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INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
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RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
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RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRUSSELS 001462 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN AF PK IN CE NP BG
SUBJECT: A/S BOUCHER DISCUSSES SOUTH ASIA WITH THE EU 
 
 
Classified By: USEU Political Minister Counselor Larry Wohlers 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 ¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  On April 17, Assistant Secretary for 
South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher led the U.S. 
South Asia delegation to the COASI (the EU's Asia-Oceania 
Working Party) Troika on South Asia, discussing Afghanistan, 
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, U.S.-EU-India relations, and the 
situations in Nepal and Bangladesh.  On Afghanistan and 
Pakistan, the EU remains a committed financial partner and is 
preparing to make a significant contribution in the area of 
policing and justice reform.  EU interlocutors expressed 
growing concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation in 
Sri Lanka and ongoing concerns in the areas of human and 
civil rights in Bangladesh.  Finally, EU interlocutors 
emphasized continued EU interest in the U.S.-India Civil 
Nuclear Initiative and requested more information to help 
inform EU opinion.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Afghanistan:  EU focus on police and justice 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  German EU presidency rep and COASI Chair Andreas 
Michaelis told Boucher that since October, the EU has been 
drawing lessons from last year's spring insurgency and 
focusing its efforts on questions of reconstruction and 
helping the Karzai government become a legitimate actor.  In 
general, discussions at the COASI Troika revealed EU 
interlocutors remain a committed financial partner. 
 
¶3.  (C)  On the security situation, Michaelis said that while 
some areas in the South and East are now neutral territory, 
security concerns continue to focus on terrorism, with a new 
emphasis on suicide bombings.  Michaelis said he feared the 
spring insurgency would bring a new wave of suicide attacks, 
many of which looked to be Iraqi-inspired, and emphasized 
that the increase in attacks continues to pose a challenge to 
the legitimacy of the international presence in Afghanistan. 
Assistant Secretary Boucher replied that we still face a 
difficult enemy, but noted that we do so with more police, a 
larger NATO presence, more electricity, and more money for 
assistance. 
 
¶4.  (C)  On Pakistan, Michaelis said President Musharraf 
understood the message on cross-border incursions, but that 
questions continue to loom within the EU whether Pakistan is 
doing enough.  Specifically, Michaelis questioned Musharraf's 
ability to manage instability within the Tribal Areas and 
expressed growing concern over the influence of radical 
Islamic groups on civil society. 
 
¶5.  (C)  U.S.-EU assessments on the Karzai government also 
differed.  Michaelis questioned whether the Karzai government 
was exerting enough control but credited Afghans for their 
willingness and desire to begin taking over ownership of 
reconstruction and security. 
 
¶6.  (C)  European Council rep Tomasz Kozlowski told Boucher 
that a small Civilian Response Team would be deployed to 
Kabul in May to facilitate the planning process for a 
European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) mission in the 
field of policing with linkages to the wider rule of law, 
with the goal of being fully operational by June 15. 
Kozlowski said the program would draw on at least 160 people, 
including third country contributions from countries such as 
Canada, Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, Ukraine, and New 
Zealand, among others.  The program will be headquartered in 
Kabul and coordinate with Provincial Reconstruction Teams 
(PRTs) in 19 provinces.  Kozlowski added that 20 EU officers 
will be placed in the International Police Coordination Board 
and its Secretariat, and urged the U.S. to consider using the 
Secretariat for coordination as well.  Boucher agreed that 
 
SIPDIS 
the Board was a good place for coordination, but was not 
prepared to give an official response on U.S. staffing. 
 
¶7.  (C)  European Commission rep Helen Campbell told Boucher 
the Commission's assistance for the 2006-2010 period will be 
610 million Euros and a major new focus will be the justice 
sector.  The Commission plans to deploy justice experts to 
the Ministry of Justice, Supreme Court, and the Attorney 
General's office in June to compliment its aid program and 
dovetail with the European Security and Defense Policy 
mission.  Boucher applauded the EU's emphasis and 
contributions on policing and justice, and welcomed the June 
deployment. 
 
 
BRUSSELS 00001462  002 OF 005 
 
 
¶8.  (C)  In addition to responding to concerns about 
security, Boucher used the Troika to brief the EU on the 
$11.8 billion supplemental request before Congress, which was 
of great interest to EU interlocutors. 
 
