VZCZCXRO2288
PP RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0068 1020826
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 120826Z APR 07
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0445
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 0693
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0489
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS TH
SUBJECT: MILITARY SOURCES EXPRESS CONFIDENCE IN POLITICAL CONTROL 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.    While keeping a close watch for any Thai 
Rak Thai (TRT) resurgence, military officers in the northern 
region are confident that the new constitution will pass in a 
public referendum and the TRT party will be disbanded.  Former 
northern army head Gen Saprang Kalayanamitra, now Assistant 
Secretary General of the Council for National Security (CNS), is 
 
SIPDIS 
likely out of the running for Army Commander as a result of the 
same tough military style that won him admiration when he was 
directing his remarks against then-Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra.  End summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) During a visit to Chiang Mai for a counter-narcotics 
meeting April 3-4, Defense Minister Gen Boonrot Somthat and 3rd 
Army chief Lt Gen Jiradet Kotcharat told a senior Office of 
Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) official that Thaksin and TRT 
pose little threat and that the political situation is under 
control.  Much more worrisome, they said, is the situation in 
the south, which they believe will need at least five years to 
set straight. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The two generals expressed confidence that the new 
constitution will pass and that subsequent elections will not 
bring a return of Thaksin or his nominees.  Boonrot told the 
ONCB official that TRT is certain to be disbanded around the end 
of May by a Constitutional Court ruling and that the Assets 
Scrutiny Committee will finish off Thaksin. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The ONCB source noted that the latest army reshuffles 
in the north, including command changes in the 32nd, 33rd 
Military Circles and the Military Districts of Chiang Rai, 
Phayao and Uttaradit, signaled the army's determination to 
ensure the right political outcome in future elections by 
closely monitoring the actions and movements of key TRT 
supporters.   As an additional measure to keep the political 
situation under control, Boonrot and Jiradet pointed to the 
draft military act, said to be copied from the U.S. Homeland 
Security Act, which gives the Internal Security Operations 
Command (ISOC) oversight of all government intelligence work. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Although Gen Saprang Kalayanamitra, who helped 
instigate the coup from his post in Phitsanulok, predicted 
during a visit to Chiang Mai earlier this year that he would be 
made Army Commander, sources say this is now unlikely.  Promoted 
to Assistant Army Commander after the coup and subsequently 
appointed chairman of the board of two major corporations - 
Telephones of Thailand (TOT) and Airports of Thailand (AOT) -- 
Saprang has since tarnished his reputation with an expensive 
junket to Europe and a series of hawkish statements.  The 
once-popular general now has trouble on both sides:  anti-coup 
groups charge Saprang with abuse of power while his military 
colleagues worry that the outspoken general could exacerbate 
problems in the south and widen the internal rift within the 
armed forces. 
 
CAMP