VZCZCXRO1970
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHYD #0418/01 0921529
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021529Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7532
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1506
RUEHMA/AMEMBASSY MALABO 0200
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 1465
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: JULY ELECTIONS APPROACH, UNCERTAINLY 
 
REF: A. 06 YAOUNDE 1164 
 
     ¶B. 06 YAOUNDE 1422 
     ¶C. 06 YAOUNDE 1142 
 
YAOUNDE 00000418  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Legislative and municipal elections in Cameroon most 
likely will be held July 22.  Under that scenario, voter 
registration, in accordance with the law, would end on April 
23, when President Biya would call the elections.  Some here 
hope to register some 8 million voters, a feat that would 
require adding close to a million voters a week to the 
registers before they close.  Significant voter apathy stands 
in the way of what is already a formidable logistical 
challenge.  This message describes the latest administrative 
and political developments related to the upcoming elections. 
 
¶2. (U) VOTER MOBILIZATION.  As part of our cooperative effort 
to urge Cameroonians to register to vote, Ambassador 
Marquardt -- along with his Dutch counterpart and the acting 
UN Resident Representative -- distributed checks March 30 to 
nine local NGOs that will direct voter registration 
activities in Cameroon,s ten provinces.  The groups were 
supplied with UNDP-produced pamphlets and posters explaining 
the registration and voting procedures.  Providing NGOs with 
printed material not only saved money (many groups wanted to 
produce their own handouts) but also helps ensure a 
consistent message on voting and registration procedures. 
Canada handed out checks the previous week, for much the same 
purpose. 
 
¶3. (SBU) VOTER APATHY STILL FAR REACHING. In addition to the 
many ordinary Cameroonians who never bothered to register to 
vote (or who gave up in frustration after trying), many 
others who "ought" to, have not either.  Western embassies 
(including our own), international NGOs and UN bodies, and 
even the National Election Observatory count low numbers of 
registered voters among their Cameroonian employees. 
Prominent Cameroonians are equally apathetic.  Akere Muna, 
well known attorney and Transparency International Vice 
President, brother of both a political party leader and a 
member of government, not to mention the son of a former Vice 
President and Prime Minister of Cameroon, told us March 31 
that he is not registered to vote. Many see it as simply too 
time-consuming and not likely to make any difference. 
 
¶4. (U) IF YOU ARE OLD ENOUGH TO REACH THE LEVER:  Cameroon,s 
Interior Ministry, charged with running the legislative and 
municipal elections slated for July 2007, has made available 
on the internet a province-by-province list of registered 
voters; these are previous voters who have been put onto 
computerized list.  The effort, with technical support from 
UNDP, has already succeeded in bringing unprecedented 
transparency to the deficiencies in Cameroon,s electoral 
rolls.  An embassy search of the Central Province, for 
example, found 22 voters with dates of birth in 1992, far too 
young to vote in Cameroon.  (The minimum age is 20 but the 
youngest registered voter has a date of birth of 2005.)  On 
the flipside, the Central Province also boasts 34 registered 
voters born in 1900 and 115 in 1901!  In terms of voter 
registration, the Government faces a double challenge with 
less than four months until the elections: how to convince 
the jaded Cameroonian population that it is worth the time 
and trouble to register, and that the new computerized system 
will prevent people from exploiting these problematic entries. 
 
¶5. (SBU) SDF MUNA FACTION -- OUT WITH A WHIMPER.  After 
nearly a year of Social Democratic Front (SDF) in-fighting, 
the so-called Muna faction (led by prominent attorney Bernard 
"Ben" Muna, another of Akere Muna's brothers, Ref C) has 
broken from the party to join others in an opposition 
alliance.  Muna dissolved his faction of the SDF, Cameroon's 
leading opposition party, to form the Alliance of Progressive 
Forces (French acronym: AFP), a group of small opposition 
parties. (Reftels provided details on the SDF rift.)  While 
the ADF is unlikely to be much of a force in the upcoming 
elections, the willingness of opposition parties to unite is 
promising, insofar as the opposition's goal of chellenging 
the ruling party is concerned.  As we have reported for some 
time, disarry among the oppostion makes it unnecessary for 
the ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) to 
steal the election -- the splintered opposition is more 
likely to hand it victory. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  MINISTER MARAFA HIMSELF UNEASY.  Ambassador called 
on April 2 on Interior Minister Marafa, whose Ministry 
 
YAOUNDE 00000418  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
(MINADT) is charged with organizing the elections.  The 
Ambassador briefed him on embassy support for registration 
and cast his own recent public diplomacy efforts -- some of 
which have been very critical of administration bungling and 
delay -- in the light of trying to overcome voter apathy by 
raising interest and awareness before registration closes. 
Marafa said he appreciated the support and agreed that 
credibility and success in 2007 is critical to successful 
presidential elections slated for 2011.  He also expressed 
some new frustrations.  He said that the Presidency needs to 
issue a decree spelling out the circumscriptions and other 
parameters for the new municipal councils, following legal 
changes in 2004 that, among other things, will abolish the 
urban councils in major cities like Garoua and Bamenda.  That 
needs to happen as soon as possible, so candidates will know 
what they can run for, and not on the very eve of the calling 
of the elections; otherwise, he would expect a public outcry. 
 The Presidency has had this under review since February, he 
said.  Marafa said he expects elections to be called for July 
22, though under the law they could take place one week 
later; that, however, would leave no margin for error and 
should be avoided, he said.  He also mentioned the 
possibility of a one-month postponement to allow for beter 
preparations, then quickly discounted it.  Marafa said he 
hopes to register one million more voters than the 4.6 
million already on the register from 2004 -- a modest 
ambition that falls far short of what many are describing as 
a prerequisite to success on election day.  Marafa lamented 
that Cameroonians are more interested in the upcoming French 
elections than in their own, and suggested that the Nigerian 
elections are what should really matter in Cameroon. 
MARQUARDT