VZCZCXRO0405
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0024/01 1091048
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 191048Z APR 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0097
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI PRIORITY 0090
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI PRIORITY 0092
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0056
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000024 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  4/19/2017 
TAGS: EINV EPET ENGR PREL IR
SUBJECT: IRAN OIL OFFICIAL SHOPS AROUND FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000024  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office - Dubai, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(SBU) Summary:  The National Iranian Oil Company seeks 
investments from international companies to increase recovery 
capabilities, said Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Gholamhossein 
Nozari at Dubai's 15th annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas 
Conference April 15-17.  Nozari repeatedly stressed Iran's 
openness to foreign investment in the oil sector.  Chairman and 
CEO of FACTS Global Energy, USA Fereidun Fesharaki said his 
company expects to see much smaller gas export volumes coming 
out of Iran due to domestic needs, pricing, and political 
factors.  Neil Patrick from the International Crisis Group 
called on Saudi Arabia - in particular - to ease regional 
tensions by interfacing with former President Rafsanjani and 
Secretary of the National Security Council Larijani.  Rutgers 
 
SIPDIS 
University professor Hooshang Amirahmadi said that the stalemate 
of "no peace but no war" that has defined US-Iran relations for 
the past 28 years cannot continue.  One US service sector 
company employee complained to IRPoff that American companies 
continue to "lose out" as they stand back and watch their 
European competitors do business in Iran.  End Summary. 
 
2.(SBU) Singapore-based Conference Connection Group organized 
the 15th annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference (MPGC) 
in Dubai April 15-17.  The two-day event focused primarily on 
pricing, risk management, downstream projects and upstream 
outlooks, with Iran only a small component of the conference. 
(Note:  This cable focuses solely on the Iran-related content of 
the conference.  Most conference presentations are available 
upon request.  Endnote)  Iran Deputy Petroleum Minister 
Gholamhossein Nozari gave one of two ministerial addresses, 
joined by UAE Minister of Energy Mohamed bin Dhaen Al Hamli. 
Neil Patrick from the International Crisis Group and Hooshang 
Amirahmadi, Rutgers University professor and president of the 
American Iranian Council discussed the geopolitical and economic 
impact of the Iranian government on the region.  One conference 
participant estimated that roughly 450 participants gathered in 
Dubai for the event but said the real players did not attend the 
plenary sessions because they were busy holding meetings 
off-site. 
 
Iran: open for business 
---------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU) Gholamhossein Nozari -- who is both the Deputy Oil 
Minister and the Managing Director of the National Iranian Oil 
Company (NIOC) -- addressed participants at the MPGC for roughly 
15 minutes, covering the current and future development of 
Iran's oil and gas fields.  Nozari's speech had no political 
content and consisted of a general overview of Iran's energy 
sector; there was no question and answer session after his 
speech.  At least five times he stressed that Iran is open to 
foreign investment in the energy sector and that the NIOC is 
looking forward to cooperating with international companies to 
develop Iran's oil reserves (44% of its hydrocarbons) and its 
gas reserves (56%).  The NIOC would like international support 
to increase its recovery capabilities, said Nozari, particularly 
in the Azadegan, Yadavaran, and Kish fields.  Nozari said crude 
oil made up 92% of Iran's hydrocarbon production in 2005, but 
expected this number to decrease to 76% of production by 2015. 
Nozari predicted only a minimal increase in Iran's oil 
production through 2015, but a four-fold increase in gas 
production. 
 
Future gas projections 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U)  In the portion of his presentation that covered Iran, 
Fereidun Fesharaki, CEO and Chairman of FACTS Global Energy, USA 
predicted reduced natural gas exports from Iran in the future. 
FACTS forecasts that Iran has a lifetime liquefied natural gas 
export ceiling of 20-30 million tons and "small" volumes of 
natural gas exports due to: 
-- large domestic grid at prices of 1 cent/cubic meter; 
-- massive domestic gas injection requirements of some 10 
billion cubic feet/day; 
-- massive domestic gas-based petroleum projects; 
-- compressed natural gas projects will provide a major volume 
of domestic gasoline supplies as early as the end of this 
decade; 
-- and major political opposition to gas exports. 
 
Geopolitical perspective 
----------------------------- 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000024  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
5.(U) Neil Patrick from the International Crisis Group called on 
Gulf states to join together and collectively raise the "Arab" 
flag and communicate red lines in their dealings with Iran 
regarding Iraq, Palestine-Israel, and Iranian-Syrian relations. 
Patrick called on Arab states - led by Saudi Arabia - to be more 
vocal in determining regional policies.  Patrick recommended to 
Arab states to maintain dialogue with more "moderate" Iranian 
leaders, such as former President Rafsanjani and Secretary of 
the National Security Council Larijani, to advance Arab 
interests without provoking Iran. 
 
6.(U) Iranian American Council USA President and Rutgers 
University professor Hooshang Amirahmadi said the "no peace, but 
yet no war" mentality that has dominated US-Iran relations for 
the past 28 years cannot continue.  Hooshang gave a very 
impassioned presentation on Iran's "mismanaged" foreign policy 
and Iran's historical lack of trust vis-`-vis the West which he 
said has culminated in the current "spiraling conflict with the 
US."  Answering questions from participants, Hooshang asserted 
that USG intentions include regime change. 
 
7.(S) Comment:  Because there were no questions after Nozari's 
speech, it was difficult to gauge audience reaction to his calls 
for foreign investment.   While US company officials openly 
engaged with IRPoff on the subject of Iran during conference 
breaks, non-US company officials shied away once they learned 
IRPoff was a US diplomat.  American comments were mostly 
complaints that their European competitors continue to turn a 
profit in Iran, while they are forced to stand on the sidelines. 
 One employee from India's Reliance Energy quickly headed for 
the door after he confided in another conference participant - 
in front of IRPoff - that Reliance's business with Iran is still 
strong but has tapered off somewhat in recent months.  End 
comment. 
BURNS