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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR-COLLINS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIAN CABINET COUP FAILED, BUT NEW PRIME 
MINISTER STILL LIKELY 
 
REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 589 
     ¶B. BRIDGETOWN 525 
 
Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  St. Lucia's Prime Minister Sir John Compton 
reportedly returned from New York on May 19.  His weakened 
state probably means that St. Lucia's unsettled political 
situation will continue.  The government has made no official 
announcements since his return, but it is likely that Acting 
Prime Minister Stephenson King will continue in that 
position.  Popular outcry against Foreign Minister Rufus 
Bousquet and Housing Minister Richard Fredrick for their 
alleged involvement in a cabinet coup against Compton 
neutralized their chances to lead the government at this 
time.  Without Compton, the United Workers Party (UWP) 
government may be able to limp along, but probably will not 
survive in office the full five years left in its term. 
Regardless of who succeeds Compton, a reversal of the 
China-Taiwan decision is unlikely in the near term.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) According to press reports and one member of his 
cabinet, Prime Minister Sir John Compton returned to St. 
Lucia on May 19, following a three-week hospital stay in New 
York.  While in New York for a routine medical check-up, 
Compton suffered a series of strokes (ref B).  Since his 
return, St. Lucia's government has not yet made an official 
announcement concerning his health, possible retirement, or a 
successor.  However, members of the St. Lucian government 
publicly stated that it was unlikely that Compton would 
return to his official duties. 
 
EVEN IN SICKNESS, COMPTON PREVAILS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) When Compton and FM Bousquet both left for the United 
States on May 1, Bousquet appeared well-positioned to push 
Compton out of office and politics.  Bousquet had just 
succeeded in lining up the majority of the cabinet against 
Compton and in support of the decision to reestablish 
diplomatic relation with Taiwan (ref B).  Compton was 
outmaneuvered, but Bousquet overplayed his hand.  Compton's 
illness and rumors of the Bousquet-led cabinet coup generated 
an upsurge of public sympathy for Compton, the aging "Father 
of St. Lucia."  That upsurge was apparently helped along by 
Minister for Economic Affairs Ausbert d'Auvergne, a 
Compton-loyalist who told a UK diplomat that he has been 
working to generate negative press against Bousquet.  As a 
result, Bousquet is being blamed for Compton's strokes and 
has become the most hated man in St. Lucia.  His chances of 
succeeding Compton are therefore essentially nil.  The public 
has also found Housing Minister Richard Fredrick guilty by 
association for supporting Bousquet in his grab for power. 
As such, Fredrick's ambitions too have been temporarily 
neutralized.  Both ministers kept a low profile the week 
prior to Compton's May 19 return. 
 
FRUSTRATION OF THE PEOPLE 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In addition to the public's disapproval of Bousquet 
and Fredrick, St. Lucians have also been frustrated with the 
government's mishandling of the situation.  Acting Prime 
Minister Stephenson King issued a number of statements, which 
in hindsight, proved to be false.  What is now being viewed 
by St. Lucians as a lack of honesty severely damaged King's 
public credibility. 
 
A KING OR A SPIDER:  WHO WILL LEAD? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) With both Bousquet and Fredrick sidelined, the most 
likely candidates to succeed Compton are King and Deputy 
Political Leader and Minister for Social Transformation, 
Lenard "Spider" Montoute.  Given King's mishandling of 
information, Montoute seems to be the more popular candidate 
among St. Lucians.  However, King is the more experienced 
political leader, having served as a member of parliament and 
Minister for Health in the previous UWP government from 1987 
to 1997.  He was also considered the backbone of the UWP 
during its ten years in opposition (1997-2006).  King may 
also be the more likely compromise candidate because he is a 
 
non-controversial politician who rarely offends.  Some in the 
UWP may also consider King's indecisiveness and a lack of 
leadership skills as a plus because these qualities would 
ensure that King would be only a transitional figure, a 
placeholder while the UWP reorganizes itself.  Montoute may 
get his chance later.  He shows more charisma and enthusiasm 
than King, but the December 2006 election was only his second 
bid for a parliamentary seat and the first he successfully 
contested. 
 
THE FUTURE OF CHINA-TAIWAN 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Although both King and Montoute reportedly supported 
Compton in his plan to keep diplomatic relations with China, 
the government will not revisit the issue regardless of who 
takes power.  Montoute, who personally sees relations with 
China over Taiwan as advantageous, told PolOff that the 
cabinet made its decision to recognize Taiwan and a reversal 
at this point would only cause more damage to St. Lucia's 
credibility. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) Compton's likely retirement will have a lasting impact 
on St. Lucian politics.  When Compton retired in 1996, the 
UWP imploded under a lack of leadership and suffered from 
internal power struggles until Compton came out of retirement 
in 2006 and led his party to victory.  Now that he may no 
longer be able to lead his party, the UWP again appears torn 
by internal disagreements and personal rivalries.  Compton, 
who liked to concentrate all power in his hands, is largely 
responsible for this situation.  While he built the UWP and 
led it to victory a number of times, he failed to plan for 
its future by grooming a successor. 
 
¶8.  (C) Regardless of who succeeds Compton, few expect the 
new prime minister to last more than a year or two in light 
of the power struggles within the UWP.  The opposition St. 
Lucia Labor Party (SLP) will seek to capitalize on the UWP's 
disarray.  The SLP is organized, disciplined, and savvy at 
spinning the press.  Without a strong leader at the UWP helm, 
the SLP may succeed at forcing early parliamentary elections. 
 
¶9.  (C) Compton's retirement may also impact U.S. relations 
with St. Lucia.  Compton naturally gravitated to the United 
States, and never lost sight of our shared goals in the 
region.  He viewed with suspicion the encroachment of the 
region's new "benefactors," Venezuela, Cuba, and China.  For 
example, among his first announcements upon returning to 
office in December 2006, was to reject Venezuela's 
PetroCaribe program.  His possible UWP successors may be too 
weak not to make certain compromises. 
OURISMAN