¶9.  (C)  On coordination, Assistant Secretary Boucher 
emphasized that the United Nations remains the best 
coordinator for reconstruction.  Separately, he noted a 
NATO/UN international fund for quick impact funds was under 
consideration.  EU interlocutors suggested that while they 
would welcome an international quick impact fund, there is an 
even greater need for the relevant mechanisms to implement 
projects, citing too many hesitations from non-governmental 
organizations.  EU interlocutors noted difficulties finding 
the right partners to implement certain programs, such as 
road building, especially in light of the security situation. 
 Boucher acknowledged the EU's concerns and welcomed the 
Commission's new funding to support small EU Member State 
Provincial Reconstruction Teams. 
 
Pakistan:  Heightened EU concern over Islamist influence 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  Michaelis emphasized that Pakistan is very much on 
the EU's radar, particularly given its connection to 
Afghanistan and India's emergence as the "darling of the 
international investor."  In the last year, the EU has sought 
to engage Pakistan in a deeper political and economic 
relationship. 
 
¶11.  (C)  On the subject of the Tribal Areas, interlocutors 
were fairly pessimistic.  Michaelis expressed skepticism over 
absorption capacity and remarked that because of the security 
situation, nongovernmental organizations were not able to 
fully operate in the region.  Michaelis acknowledged that 
Musharraf must walk a tight rope between control and 
stabilization, noting that the two concepts were not 
synonymous.  Boucher defended Musharraf stating that we don't 
have three to five years to act and that the situation 
required action now.  Boucher told interlocutors that a large 
presence of troops in the Tribal Areas simply wasn't enough 
and that we were seeing more sophisticated political tactics 
being adopted. 
 
¶12.  (C)  Interlocutors expressed grave concern over the rise 
of Islamist parties and the influence of radical Islamic 
groups on civil society.  Michaelis predicted a bumpy road 
ahead, citing destabilizing elements in Karachi and the 
madrassa in Islamabad.  With regard to the elections, 
Michaelis said it was not clear what strategy Musharraf would 
adopt, and suggested Musharraf was too wrapped up in 
day-to-day crisis management to have developed a clear 
strategy.  Boucher agreed that it was unlikely Musharraf had 
a clear strategy but predicted that support would decline for 
Islamist groups. 
 
¶13.  (C)  Commission rep Campbell said that the EU was, in 
principle, ready to observe elections.  The Commission will 
send an exploratory mission to the region.  On assistance, 
Campbell said that the Commission is quadrupling assistance 
and has earmarked 200 million Euros for the 2007-2010 period. 
 Focus of Commission assistance will be:  rural development; 
border management in the Peshawar corridor; upgraded rule of 
law and infrastructure in the North and Northeast; and 
education, with a focus on moving beyond primary education to 
include vocational training.  Assistance will be implemented 
by the United Nations' Development Programme. 
 
¶14.  (C)  Campbell also told Boucher that the EU would hold 
the first Joint Commission with Pakistan in more than ten 
years.  Discussions will focus on cooperation and trade, with 
a goal of getting the dialogue back on track.  While the 
Pakistanis have expressed a strong interest in negotiating a 
Free Trade Agreement with the EU, Campbell confirmed that the 
EU was not prepared to move ahead on any such agreement at 
this time. 
 
¶15.  (C)  On the issue of refugees, Campbell noted that 
Pakistan wants 200 million refugees to return home.  Campbell 
urged the U.S. and EU to send a coordinated message that we 
will look at the situation, but that Pakistan needs to be 
realistic.  Boucher agreed in part, noting that we need to 
ensure resettlement funds are available in Afghanistan as a 
preliminary matter. 
 
¶16.  (C)  Finally, concluding the discussion on Pakistan, EU 
 
BRUSSELS 00001462  003 OF 005 
 
 
interlocutors asked Boucher about the role of the Pakistani 
Army.  According to interlocutors, rumors persist that the 
Army is losing its reputation as the most stable and 
non-corrupt part of Pakistani society.  Boucher replied that 
there had been some grumblings from a few generals last fall 
about Musharraf, but that seems to have quieted down. 
Boucher told interlocutors that the Army was tired of being 
responsible for everything and wants to go back to just being 
in charge of the Army.  Boucher remarked that this would be a 
healthy move for Pakistan. 
 
