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OO RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0420/01 1220509
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O 020509Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4714
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS CN
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SHOWDOWN IN THE COMOROS 
 
REF: A. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1410 
 
     ¶B. TRENKLE-NEUBERT EMAIL 4/25/2007 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Political tensions are running high in the 
Union of the Comoros as the Union and Anjouan Island 
Governments jockey over whether President of Anjouan Mohamed 
Bacar (known for his secessionist tendencies and prickly 
relationship with the Union Government) must step down 
preceding the June 10 Island Presidential elections, in which 
he plans to run for reelection.  The Constitutional Court 
(CC) ruled April 27 that Bacar's mandate ended April 14, and 
Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi subsequently designated 
an interim President of Anjouan for the less than 60 days 
preceding the election.  In a private phone call with 
Ambassador McGee April 28, Sambi reiterated his request 
(REFTEL) for U.S.-funded military training for Union security 
forces, preferably to begin preceding the election, and 
expressed his desire to see the African Union (AU) step 
forward to guarantee free, fair, transparent, and peaceful 
elections.  Anjouan is calm for now, but Union officials and 
the residents of Anjouan are nervously awaiting Bacar's 
response.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES BACAR MUST STEP DOWN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) April 14 marked the five-year point of Bacar's term as 
President of Anjouan -- the moment at which many of Bacar's 
opponents in both Grand Comores and Anjouan argued he should 
resign from office by law if he wishes to run for 
reelection.  In the "touch and go" two-week period that 
followed -- while Bacar publicly announced he would continue 
to rule the island, imposed a curfew, and strictly controlled 
incoming and outgoing flights from the Anjouan airport -- 
Union Government officials debated how to address the issue. 
The CC ruled April 27 that Bacar's mandate ended on April 14 
and an interim president must be named on Anjouan for the 
period before the elections.  The CC ruling suggested the 
Union President, the "arbiter and moderator of the regular 
functioning of institutions" throughout the country, is 
responsible for designating an interim president on Anjouan. 
The following day, Union President Sambi publicly designated 
Houmadi Kaambi, current President of Anjouan's Assembly, as 
the interim Island President and charged him with forming a 
representative interim government within five days of taking 
office. 
 
SAMBI REQUESTS U.S. ASSISTANCE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (C) In a private phone call with Ambassador McGee April 
28, Union President Sambi reiterated his request for 
U.S.-funded military training for Union security forces in 
the form of three to five U.S. military trainers for a period 
of one to two months in order to raise the professionalism of 
the Union forces.  Sambi also wants to see the AU step 
forward to guarantee free, fair, transparent, and peaceful 
elections -- in particular by dissuading Bacar from creating 
any problems.  (NOTE: An AU assessment team recently traveled 
to the three islands to determine the level of security 
needed for elections.  Post understands AU assistance, 
provided almost entirely by South Africa, will likely consist 
of a small military/police training team, logistical support 
including helicopters, and an electoral observation team (REF 
B).  END NOTE.) 
 
ANJOUAN CALM...FOR NOW 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (U) Residents of Anjouan are nervously awaiting Bacar's 
response.  As of 1700 April 30, Bacar's only public moves 
consisted of closing the airport for several hours in the 
morning in the hopes of preventing Union officials and 
security forces from coming to Anjouan.  The airport has 
since reopened. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) This is the latest example of the federalist problem 
of "division of competences" between the Union and Island 
 
ANTANANARI 00000420  002 OF 002 
 
 
Governments.  The historical tension between Union President 
Sambi and Island President Bacar is only exacerbated by the 
vaguely worded and sometimes conflicting French-based 
legislation agreed to in 2001 that leaves much open to 
interpretation.  However, the Comoran Constitution gives the 
CC the right to judge the constitutionality of both Union and 
Island laws and resolve conflicts therein.  Empowered by the 
CC's ruling, President Sambi is determined not to let Bacar 
run for reelection unless he agrees to step down.  That said, 
Bacar has power on Anjouan, including armed forces, and may 
decide to call Sambi's bluff.  In that case the Comoros will 
edge closer to a return to the crisis of secession that the 
2001 legislation was intended to resolve. 
 
¶6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  To the extent that a strong AU 
presence is likely to help defuse any Union-Island showdown, 
we recommend supporting such an effort at preventive 
diplomacy.  END COMMENT. 
 
McGEE