VZCZCXYZ0013
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYD #0493/01 1071626
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 171626Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7607
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0940
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1528
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1585
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 1488
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1830
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000493 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 
TAGS: PGOV CM KCOR PINR
SUBJECT: CAMEROON OPPOSITION LEADER ON ELECTIONS, 
POSSIBILITY FOR UNREST 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 333 
 
     ¶B. YAOUNDE 445 
     ¶C. YAOUNDE 441 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Katherine Brucker, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (SBU) Bernard "Ben" Muna, head of the newly formed 
opposition coalition Alliance of Progressive Forces told 
Charge April 16 that he feared "generalized violence" if the 
July legislative and municipal elections are fraught with 
fraud.  Pointing to violence that has broken out recently 
among ruling party (Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement, 
CPDM) supporters, Muna asked rhetorically, "if CPDM 
supporters are fed up, what about everybody else?"  While we 
continue to believe that apathy and resignation will lead 
most Cameroonians to accept whatever results the elections 
produce, we are sensitive to the fact that fear of unrest is 
foremost among the concerns of a growing number of political 
leaders.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
CPDM Violence, Foreshadowing More? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ben Muna, formerly of the Social Democratic Front 
and now head of the Alliance of Progressive Forces (AFP), an 
opposition coalition of five parties that is "getting bigger 
daily" and drawing in disgruntled members of the CPDM, called 
on Charge April 16 to express his concerns about the 
potential for unrest should the July legislative and 
municipal elections go badly.  Muna reported that the recent 
internal elections within the ruling CPDM had prompted 
violence ranging from fist-fights, killings and the April 6 
burning of the Chief's palace in Bafia, in the Center 
Province.  "If CPDM supporters are fed up," Muna asked, "what 
about everybody else?" 
 
¶3.  (C) Elaborating on why he thinks there is a risk of 
violence, Muna said "the people have given President Biya 
ample chances to improve the country, and he has failed."  He 
characterized Prime Minister Inoni's April 11 meeting with 
political parties to encourage registration as too little, 
too late.  Voter registration (which will likely close on or 
about April 21) continues to be a problem, he said, and it 
seems unlikely that the Government of Cameroon (GRC) will 
reach its goal of registering 7-8 million voters (some 4 
million were estimated to be on the list for the 2004 
election).  "Massive registration" is needed to instill 
confidence in the process, he said, but the numbers are 
actually dropping in areas "not favorable to the CPDM," he 
alleged.  (Comment:  While falling registration numbers could 
legitimately reflect efforts to remove multiple entries and 
correct other registration errors, as noted in Ref. A,  years 
of selective registration and disappearing voter cards will 
lead Cameroonians to suspect fraud in everything that appears 
to run contrary to the expected.  End Comment) 
 
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Election Timing 
--------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Muna said there had been "some hints" at the April 11 
meeting with the Prime Minister that the GRC has not ruled 
out postponing the (anticipated) July elections to allow more 
time for voter registration.  Still, he mused, more voters 
would not be in the CPDM's interest, as they would most 
likely be opposition supporters. (Comment:  While we have no 
way of knowing what signals were sent in the meeting with the 
PM, Muna's impression runs counter to President Biya's April 
9 message to the Ambassador (Ref. B) that elections would be 
held in July, most likely on July 22.  End Comment) 
 
------------------- 
Prospects for Fraud 
------------------- 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Muna lamented that "massive poverty" in Cameroon, 
coupled with the way elections are organized, makes poll 
workers vulnerable to corruption.  "With what the CPDM has 
stolen," he said, "it can pay off all the people it needs 
to."  Polling places in rural areas are especially easy 
targets, he said, as those manning the voting bureaus often 
are scarcely able to provide for their own needs.  For the 
equivalent of a few dollars, vote-riggers can send the staff 
off to lunch (which many could not afford otherwise) and use 
their absence to remove ballots or stuff boxes.  In some 
instances, he claimed, people have showed up with fully 
prepared ballot boxes and simply switched them with those at 
the polling station. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Muna said he and the AFP were urging people to 
resist the temptation of abandoning the polling stations in 
favor of a meal.  The message: "You have only one day to go 
hungry for free and fair elections in Cameroon.  If you let 
yourself be bought off, you and your children will be hungry 
for the next five years." 
 
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Is there any hope? 
------------------ 
 
¶7.  (U)  Muna outlined several things that would improve the 
electoral process.  "Massive registration" and high voter 
turnout are critical, he said, if for no other reason than to 
give people an informed basis for contesting the results. 
Truly indelible ink is imperative to guard against multiple 
voting (though in principle, the computerized voter lists 
should prevent this from happening).  Voter registration 
lists should be posted at the polling stations well in 
advance, he argued, so people can confirm their registration 
and know where to collect their voter cards.  As for the 2011 
presidential election, Muna said the international community 
would have to be "fully implicated" in the entire process 
(from registration through vote counting) to give 
Cameroonians any assurance of a free and fair vote. 
Otherwise, he warned, "it will be a disaster with violence." 
 
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Comment 
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¶8.  (C)  Muna's comments reinforce the almost total lack of 
faith Cameroonians have in the government's ability or 
willingness to run credible elections.  The combination of 
bureaucratic ineptitude and overt meddling in the 
registration process has dissuaded many from even trying, and 
Cameroon's history of poor elections has people pre-disposed 
to expect the worst in everything.  Predictions of 
election-related unrest have been made to us primarily by 
Muna and his former SDF colleagues; we suspect this stems in 
part from their experience in 1992 when violence broke out in 
the North West province after Biya was declared the winner in 
an election many believe SDF presidential candidate John Fru 
Ndi had won.  As noted in Ref. C, we are inclined to believe 
 
that even disappointed Cameroonians will accept the election 
results, as experience has given them little reason to hope 
for -- and less reason to expect -- real change.  End Comment. 
NELSON