VZCZCXRO9417
PP RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHCHI #0066/01 1000957
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 100957Z APR 07
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0442
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0486
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000066 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  4/10/2017 
TAGS: PREL PINS TH BM
SUBJECT: BORDER FIGHTING HEATS UP AFTER KNU SPLIT 
 
REF: A) RANGOON 199, B) CHIANG MAI 22, C) RANGOON 263, D) CHIANG MAI 35, E) CHIANG MAI 63 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000066  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Political Officer, CG Chiang Mai, 
Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Shaken by a recent split in its ranks, the 
Karen National Union (KNU) took more battering this week, as 
soldiers allied with former KNU 7th Brigade Commander Htain 
Maung joined State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and 
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) forces in an attack 
against KNU units near the Thai-Burma border, according to local 
media reports and NGOs operating in the area. The attack comes 
on the heels of a suspected KNU assault on family members of 
Brig Gen Htain Maung, who left the KNU in January. Although KNU 
officials sought to portray the January split as a minor shakeup 
that left the core KNU stronger, the latest developments spell 
trouble for the long-time resistance group. End Summary. 
 
WAR OF WORDS GETS VIOLENT 
 
¶2. (C/NF) Rival KNU groups have waged a war mainly fought with 
words since former 7th Brigade leader Htain Maung led his 
faction away from the KNU fold in January (ref A, B). For two 
months, both sides traded verbal barbs, exchanging dueling 
accusations of corruption and irrelevance. The exile community 
initially lashed out at Htain Maung's defection, in which a few 
hundred soldiers and families appeared to join in, but later 
dismissed the breakaway as insignificant. They noted several big 
names - including members of recently deceased KNU leader Gen. 
Bo Mya's family - had distanced themselves from Htain Maung 
after initially appearing to have condoned, or even joined in, 
the desertion. However, Htain Maung and his "KNU/KNLA Peace 
Council" made several moves in March that showed that while they 
might not have caught the imagination of the Karen people, they 
had made inroads with the SPDC and its DKBA allies, who saw 
opportunities for anti-KNU propaganda. 
 
¶3. (S/NF) The situation grew tenser on April 1, when troops 
believed to belong to the KNU's Karen National Liberation Army 
(KNLA) attacked Htain Maung's traveling party as they were 
traveling between Karen State and Thailand. Ler Moo, Htain 
Maung's son-in-law, and two teenage boys sustained serious 
injuries from gunshots. All three received treatment at a 
hospital in Mae Sot. Ler Moo, who is also one of Htain Maung's 
top lieutenants, later moved to Chiang Mai for additional 
treatment. Many sources believe new 7th Brigade leader Brig Gen 
Johnny carried out the April 1 attack under orders from KNU 
leaders (KNU spokesmen told local media that they did not play a 
role in the attack.) A source close to Htain Maung's family said 
that Royal Thai Army officials have warned them that the KNU may 
attempt more attacks. 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Prior to the April 1 attack, the breakaway faction 
appeared to be building closer ties to the DKBA and SPDC 
leaders. Those ties came into light as Htain Maung's forces 
apparently joined SPDC and DKBA forces in a series of skirmishes 
against KNU positions and the headquarters of the Karen Youth 
Organization north of Mae Sot in Karen State this past weekend. 
A report from the Free Burma Rangers, an NGO assisting Karen 
resistance organizations and refugees, said those attacks pushed 
another 200 Karen villagers to flee to Thailand, while the 
SPDC's latest offensive has displaced some 1,000 villagers in 
Karen State this month. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Before the attack, Peace Council members had begun to 
aggressively advertise alleged progress they had made in 
brokering an end to the 60-year-old conflict between the Karen 
and Burma's central government. Following his defection from the 
KNU, Htain Maung led about 300 soldiers and their families to 
Hto Kaw Koe village in Karen State, where he has since held 
meetings with the SPDC, DKBA, and a visiting delegation of 
European academics (ref C). Sources familiar with the situation 
say SPDC officials, such as Maj. Gen. Ye Myint, met with Htain 
Maung at the funeral of long-time KNU leader Gen. Bo Mya last 
December in an attempt to divide the KNU ranks (ref D). Since 
then, the SPDC has used the relationship with Htain Maung's 
group to annoy KNU leaders and sow dissention in their ranks. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Pastor Timothy, a self-described peacemaker who 
reportedly has held a grudge against KNU leaders since he lost 
his seat on the KNU's Central Executive Committee, encouraged 
Htain Maung's break with mainline KNU leaders. Over the past few 
years, Pastor Timothy pursued an independent peacemaking agenda, 
holding meetings with the SPDC and DKBA despite the KNU's 
condemnation of his actions. As one of the key behind-the-scenes 
actors in this year's Peace Council announcement, Pastor Timothy 
was able to initially secure support from Bo Mya's family, 
inking some of their names to a declaration announcing the 
formation of the council. As with earlier attempts at drawing 
Karen leaders into negotiations with the SPDC, however, he 
seemed to overestimate his standing among his fellow Karen. 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000066  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Within days of the announcement, Bo Mya's son and widow quickly 
withdrew their names after an outcry from the exile community. 
 
WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE PEOPLE~. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) By March, KNU-Peace Council frictions compounded other 
tensions in the border region, involving both the Thai and 
Burmese governments and the DKBA (ref E). While KNU and DKBA 
forces skirmished along the border, Pastor Timothy told PolOff 
that KNU forces blocked several dozen Karen families looking to 
join Htain Maung, and were threatening retaliation against any 
perceived traitors. He proudly showed video footage of Htain 
Maung meeting with DKBA leaders and the European academics. 
Ironically, KNU officials and supporters also presented or 
referenced this same video footage while making their case to 
PolOff that Peace Council members had sold out to the SPDC and 
betrayed the Karen peoples' interests. KNU leaders continue to 
shrug off the defection as minor, contending that the result is 
a stronger, more unified core of supporters. "We're more 
comfortable without him here causing dissent," said one KNU 
leader. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) KNU leaders point to several signs that the faction 
has not attracted true support from the Karen people. Media 
reports in March said that many of the initial defectors later 
returned to KNU territory claiming that they had been paid by 
Peace Council leaders to join them. Once the money ran out, they 
left the camp. One NGO leader active on the border said Htain 
Maung had ordered 500 uniforms in anticipation of attracting 
support from other KNLA units, but most are still on the rack. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) KNU leaders also said their RTG and RTA contacts 
opposed the Peace Council's formation and agenda to build 
support among other factions of Karen, as any move that weakened 
the KNU would strengthen the DKBA and increase the 
unpredictability of border politics. The Thais prefer 
consistency, one leader told PolOff, and value the KNU's 
historic role as a buffer against the SPDC. 
 
~ BUT SIGNS OF INTEREST FROM THE SPDC 
 
¶10. (C/NF) Despite an apparent lack of support among the Karen 
people, there are several signs of interest from the SPDC in 
strengthening Htain Maung's position. In late March, KNU sources 
showed ConGen staff examples of ID cards issued by the SPDC to 
Peace Council members for travel within Karen State. The ID 
cards had caused particular concerns, this source said, as 
recipients included ethnic Karen Thai nationals who had 
supposedly joined the Peace Council only for financial gain. 
That these Thai nationals were now carrying de facto Burmese 
identification cards and posing as Peace Council members 
troubled local Thai officials, the source said. 
 
¶11. (C/NF) Sources on both sides of the conflict said the SPDC 
had promised significant benefits to Peace Council members. 
While Htain Maung's group characterized these payments as 
support for infrastructure at Hto Kaw Koe, detractors said they 
were mostly personal payments to Peace Council leaders in cash 
or other assets. According to The Irrawaddy, a Chiang Mai-based 
media organization that covers Burma, the SPDC is reaching out 
to other KNU/KNLA leaders with financial incentives to break off 
from the resistance. 
 
¶12. (S/NF) Peace Council leaders have sought to portray 
themselves as the KNU's representatives in negotiations with the 
SPDC. Pastor Timothy says the splinter group intends to pursue 
unification with the DKBA, which controls much of the territory 
surrounding Hto Kaw Koe, and active participation in the ongoing 
process to draft a new Burmese constitution. In a letter to KNU 
officials, Htain Maung said that SPDC Maj Gen Ye Myint had 
appointed him the "only point of contact" for KNU leaders 
looking to discuss peace negotiations with the DKBA or SPDC. "If 
the KNU leadership desires to negotiate with the Burma 
government, they must go through me alone," his letter reads. 
 
COMMENT: FURTHER CHALLENGES TO KAREN UNITY 
 
¶13. (C/NF) Htain Maung and his Peace Council have little support 
among rank-and-file Karen. However, his departure marks the 
biggest defection in several years and KNU leaders show signs of 
increasing fatigue in the face of another military offensive, 
yet again with former allies joining their adversaries in the 
attacks. Despite KNU leaders' optimistic spin that they are 
better off without Htain Maung, it is unlikely that this 
"stronger KNU core" will be able to reverse the gradual loss of 
territory and morale suffered over the past several years. End 
Comment. 
CAMP