Sri Lanka:  Nothing to celebrate 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (C)  The EU is very concerned about the rapid decline in 
democratic standards and the escalating violence that has 
impeded humanitarian support and access in Sri Lanka 
according to German EU presidency rep Bernd Borchard.  The 
Government of Sri Lanka has put nothing forward to 
constructively address the humanitarian crisis -- as 
exemplified by the 200,000 internally displaced persons, he 
added.  The EU is discussing the merits of sending a troika 
mission to the country to assess the situation on-the-ground, 
confirm support by the government and rebels for a peaceful 
solution, and communicate a strong message on democracy, 
human rights, and humanitarian aid and access. 
 
¶18.  (C)  EU interlocutors did not believe the Sri Lankan 
Government was sensitive to economic pressure and recommended 
that Japan be convinced to be tougher in its bilateral 
dealings with them.  Michaelis said Sri Lankan Foreign 
Minister Bogollagama was told the Government must engage in a 
political vice military solution to the crisis when he 
visited Berlin in February. 
 
¶19.  (C)  Boucher said that a sound devolution of power 
proposal was critical to a peaceful resoution of the crisis. 
 He urged continued presure on the Government and the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.  Boucher witnessed Sri 
Lankan President Rajapaksa's outspoken remarks on human 
rights at the recent South Asian Association for Regional 
Cooperation meeting in New Delhi, but said his actions do no 
match his oratory.  The Government would be wise to consider 
attracting the Tamil community and bleeding support from the 
Tamil Tigers. 
 
¶20.  (C)  Human rights monitoring might be appropriate and 
timely, suggested Commission rep Helen Campbell.  Moderate 
Tamils are encountering trouble expressing themselves openly. 
 Campbell raised the question whether it was now time for the 
Sri Lanka Co-Chairs group to meet.  Boucher agreed there was 
a need for human rights monitoring, but said the most 
appropriate mechanism must first be identified.  He suggested 
the Co-Chairs could perhaps come together informally in May 
or June, but without producing another Co-Chairs statement. 
Boucher added that increased security concerns in Sri Lanka 
currently mitigated serious consideration of a Millennium 
Challenge Account Threshold Program. 
 
¶21.  (C)  Michaelis said he witnessed a Chinese "red carpet" 
treatment for Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa in Beijing in 
early March and queried whether the EU and U.S. should build 
increased cooperation with more Asian countries, including 
China, in order to press our policy approach.  Boucher 
responded that Chinese representatives would travel to 
Washington in May or June to discuss South and Central Asia. 
 
India:  Active engagement on all sides 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶22.  (C)  Both sides were optimistic about engagement with 
India and hoped that greater economic activity would enhance 
India's involvement in helping to resolve some of the more 
difficult issues evident in South Asia. 
 
¶23.  (C)  On U.S.-India civil nuclear discussions, Boucher 
said the recent Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Capetown 
appeared to show that U.S.-India civil nuclear discussions 
were back on track.  A bilateral agreement and Nuclear 
Suppliers Group consent remain to be finalized if U.S. 
Congressional consideration is anticipated prior to Fall 
¶2007. 
 
¶24.  (C)  Other areas in which the U.S. and India are engaged 
include defense and global peace efforts as well as 
education.  Boucher outlined joint programs underway that 
 
BRUSSELS 00001462  004 OF 005 
 
 
might provide opportunities for India to support Afghan 
educational efforts -- in addition to sending students to 
India for study.  Borchard observed that India appears to 
want to engage more actively as shown by its constructive 
engagement on Nepal and Sri Lanka. 
 
¶25.  (C)  European Commission rep Jean-Christian Remond said 
the EU wants to engage more with India on regional issues and 
is increasing its activities, especially in the areas of 
science, technology, and education.  The EU supports 
Millennium Development Goals through health and education, he 
added.  Negotiations may lead to a Free Trade Agreement with 
India and the EU wants the Free Trade Agreement to lead to 
World Trade Organization Plus, which would cover more than 
the existing Doha Development Agenda.  Increased EU-India 
trade could positively result in drawing India further into 
the global political arena, Remond predicted.  Borchard added 
that India will likely use the Free Trade Agreement for 
internal political leverage. 
 
