currently being 
discussed by the Member States' Political and Security 
Committee (PSC). 
 
¶3.  (C)  EU Special Representative for Central Asia Pierre 
Morel told Boucher the Astana Ministerial was "very useful" 
and would become a yearly event.  The Central Asian states 
sought to send the message that "we are not a problem," 
contrasting their successes with troubles in the Caucasus, 
and emphasizing their willingness to work together.  EU 
interlocutors stressed that the EU is committed to Central 
Asia for the long term.  The European Commission has 
allocated 750 million euros in assistance over the next seven 
years, and the European Investment Bank will receive a 
mandate for "soft lending" in the region to the tune of 400 
million Euros.  Boucher applauded the EU's financial 
commitment and added that he hoped bilateral Member State 
assistance would continue to expand as well. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Building on the German presidency's momentum, Morel 
said the Portuguese Ambassador in Russia would be Lisbon's 
coordinator for Central Asia under the Portuguese presidency 
and that good groundwork with the Portuguese and Slovenians 
had begun.  He also stressed the French presidency in 2008 
would give Central Asia the same priority as the Germans. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Speaking on Kazakhstan's World Trade Organization 
accession progress, European Commission Head of Unit for 
Southern Caucasus and Central Asia Victor Maldonado noted 
that the EU was committed to helping Kazakhstan, but had not 
yet finalized negotiations.  Boucher added that the USG was 
exploring whether it can use the Asian Development Bank's 
Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program and said 
the Japanese will be in Washington in May for discussions on 
Central Asia.  Boucher invited the EU to participate in the 
discussions with the Japanese. 
 
¶6.  (C)  On Afghanistan, EU interlocutors reported the 
Central Asians were fairly pessimistic.  At the Ministerial, 
the Central Asians stressed to the EU that they did not want 
to be treated only in relation to Afghanistan.  Kazakhstan, 
 
BRUSSELS 00001596  002 OF 004 
 
 
in particular, complained that it had been excluded from 
coalition reconstruction tenders in Afghanistan.  Boucher 
mentioned Ambassador Neumann was going to Central Asia to 
talk to leaders about their concerns.  Boucher agreed to look 
into the Kazakhs' concern, but said he was not aware of any 
rule specifically excluding them from the tender process. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Boucher also used the troika to brief EU 
interlocutors on Assistant Secretary Sullivan, Deputy 
Assistant Secretary Bryza, and Principal Deputy Assistant 
Secretary Mann's trip to the region to discuss trans-Caspian 
 
SIPDIS 
gas.  He also briefed them on progress on the Tajik-Afghan 
bridge and the possibility of transporting electricity from 
Tajikistan to Afghanistan. 
 
Turkmenistan:  Real opportunity for positive change 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8.  (C)  EU interlocutors shared Bocher's assessment that 
there is a real opportunity for positive change in 
Turkmenistan following the death of President Niyazov.  All 
parties were cautiously optimistic but noted that the country 
would need to undertake major reforms, particularly in the 
areas of freedom of the press and human rights.  On energy, 
the EU expressed interest in Turkmenistan's emerging 
relationship with Azerbaijan and interest in Russia's 
potential response to increased Chinese investment. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Maldonado said the European Commission will send 
four education experts to Turkmenistan in the next several 
weeks and noted five million euros have been earmarked in 
this year's budget for programs in good governance, economic 
reform, and promotion of civil society.  In May, the 
Commission will send a technical mission on energy to the 
region and hold a seminar to discuss issues including higher 
education and the internet. 
 
Uzbekistan:  EU urges engagement 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  The German presidency appears to be pushing to 
soften the EU's position on Uzbekistan.  In the troika, Lucas 
stressed the importance of continuing to work with 
Uzbekistan, claiming, "if we just leave them alone because 
they are a nasty country, they will continue to be a nasty 
country."  Lucas said Uzbekistan has agreed to a 
"results-oriented" human rights dialogue with the EU.  He 
added that the Uzbeks had showed "growing confidence" during 
EU-Uzbek talks on Andijon and claimed that overall EU experts 
were "satisfied" with the two rounds of Andijon talks and did 
not feel a third round was necessary.  EU interlocutors told 
Boucher the EU's decision May 14 regarding whether to ease 
sanctions would take into account their assessment of both 
the Andijon talks and the human rights dialogue.  Morel was 
slightly less optimistic than Lucas but suggested there were 
signals that Uzbekistan might be ready to make some gestures 
ahead of the sanctions decision.  On the other hand, 
Maldonado noted Uzbekistan's problems with its neighbors, 
illustrated by the fact the Uzbeks have still not signed the 
Action Plan with the EU.  Maldonado added that the Commission 
has reduced its assistance to Uzbekistan to three million 
euros this year but is still having problems implementing the 
programs that money is intended for.  Boucher strongly urged 
interlocutors to base their decision regarding sanctions on 
real progress by the Uzbeks, rather than just talk. 
 
Kazakhstan:  "Anchor of stability" 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C)  Lucas agreed with Boucher's positive assessment of 
Kazakhstan, describing it as the "anchor of stability" in the 
region, in part, due to President Nazarbayev's leadership. 
Lucas said a Kazakhstan Organization for Security and 
Cooperation in Europe chairmanship would be useful for the 
Organization's role in Central Asia and all former 
post-Soviet countries, but stressed that the EU always tells 
Kazakhstan they must make their case for chairmanship through 
actions.  On human rights, EU interlocutors noted Kazakhstan 
is "not a paradise." 
 
