VZCZCXYZ0021
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0765/01 1131713
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231713Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5981
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0136
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017 
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EARLY SPECULATION OVER 2009 FMLN PRESIDENTIAL 
TICKET. 
 
REF: A. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2008 
 
     ¶B. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2508 
     ¶C. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2972 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY and Comment:  Notwithstanding ongoing media 
speculation regarding possible FMLN presidential candidates 
for the 2009 elections, moderate FMLN Legislative Assembly 
Deputy Hugo Martinez recently outlined to poloff that his 
party has settled on television commentator Mauricio Funes as 
their 2009 presidential candidate, with the FMLN's 
Legislative Assembly delegation chief Salvador Sanchez Ceren 
filling the vice presidential slot.  If Martinez's assertion 
is true, the choice appears to be a carefully-calculated move 
to broaden the party's appeal beyond its loyal activist base, 
which has so far been unsuccessful in efforts to achieve 
national office.  In our view, it is unlikely that the FMLN 
leadership has picked its presidential candidate this early. 
However, a battle still looms ahead between those who want to 
select a "kinder, gentler face" and the Communist Party 
hardliners who favor one of their own.  END SUMMARY and 
Comment. 
 
¶2. (C)  All three of the FMLN's presidential candidates in 
postwar presidential elections have been former guerrilla 
combatants from the five political-military groups that 
formed the FMLN in 1980, and the FMLN has lost every such 
election by margins of 22 to 24 percent.  During 2006, debate 
began to emerge within the party's leadership regarding the 
advisability of choosing a fresh face from outside the ranks 
of party activists for 2009, in hopes of broadening the 
ticket's appeal among the electorate beyond its traditional 
constituency.  Recent media reports have highlighted 
speculation regarding possible FMLN candidates.  Popular FMLN 
Santa Tecla Mayor and former National Mayors Association 
(COMURES) President Oscar Ortiz has been conspicuously absent 
from most such lists.  Ortiz, who was narrowly edged out by 
the late Schafik Handal in his bid to be the party's 2004 
presidential candidate, angered the party's hardliner 
leadership in mid-2006 by unilaterally voicing his interest 
in another possible presidential bid.  FMLN San Salvador 
Mayor Dr. Violeta Menjivar, while still publicly mentioned 
among possible 2009 presidential candidates, has lost ground 
politically since inheriting the capital's near-insoluble 
problems of crime, poverty, overpopulation, and crumbling 
infrastructure.  Soyapango Mayor Carlos "El Diablito" Ruiz, a 
longtime Communist Party stalwart, has shown interest in 
running, but his trademark military garb emblazoned with red 
stars and the Cuban flag savors too much of the past for him 
to have serious prospects as a national candidate.  Party 
Chairman Medardo Gonzalez (a.k.a. "Comandante Milton Mendez") 
appears to have little interest or support in running. 
 
¶3. (C)  Mauricio Funes began his career in broadcast 
journalism during the nation's civil war in 1986, with a 
morning talk show on Channel 12 that served primarily as a 
forum for left-of-center FMLN sympathizers (reftel B).  Funes 
was fired without notice in 2005 by Channel 12's Mexican 
parent company, which cited low ratings for his show. 
Although many leftists charged that Funes's firing had been 
politically-motivated, other political observers and members 
of the media responded that Funes had misused the show to 
promote his own political agenda, and that he also had a 
widespread reputation of being overbearing and difficult to 
work with.  Funes has since reestablished himself with a show 
on the Megavision network's Channel 21, and he also serves as 
an occasional correspondent for the Spanish-language version 
of CNN.  In 2003 Funes angled for an offer to become the 
FMLN's 2004 presidential candidate, but was reportedly 
rebuffed with the admonishment that he should first join the 
party, and that in any event the VP spot would be the very 
best that might be possible under any circumstances.  (Note: 
Prior to the FMLN's 2003 selection of Handal as its 
candidate, internal ARENA party polls showed that Funes might 
beat an ARENA candidate by approximately 10 percent.  End 
note.)  The once-divorced Funes recently married the 
Brazilian Embassy's Cultural Affairs Officer Wanda Pignato, 
whose reportedly close ties to higher political circles in 
Brazil has led to speculation and rumors that Funes might be 
"Lula's candidate". 
 
¶4. (C)  Ceren, a Popular Liberation Forces (FPL) guerrilla 
leader who fought under the nom de guerre "Comandante Leonel 
Gonzalez", will likely wield the real power should the FMLN 
prevail in 2009.  Former FMLN Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE) Magistrate Julio Hernandez, now National Coordinator of 
the new Revolutinary Democratic Front (FDR), has long 
asserted to poloff that with all moderate voices within the 
FMLN now expelled or otherwise silenced, the party might 
 
explore running a moderate-sounding figurehead for president 
in 2009, with a reliable member of the old guard in the 
number-two slot to enforce discipline to the hardliners' 
orthodox creed.  (See reftel C.)  The FMLN's veteran caudillo 
and former Party Chairman Ceren is the perfect candidate to 
fulfill such a role. 
 
¶5. (C)  COMMENT:  After years of putting forward lackluster 
candidates who remind most voters of the nation's painful and 
bloody past, the FMLN may finally have learned its lesson. 
With a more attractive candidate, likely financial backing 
from Venezuela's Chavez (reftel A), and President Saca 
struggling to address the nation's staggering violent crime, 
the FMLN has greater expectations than ever before for 2009. 
Still, nearly two years remain before the elections, and any 
show of ideological independence or other misstep by Funes 
between now and then could bring down the wrath of 
hardliners, and lead to the political exile already 
well-populated by those who have run afoul of the FMLN's 
orthodox faithful. 
Glazer

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