¶26.  (C)  Energy security and climate change will be 
priorities for EU-India Summit at the end of the year. 
Remond asked whether India's position in the world energy 
market would lead to harsh competition with China in world 
markets.  Boucher responded that there could be increased 
India-China competition as occurred in some Central Asian 
countries. 
 
¶27.  (C)  When asked if the U.S. was considering a Free Trade 
Agreement with India, Boucher responded that it was unlikely, 
due, in part, to agricultural policy differences.  The U.S. 
will continue its CEO dialogue, which covers broad issues, 
including travel visas.  India is aware of what is needed for 
responsible economic growth, but needs the political momentum 
to yield economic reform.  "They know what is wrong," Boucher 
concluded. 
 
¶28.  (C)  Council Rep Michael Swann asked whether growing 
tensions in India's poor Muslim communities represent a trend 
towards greater societal exclusion and if these tensions are 
cause for concern in light of upcoming elections.  Boucher 
observed that India was very concerned about terrorism.  We 
should, he urged, work closely with them.  Poverty 
alleviation is an important issue, Boucher argued, and it is, 
therefore, imperative that market and technological changes 
and retail sector improvements take place in India in order 
to help address the problem.  Boucher concluded by stating 
that the U.S.-India relationship is beyond 
government-to-government, and business, academic, and 
personal ties are quickly accelerating. 
 
Bangladesh:  Concerns remain 
---------------------------- 
 
¶29.  (C)  Bangladesh's porous borders contribute to illicit 
activities, and some members of the ruling party gain form 
these activities, posited Borchard.  In addition, the lack of 
legitimacy of the caretaker government added to the country's 
problems.  An EU regional troika mission will be sent to 
Bangladesh to urge the government to demonstrate greater 
progress in the areas of human and civil rights.  The timing 
of elections remained outstanding, he said.  Boucher recently 
met with Bangladesh's Chief Advisor and communicated U.S. 
support for a sound election and the critical need for 
transparency.  Boucher advised EU reps to be alert to any 
signs the caretaker government is "settling in." 
 
¶30.  (C)  Commission rep Campbell said the EU has suspended 
its agreement with Bangladesh and wants to see a clear "road 
map" on the political process.  She noted the EU had heard 
reports of 100,000 detainees and deaths under torture (Note: 
Boucher later corrected these estimates).  Campbell was 
concerned that there existed a great deal of public and civil 
society tolerance for the caretaker government.  On a 
positive note, she added she was impressed with on-the-ground 
cooperation between the EU and U.S., which she characterized 
as excellent. 
 
Nepal:  Getting better 
---------------------- 
 
¶31.  (C)  Assistant Secretary Boucher led the discussion by 
noting the situation remains somewhat precarious, but there 
is political movement forward.  The Government has not 
adequately addressed concerns by southerners and, while the 
Maoists are participating in the political process, they have 
 
BRUSSELS 00001462  005 OF 005 
 
 
not fully converted to a political party and continue to use 
extortion for political gain. 
 
¶32.  (C)  Borchard said the EU was somewhat optimistic about 
progress in Nepal and was not alarmed by postponement of the 
elections, as it believed the Nepalese agenda was 
"over-eager."  A revised EU approach was not needed, although 
continued observation of the Maoists and their actions was 
required, he thought. 
 
¶33.  (C)  The EU will likely send an electoral observation 
mission.  EU reps questioned whether the U.S. would send a 
similar mission.  A/S Boucher indicated there would be U.S. 
observers and recommended U.S.-EU coordination in Kathmandu. 
 
¶34.  (C)  In response to a question on whether the U.S. would 
contribute to either of two peace funds put forward by Nepal 
and the UN, A/S Boucher noted the U.S. contributes 
approximately 40 million dollars in aid to Nepal, and it was 
not clear there would be a contribution to a peace fund. EU 
interlocutors concluded the discussion by stating that 
relations between the EU and Nepal were back to normal after 
the suspension of their Joint Cooperation Agreement.  EU 
contributions planned for the period 2007-10 would 
approximate 60 million Euros over four years. 
 
Regional cooperation in Asia 
---------------------------- 
 
¶35.  (C)  Boucher encouraged support to SAARC, given the 
possibilities of South Asian and intra-regional free trade, 
although he recognized SAARC accomplishments over the past 20 
years could be characterized as minimal. 
 
¶36.  (U)  This cable has been cleared by the Bureau of South 
and Central Asian Affairs. 
.