¶12.  (C)  The Commission has earmarked 12 million euros/year 
for the next seven years in assistance for Kazakhstan. 
Commission assistance will focus on economic reform, with an 
emphasis on the energy sector.  Morel noted that Kazakhstan 
 
BRUSSELS 00001596  003 OF 004 
 
 
was eager to move away from assistance and into "partnership" 
programs instead, which while positive for the EU's budget 
would require careful political management. Interlocutors 
also told Boucher that while Kazakhstan welcomes Chinese 
investment, it is wary of Chinese immigration as a result. 
 
Kyrgyz Republic:  Deteriorating political situation and 
creeping "Islamization" worry EU 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶13.  (C)  Lucas and Morel expressed concern that if the 
political situation continues to deteriorate in Kyrgyzstan, 
others in the region may draw the conclusion that the closer 
a country moves toward democracy, the more unstable it 
becomes.  Morel told Boucher he met with President Kurmanbek 
Bakiyev in mid-March, and that Bakiyev seemed fairly pleased 
with himself for having outplayed the opposition.  Morel 
sensed that there was a credible growing opposition movement 
led by former Prime Minister Kulov, but that Kulov was more 
interested in overruling Bakiyev than he was in leading the 
charge for constitutional change.  Pushing Kulov forward, 
Morel said, is former Interior Minister Omurbek Suvanaliyev. 
According to Morel, Suvanaliyev recently claimed he could 
influence 40 percent of the country's secret police forces. 
Morel expressed concern that Suvanaliyev and Kulov have 
strong ties to Moscow and had made several secret trips. 
Morel said the opposition was dismissing Bakiyev's 
appointment of opposition leader Almaz Atambayev to the role 
of Prime Minister as a "pawn."  Boucher stressed the need for 
a coordinated message pressing Kyrgyzstan to settle down (not 
exploiting the current uncertainty for short term gain), to 
revise the constitution, and to move on. 
 
¶14.  (C)  Although the Parliament is largely outdated, Morel 
conceded that at least there is one in place.  Morel 
expressed deep concern over the "creeping Islamization 
through social pressure," noting that women were being paid 
to wear the hijab and citing the recently proposed 
legislation legalizing polygamy.  Bakiyev joked about the 
proposed legislation, but did nothing to block it.  The 
legislation was later blocked by the Parliament. 
 
¶15.  (C)  On assistance, Maldonado told Boucher there would 
be an 80 percent increase in assistance, totaling 40 million 
euros a year.  Commission assistance will focus on rural 
development, the social sector, energy, and political 
infrastructure and transparency.  Boucher briefed EU 
interlocutors on our progress preparing a Millennium 
Challenge Account threshold program for the country. 
 
¶16.  (C)  On hydro power, EU interlocutors shared Boucher's 
assessment that the Kyrgyz do not have a plan and expressed 
doubt that the project might become a "white elephant." 
Boucher stressed the need for the Kyrgyz to reform the energy 
sector first. 
 
Tajikistan:  Cautiously optimistic 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (C)  EU interlocutors generally shared Boucher's 
assessment and were cautiously optimistic about Tajikistan, 
but agreed that issues of democratic reform and corruption 
continue to plague the country.  Lucas relayed that the 
Tajiks are nervous about political idealization from 
Afghanistan.  Lucas also expressed concern over drug 
trafficking.  Lucas said that border control and drug 
trafficking would be "stepped up" in the new EU strategic 
framework, with an emphasis on better coordination with all 
regional players, including Russia.  Maldonado told Boucher 
there would be a 14-15 million euro increase in the regional 
border management program. 
 
¶18.  (C)  The Commission told Boucher it would spend 17 
million euros per year on rural development, agriculture, 
land reform, and public finance management (linked with an 
anti-corruption campaign) during the next programming period. 
Two Commission programs were closed, however, due to 
corruption. 
 
¶19.  (C)  Lucas agreed with Boucher that the lack of 
democratic reform continues to be a problem.  EU 
interlocutors stressed the need to make clear to the Tajiks 
that the OSCE must be allowed to do its job, and said the 
litmus test for democratic reform would be the state of 
 
BRUSSELS 00001596  004 OF 004 
 
 
non-governmental organizations.  Nonetheless, Lucas said that 
Tajikistan seems to be moving in the right direction and 
appears to maintain a lively civil society. 
 
¶20.  (C)  Morel commented that President Rakhmon seemed to be 
confident and in good shape, but that his presidency was not 
necessarily leading to the desired democratic reform.  Morel 
said he was impressed with a recent meeting with Moheyuddin 
Kabiri and that Kabiri was focused on doing everything 
possible to be successful in the next parliamentary 
elections.  Morel commented that while Kabiri plays a 
moderate, "nice guy," he continues to maintain a link with 
the "tougher parts" of the Islamic Renaissance Party. 
 
¶21.  (C)  Lucas noted with interest the increased role of 
China in Tajikistan, and growing apprehension from Moscow 
that it was losing influence. 
 
Future U.S.-EU discussions:  Islamic tendencies in region? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶22.  (C)  Consistent with concerns raised in COEST Troika 
discussions on the South Caucasus and Black Sea region, the 
EU requested that Islamic tendencies in the region be added 
to the next COEST Central Asia agenda.  Boucher said he would 
first want to discuss the issue with USG experts. 
 
¶23.  (U)  This cable has been cleared by the Bureau of South 
and Central Asian Affairs. 
 
McKinley 
.