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DE RUEHBH #0550/01 1202112
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 302112Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY NASSAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4168
INFO RUEHBE/AMEMBASSY BELMOPAN 0067
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN 5581
RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN 3645
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 8513
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE 3522
RUEHSP/AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN 4683
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 2802
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0425

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000550 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR RCBUDDEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCOR BF
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION ROUNDUP: MOMENTUM TO FNM AS PARTIES 
HIT ISSUES 
 
REF: A. NASSAU 516 
     ¶B. NASSAU 435 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires D. Brent Hardt for reasons 1.4(b) and 
(d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In the final run up to May 2 elections, 
violence has faded, replaced with isolated vote-buying 
allegations, though these are not expected to compromise 
outcomes.  In its recently released party platform, the 
opposition Free National Movement (FNM) has promised to 
restrict foreign purchase of land, maintain a neutral foreign 
policy, and push good governance measures, including 
accession to anti-corruption treaties, ethical standards, 
open contracting and a freedom of information act.  The 
ruling Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) continued to focus on 
its expanding international engagement, anchor developments 
on the outer islands, and popular social development 
programs.  While the race is still too close to call, the FNM 
has clearly gained momentum in recent rallies and in early 
voting by police and military, making it a slight favorite to 
win power.  The PLP privately concedes loss of national 
momentum, but continues to rely on influence in individual 
constituencies and better name recognition among its 
candidates.  Regardless of which party wins, the U.S. can 
expect a strong bilateral partner.  END SUMMARY. 
 
FNM PROMISES OPEN GOVERNMENT; PLP FOCUSES ON ECONOMY 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2. (C) Just 10 days before elections, the political parties 
released their party platforms.  While the late release is 
telling of the general focus on personalities over issues in 
Bahamian elections, key differences have emerged and the 
platforms support election themes.  The FNM "Manifesto 2007" 
focuses on its good governance election theme, promising 
accession to anti-corruption treaties, ethical standards for 
elected representatives, open contracting and a freedom of 
information act.  It also continues criticism of the PLP's 
"anchor project" development plans, promising not to sell off 
Bahamian land to foreign investors.  On foreign policy, the 
Manifesto is vague, broadly promising non-intervention and 
regional cooperation, including a pledge to advocate for 
greater international support for Haiti.  It does not contain 
the FNM's private indications to us that it intends to 
downgrade the status of the Bahamian mission in Cuba from an 
Embassy to a Consulate or to end the Cuban eye-care program. 
(Comment: FNM criticism of foreign investment is populist 
politicking, playing on Bahamian fears that foreigners are 
buying up prime Bahamian lands.  With a huge trade deficit, 
foreign investment is required to maintain the Bahamian 
balance of payments, and absent a miraculous rise of Bahamian 
industry, foreign investment will remain central to the 
Bahamian economy under either party.  Foreign investment 
boomed under the FNM during its last term in office.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶3.  (C) The PLP platform paper "Action Agenda 2007" is 
similarly broad-based, touting economic gains under PLP 
leadership and promising to continue plans to draw investors 
-- and needed infrastructure -- to outer islands in need of 
an economic boost.  It also promises to continue the popular 
development of community-based initiatives, such as the 
successful and award-winning community policing program, 
while expanding social services.  On foreign policy, the PLP 
promised to continue expanding its international influence 
and -- while not mentioning Cuba specifically -- lauded its 
new presence abroad under PLP rule.  It also pledges new 
embassies in Geneva, Latin America and Africa as part of a 
more "progressive" foreign policy.  Finally, it promised to 
pursue free trade agreements with the EU and US.  (Comment: 
Given that the Government collects revenues mainly through 
import duties, free trade would require a major restructuring 
of the tax and government revenue systems -- contrary to 
another PLP pre-election promise.  End Comment.) 
 
CLOSE RACE STILL TENSE, LEADING TO PRE-ELECTION SHENANIGANS 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Following an early outbreak of violence (reftel A), 
campaigning has become more civil.  While isolated incidents 
continue -- most recently a series of scuffles during early 
 
polling -- the general mood is again respectful as candidates 
walk amongst rival groups and in the community without 
violence.  In such a close race, however, people remain 
nervous ad other shenanigans are replacing election violenc 
in the fight for precious votes.  There have ben credible 
allegations of PLP vote-buying in at east three 
constituncies, with party workers offring between $250 and 
$2000 for votes.  In one case, workers allegedly offered the 
cash in return for cell-phone camera pictures of PLP ballots, 
causing the parliamentary registrar in charge of voting to 
ban cell phones from polling stations.  The PLP also alleges 
that the FNM is buying votes, but no press reports have 
supported these allegations.  Political campaigns on both 
sides state candidly that they have been approached for money 
by some voters.  Candidates have not been tied to vote-buying 
and these isolated events are not expected to compromise 
elections. 
 
