VZCZCXRO1575
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0496/01 0921116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021116Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8268
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
SINGAPORE PLEASE PASS TO DAS ERIC JOHN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: CAMBODIA'S COMMUNE ELECTIONS:  CPP WINNING AMID 
LOWER VOTER TURNOUT 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Based on preliminary reports from the 
April 1 commune elections, the ruling party of Prime Minister 
Hun Sen has won a majority of the nation's 1,621 communes, 
with the opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) coming in a clear 
second.  It appears that most of the FUNCINPEC votes went to 
the SRP, with both FUNCINPEC and the Norodom Ranariddh Party 
(NRP) gaining only a small number of the overall seats. 
Turnout among registered voters appears to have dropped 
significantly since the 2002 and 2003 elections; the National 
Election Committee (NEC) estimated 70 percent turnout while 
other sources place it lower.  Electoral complaints during 
the pre-election period reportedly have dropped since 2002, 
although most sources indicate that there were 
irregularities.  Inability to find one's name on the voter 
lists and to figure out the right polling station continued 
to be a limited, but regular, complaint and one that the UNDP 
had hoped would be rectified during the 2007 balloting.  Even 
before the polls closed on April 1, political parties were 
looking to the national elections in 2008.  A report of the 
direct observations of Embassy's 42 teams of observers will 
be sent septel.  End Summary. 
 
Election Day 2007:  CPP Wins, Sam Rainsy the Clear Number Two 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Although the results will not be official until 
April 24, preliminary results from the NEC and the parties 
indicate that the ruling Cambodian People's party (CPP) of 
Prime Minister Hun Sen has won a clear majority of the 
nation's 1,621 communes, with the CPP estimating that they 
will hold the commune chief position in 1,590 or more 
communes.  The opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) will receive 
27-29 communes, FUNCINPEC perhaps two communes, and none 
likely for the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP).  CPP senior 
official Tep Ngorn told us that -- based on CPP information 
-- CPP will take over 7,000 of the more than 11,000 commune 
council seats, SRP will be get over 2,300 and FUNCINPEC and 
NRP will get less than 400 seats each. 
 
¶3.  (U)  SRP Secretary General Mu Sochua agreed with Tep 
Ngorn's prediction, but cited many irregularities in the 
April 1 electoral contest.  While noting that intimidation 
was less than in previous elections, Mu Sochua nevertheless 
said that the elections had been marred by vote-buying and 
overly complicated NEC procedures.  The SRP official also 
noted that a grenade had gone off near the home of one of the 
SRP candidates in Kampong Chhnang province.  She said that 
the SRP will request the NEC to reorganize balloting in two 
areas where the alleged irregularities may have undermined 
the outcome of the vote.  Noting that the SRP appears to have 
lost 3 of its 6 Phnom Penh communes, Mu Sochua said that the 
SRP has won in as many as 27-29 communes -- an increase from 
the 13 won in 2002.  In addition, the strong support for SRP 
overall means that the opposition party will have 
representation in more than 90 percent of all the communes. 
In 2002, the SRP had 11 percent of the total vote; this time 
SRP will get an estimated 26 percent. 
 
¶4.  (U)  Ranariddh's party spokesperson blamed the party's 
poor performance on Prince Ranariddh being out of the 
country, the party's inexperience and the dispute between 
FUNCINPEC and the NRP that confused voters.  The NRP noted 
irregularities associated with the polling as well, citing 
alleged cases in Kampong Cham province where some commune 
chiefs collected voters' ID information and only made it 
available to those who voted for the ruling party. 
 
Low Voter Turnout 
----------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  All the parties and organizations whom the Embassy 
contacted noted the low voter turnout as compared with 2002 
and 2003, where the turnout among registered voters was 80 
percent or more.  The CPP indicated that the lower turnout 
could reflect voter apathy.  Another possibility was that the 
polling day fell too close to the Cambodian New Year, and 
many workers would be unwilling to use their holiday time and 
transport money to travel to their home provinces twice 
within a two-week period.  Most of the garment factories in 
Phnom Penh were closed on April 1, but it is unclear if the 
majority of garment workers took advantage to go to the 
polls, as many are not registered in Phnom Penh.  In Poipet, 
the casino management only decided on April 1 after the 
polling had already begun to allow their workers to go vote; 
many lived too far from Poipet to return quickly and 
therefore could not vote. 
 
¶6.  (U)  In general and throughout the country, voters 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000496  002 OF 002 
 
 
flocked to the polls early in the morning and many were in 
lines outside Phnom Penh voting stations well before the 0700 
opening time.  Most voters wanted to cast their ballots early 
and go on to work or the market, and not have to stand in 
line during the heat of the day.  By late morning, the number 
of voters coming to the polls had dwindled to little more 
than a sporadic trickle.  There were no reports of voters 
still queued at 1500, when the polls officially closed.  By 
Cambodian law, anyone still in line at 1500 who had not cast 
a ballot would have been allowed to vote. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Both the CPP and SRP have noted that the political 
landscape in Cambodia has changed, as reflected in the 2007balloting.  Whereas 
in 2002 and 2003 there were essentially 
three political parties (CPP, FUNCINPEC, SRP) competing for 
power, now there are only two -- the CPP and SRP.  FUNCINPEC 
has largely been destroyed, with many of its voters being 
picked up by the SRP.  Following the closing of the polls on 
April 1, Pol/Econ Chief spoke with Mu Sochua, who indicated 
that Rainsy is keeping his lines of communication open to 
both Ranariddh and Kem Sokha as the SRP leader believes that 
he can mount an effective campaign against the CPP if other 
opposition figures join him.   Meanwhile, Kem Sokha has told 
us that he plans to submit his party accreditation to the 
Ministry of Interior in May following his resignation from 
the Cambodian Center for Human Rights (CCHR).  He is 
tentatively planning a congress for July and at this stage, 
appears uninterested in an alliance with Rainsy.  Kem Sokha 
attributed the lower voter turnout to the public's 
disillusionment with the political choices available. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Although the voter turnout is less than in 
previous elections, 60-70 percent overall turnout remains 
impressive and all agree that the election was marred by less 
violence and intimidation than in the past.  However, there 
remain problems with irregularities, purposeful or 
accidental, that the NEC remains unwilling or unable to 
address.  These include the confusion over voters lists and 
polling stations, as well as the presence of unauthorized 
local authorities in the polling sites in many areas of the 
country.  We agree that the political landscape has evolved 
into what more closely approximates a two-party system. 
FUNCINPEC and the NRP will need to do some serious thinking 
about their respective political futures, and decide whether 
it's better to join with one of the two main parties or be 
relegated to the category that includes the many "small" 
political parties receiving little to no public attention. 
End Comment. 
 
 
MUSSOMELI