VZCZCXRO1064
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0396/01 1010953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110953Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0933
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//POLAD J2/J5//

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000396 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS 
TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS 
PLEASE PASS ALSO AID/AFR 
 
E.O. 12598:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID PHUM GV
SUBJECT: Guinean National Assembly to Address Electoral Bills, Prep 
for Legislative Elections 
 
REF: Conakry 155 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  As the Guinean National Assembly begins its 
annual 45-day session, the details of the 2007 legislative elections 
are both a matter of focus and very much in flux.  Four bills on the 
electoral process, negotiated during the political dialogues of the 
ad hoc committee last August-September, are before the legislature. 
Some members, of both the majority and opposition, believe the new 
Minister of Internal Affairs and Security should be permitted to 
review the draft legislation; members of the opposition would also 
like to reopen two of the bills given the new political climate. 
That said, these bills are likely to move forward through the 
legislative process over the next few weeks. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Opposition members plan to propose that large numbers of 
local officials, now centrally appointed, should become elected 
positions in order to provide better assurance that electoral 
reforms are carried out.  They seek to implement this change, which 
would require constitutional amendment, before any legislative 
elections.  Even if this proposal fails, as it is likely to in the 
near term, ruling and opposition legislators agree, and the donor 
community concurs, that Guinea will not be prepared to hold 
legislative elections by their scheduled June 2007 date, if such 
elections are to be free and fair.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
PUP says June 2007 is too soon for elections 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) State and USAID officers, along with other donors' 
technical staff, met April 2 with Elhadj Banire Diallo, chair of the 
majority party PUP's parliamentary committee to discuss the status 
of 2007 legislative election preparations.  Noting that he is a 
professor of statistics and probability, Diallo said his formal 
training and life experience tell him Guinea will not hold 
legislative elections in June 2007. 
 
¶4. (SBU) there are four electoral bills before the current session. 
If passed, these would modify the electoral code; define the status 
of opposition parties; finance political parties, and create an 
independent national electoral commission (CENI) to co-administer 
the elections with the government. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Diallo said some National Assembly members, including 
members of his own party, want the new Minister of Internal Affairs 
and Security, Beau Keita, to review the draft legislation and 
present it to the new cabinet, as was done by his predecessor. 
Diallo, while not wholly opposed, feared another revision would 
further delay the legislative elections, which most Guineans and 
international observers already agree cannot take place in June, as 
scheduled. The draft legislation was to be presented to the plenary 
session of legislature in December 2006.  Civil unrest and strikes 
in January and February of this year further prevented any special 
session. 
 
-------------------------- 
Opposition Trying for More 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The donor group also met with Ousmane Bah, parliamentary 
group chair of  opposition party Union pour le Progres et le 
Renouveau (UPR).  UPR is the only opposition political party 
currently represented in the National Assembly, so Bah served as 
informal spokesman for all the opposition parties in this forum. 
Bah claimed the opposition has not yet had a chance to debate the 
draft legislation in plenary, but conceded that most opposition 
party members would support it if it were put up for a vote. 
(Comment: So far, the bills on the agenda have not come up for 
parliamentary action, so it is not certain if, as Bah seems to fear, 
PUP will curtail debate.  In any event, his party, along with other 
opposition members, was involved in negotiating the texts of these 
bills in mid-2006.  Bah told us in a lunch at the Ambassador's in 
late March, however, that he wanted to seize the opportunity of a 
new government to reopen the texts for further negotiation, seeing 
the opposition in a stronger position now). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Bah outlined concerns regarding financing the CENI.  The 
draft legislation calls only for the creation of the body, and not 
financing.  Bah said he sought to ensure the CENI financing would be 
on the agenda for the first budgetary session. (Note: As of this 
writing, the item is not/not on the agenda for the first budgetary 
session, but that session is delayed in any event since the budget 
has not yet been submitted.) 
 
------------------------------------- 
Local Representation is Key to Reform 
 
CONAKRY 00000396  002 OF 002 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Bah argued electoral reforms can not be fully carried out 
unless there is direct representation at the local level. Therefore, 
he seeks to have positions that are now centrally appointed by the 
executive (chef de quartier and chef du district) become elected 
positions. Bah said ensuring that these positions are elected will 
ensure accountability, and prepare the base for broader electoral 
reforms. The opposition wants this concession in place before 
legislative elections, even if the administration of the concession 
necessitates delaying the elections until 2008, or beyond. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The donor group cautioned Bah that reforming the electoral 
process should be a work in progress; otherwise, significant delay 
and obstacles could arise.  The world and the Guinean people 
themselves were watching and would not appreciate lost momentum. 
(Note: at the biwekkly G-8 ambassadorial meeting April 10, 
participants concurred that donors should push back on this 
opposition initiative.  The bills negotiated last fall should go 
forward, we agreed, and legislative elections should not await 
revamping Guinea's entire administrative structure.  That said, the 
G-8 reps agreed that preparations for4 the legislative elections 
would require a delay of several months from June.) 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The donor community has speculated that Guinea would not 
be prepared for legislative elections in June 2007.  That members of 
the National Assembly are openly saying so is not surprising.  The 
opposition is clearly feeling its oats.  The Prime Minister and his 
team will need to meet their commitment for ongoing political 
dialogue to design a path forward that adequately addresses all 
parties' concerns. 
 
WINN