¶5. (C)  Election day may bring some confrontations at polling 
places.  Pol Chief attended a planning meeting of one of the 
FNM candidates in a battleground constituency where the 
candidate told his election day workers that he expected 
trouble at one of the two polling places in the constituency. 
 He instructed his workers not to cause trouble, but with 
about 150 supporters outside each of the polling stations in 
his district on election day, confrontations are possible. 
 
POSSIBLE RED TIDE? 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C) In a small nation dominated by personal 
relationships, most voters want to support the winning party 
and lay claim to post-election spoils.  Having an opposition 
MP representing your district brings limited rewards for 
voters.  For this reason, there is a history of late shifts 
in voting as one party emerges as a clear leader and voters 
rush to jump on the bandwagon.  In this context, April 26th 
-- early voting for police and military -- was an important 
day in the campaign period.  During early polling, Poloff 
noted an overwhelming number of red FNM flags, cars, posters 
and T-shirt wearing supporters at the polling stations.  This 
perception was probably not lost on the logjam of potential 
bandwagon jumpers who paraded past polling stations all day 
attempting to gauge the momentum. 
 
¶7.  (C) Regardless of neutral observations showing FNM 
momentum, each party scrambled to claim victory after early 
polling, though the tone of PLP spin was decidedly more 
somber.  In discussion with Poloff, FNM Deputy Leader 
Symonette exuberantly claimed 80 percent of the early vote, 
and proudly claimed clear momentum based on more visible 
public support.  PLP Minister of Education Sears also claimed 
victory, but with a more restrained explanation: "Don't judge 
by what you see on the street.  The FNM may have more money, 
more flags and more T-shirts, but we have more homes.  When 
you get into the constituency races, we have the lead.  They 
are running as one man - Ingraham - who has great support, 
but we are running better candidates."  These remarks echo 
Prime Minister Christie's surprising recent speech promising 
24 specific constituency victories despite mounting FNM 
support: "Cars don't vote! Lamp posts don't vote! Bumper 
stickers don't vote!  Posters don't vote! . . . You ga vote!" 
 
COMMENT: STRONG, DEMOCRATIC PARTNER CERTAIN 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  Sears' frank admissions, and Christie's surprising 
speech, tell the story of the election.  The FNM is clearly 
gaining momentum and may now enjoy better broad-based support 
leading to election.  If this were a presidential election, 
FNM leader Hubert Ingraham would win.  However, constituency 
by constituency parliamentary match-ups are not as easy to 
determine, and the overall race is still too close to call. 
Ingraham's credibility as a decisive leader, the focus on 
scandal, and the promise to clean up government, has gained 
traction.  The PLP has some individually strong candidates 
and better name recognition that offer the advantages of 
incumbency.  The ruling party is banking that the strength 
and record of their individual candidates coupled with 
assiduous constituency work over the past five years will be 
sufficient to carry them to victory one constituency at a 
time.  The outcome is uncertain, with Post currently 
 
estimating over 1/3 of the constituencies up for grabs. 
 
¶9. (C) What is certain is that the election will produce a 
strong democratic partner (reftel B).  Both parties will 
support counter-drug and migrant interdiction operations and 
work closely with us to strengthen our Third Border against 
terrorism.  On foreign policy, the FNM is likely to be less 
involved in Non-Aligned initiatives, and more focused on its 
interests in the U.S., while the PLP is likely to continue 
expanding The Bahamas international engagement as a strong 
NAM and CARICOM partner.  The FNM's likely focus on good 
governance is urgently needed, and the potential withdrawal 
of PLP overtures toward Cuba under the FNM would be welcome. 
Post has maintained good working relationships with the PLP 
as evidenced by the Megaports and CSI initiatives, and has 
moved the government to rethink its approach to human rights 
votes at the UN.  Whoever is elected, we will move quickly to 
press the new government for a rapid conclusion of a 
Proliferations Security Initiative agreement, urge their 
continued focus on improving airport security, and seek to 
resolve the future of The Bahamas Flight Information Region. 
HARDT