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O 271359Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000858 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS PREF KDEM BT NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM SAYS NOVEMBER ELECTION LIKELY; POLICE 
WILL ENFORCE LAW AND ORDER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala told the 
Ambassador April 27 that the eight parties would set a date 
for the Constituent Assembly election "very soon," likely for 
late November 2007 following Nepal's autumn holidays.  The 
Ambassador stressed that an election date announcement was 
key to keeping the peace process on track and also encouraged 
the PM to work with relevant ministries to develop a timeline 
of necessary pre-election tasks.  The Ambassador implored the 
PM to address the dire security environment in Nepal's 
districts; the PM responded that he was confident the police 
would begin to enforce law and order.  The Ambassador 
informed the PM that the 4,600 stored U.S. rifles planned for 
the Nepal Army had to be redirected for use in Lebanon. 
Expressing appreciation for the GON's support in moving 
forward Bhutanese refugee resettlement, the Ambassador 
requested the PM's continued assistance on exit procedures 
for the refugees.  In response to the PM's inquiries 
regarding Chinese policy in Nepal, the Ambassador emphasized 
that China's number one priority was Tibet, and that the U.S. 
had no indication that the Chinese government was providing 
support to the Maoists. 
 
PM Anticipates November Election 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The Ambassador stressed to Prime Minister Girija 
Prasad Koirala on April 27 that to keep the peace process on 
track, the GON had to work with the Election Commission (EC) 
and announce a new Constituent Assembly (CA) election date. 
The PM said the eight parties would announce the date "very 
soon" and he thought the election would follow the conclusion 
of Nepal's final fall festival, Chhat, on November 16.  The 
Ambassador stressed that, once the government had decided on 
a date, the EC, Home Ministry, and Ministry for Peace and 
Reconstruction, as well as the UN Mission to Nepal (UNMIN), 
would have to set a series of milestones to ensure the GON 
accomplished necessary pre-election tasks.  First and 
foremost, a dialogue with marginalized groups had to be 
conducted to ensure their buy-in to the electoral process.  A 
constitutional amendment and election bill would have to be 
passed, Phase II vetting of cantonments (e.g. expulsion of 
non-combatants and minors) completed, and law and order 
re-established across the country to ensure a secure 
environment for the election. 
 
Law-and-Order Crisis Continues 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C)  The Ambassador highlighted to the PM the continued 
security crisis across Nepal's countryside, imploring the PM 
to enforce law and order against Maoist abuses and address 
instability across Nepal's southern Terai due to agitating 
marginalized groups.  The Ambassador said that, in recent 
trips outside the capital, he and Emboffs had witnessed no 
improvements in the security situation.  Emboffs had heard 
reports that the Maoist Youth Communist League were teaching 
recruits how to steal ballot boxes; moreover Maoist 
perpetrators of violence faced no legal ramifications.  The 
PM said he was confident that the police would now begin to 
enforce law and order. The Ambassador stressed that the Nepal 
Police needed more that just additional resources, they 
needed strong leadership and a morale boost to carry out 
their jobs. 
 
Ambassador Asks PM for Messages to Carry to Washington 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  The Ambassador said he would be returning to 
Washington for consultations and asked the PM if he had any 
messages to convey.  The PM said, "you know what is best," 
agreeing with the Ambassador that the focus had to be on 
securing additional resources to support a successful CA 
election.  The PM asked whether the U.S. was reconsidering 
its terrorist label for the Maoists.  The Ambassador said the 
 
KATHMANDU 00000858  002 OF 003 
 
 
U.S. had no intention of reconsidering the terrorist label or 
U.S. contact policy with the Maoists until they changed their 
behavior and joined the political mainstream. 
 
PM Pushing UNMIN to Begin Vetting Process 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Dr. Suresh Chalise, the PM's Foreign Policy Advisor, 
said he had been pushing Ian Martin, Chief of UNMIN, to begin 
Phase II of arms management -- vetting of the 30,000 
purported People's Liberation Army (PLA) combatants in 28 
cantonment sites under UN monitoring.  Chalise expressed 
frustration that the Maoists were paralyzing the process and 
stressed that Martin had to "assert himself" to encourage 
forward movement in arms management.  The Ambassador agreed 
that the vetting process needed to begin and implored the PM 
as well to pressure the Maoists to that end.  The PM asked 
the Ambassador what future options the GON might explore 
beyond integrating Maoists into GON security forces.  The 
Ambassador said that the GON should look to the international 
community for help in rehabilitation, such as vocational 
training for agriculture and industry.  If the Nepal Army 
were downsized, the Ambassador added, former soldiers would 
also need options for employment. 
 
Ambassador Informs PM that Rifles Were Redirected 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  (C)  The Ambassador told the PM that the 4,600 U.S. 
rifles planned for the Nepal Army that had been sitting in 
storage facilities, had been redirected for use in Lebanon. 
(Note:  The PM had no immediate reaction to this news.  End 
note.) 
 
Exit Permission Next Hurdle for Refugee Resettlement 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶7.  (C)  The Ambassador expressed his appreciation to the PM 
for the GON's cooperation in moving forward on U.S. 
resettlement efforts for Bhutanese refugees.  The Ambassador 
emphasized that the next hurdle would be securing exit 
permission for the approximately 1,000 Bhutanese per month 
that would need to be processed, asking for the PM's and 
Chalise's support in tackling this necessary step for 
successful resettlement. 
 
PM Curious on China's Priorities in Nepal 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  The PM asked the Ambassador for his thoughts on 
China's policy in Nepal; Koirala appeared to imply that there 
might be a regional rivalry between Indian and China in Nepal 
and that China might be secretly supporting the Maoists. 
(Note:  The PM was scheduled to meet with the new Chinese 
Ambassador later in the day. End Note.)  The Ambassador 
emphasized that China's number one priority in Nepal was 
Tibet, which colored all other policies.  While not pushing a 
particular type of government for Nepal, China was interested 
in stability at its border, the Ambassador said, and would 
not want to see Nepal splinter along ethnic lines.  The 
Ambassador hypothesized that China wanted to keep 
communication channels open with the Maoists in case they 
were able to take over the government.  However, the United 
States had no knowledge of the Chinese government providing 
support to the Maoists; any arms coming to the Maoists from 
China were likely through black market and unofficial 
channels.  The Ambassador noted India's political, cultural, 
economic and historic ties to Nepal; China appeared to 
acknowledge India's dominance in Nepal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  While it is heartening to hear the PM will work 
toward the announcement of a new Constituent Assembly 
election date in November, the eight parties will have to 
agree.  This is always an arduous process and one fraught 
with the potential for a variety of outcomes.  Current calls 
by the Maoists for a referendum on the monarchy or a 
 
KATHMANDU 00000858  003 OF 003 
 
 
declaration of a republic could easily undermine the search 
for consensus.  Without an official election date and a 
timeline of necessary pre-election tasks, Nepal is not likely 
to make much progress toward peace and democracy.  We will 
continue to push to end the ambiguity, highlighting the 
importance of an election for Nepal's future as a democracy. 
The PM's seeming passivity on enforcing law and order is 
disturbing.  We will keep up the pressure on the GON at the 
highest levels to direct and support the Nepal Police to 
counter Maoist abuses and deal responsibly with agitating 
groups in Nepal's southern Terai.  Without improved law and 
order, the potential for a credible CA election will 
disappear. 
MORIARTY