VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0639/01 1160909
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 260909Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1143

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000639 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2022 
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV KUM HU
SUBJECT: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: FIDESZ APPROACHES ITS PARTY 
CONGRESS 
 
REF: A. A: BUDAPEST DAILY REPORT 04-13-2007 
 
     ¶B. B: BUDAPEST DAILY REPORT 03-09-2007 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (C) FIDESZ and party president Viktor Orban appear stable 
in advance of the party Congress on May 5.  All indications 
are that Orban will remain unchallenged for now, and that the 
party will make a "political declaration" but will not 
announce any long-term policy platform at the meeting.  After 
suffering losses in the past two national elections, FIDESZ 
members admit the party is "hungry for political success," 
but "focused on maintaining its political base for now." 
Observers predict that the party will slowly ratchet up its 
efforts to attract voters closer to the 2009 EU elections. 
FIDESZ insiders do not believe that PM Gyurcsany's popularity 
will recover, and they expect to gain more support in 2008, a 
belief that may dictate FIDESZ'S tactics in Parliament.  The 
party currently participates in "private, five party 
negotiations" on the expert level within Parliament, but 
refuses to engage with the government publicly.  Hungary's 
relations with Russia in general and on energy security in 
particular continue to be hot button issues for FIDESZ, and 
party members believe that Russia and Germany have reached 
"quiet agreements" to trade Deutsche Telecom subsidiaries in 
Hungary and Montenegro, in lieu of the German parent company. 
 
---------------------------------- 
LITTLE DRAMA AT THE PARTY CONGRESS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The FIDESZ party Congress, set for May 5, will 
provide little drama for the top spot as undisputed party 
leader Viktor Orban is uncontested in the race.  However, in 
a break from the tradition of predetermined party voting, 
five candidates will compete for four vice president 
positions.  After years of careful staging, one observer 
noted, "what others might call democracy in FIDESZ looks like 
disarray."  Party insiders take this as a sign that Mayor, 
Member of Parliament and possible Orban rival, Lajos Kosa, 
can not be denied a spot in the party leadership.  According 
to Member of Parliament and FIDESZ Parliamentary Caucus 
Director Robert Repassy, by publicly encouraging all five 
candidates to run, "Orban is acknowledging Kosa's popularity" 
while not specifically endorsing him.  Repassy reasons that 
if Orban thought he could "keep Kosa out" he would have 
called for party support of the other four incumbent 
candidates, thus cutting Kosa out of the race. 
 
¶3.  (C) Orban is divided on whether to follow a new strategy 
of dialogue and negotiation or to continue the present course 
of opposing all government positions, according to the MP. 
Currently, "behind the scenes," Repassy confirmed that policy 
experts and MPs engage in discussion and deliberations "among 
all five parties," but he said, "FIDESZ will not engage the 
Gyurcsany government publicly."  Repassy also said that Orban 
"has been weighing his options" in the weeks leading up to 
the party Congress, while he travels the countryside building 
support for the Congress among party members.  He'll have 
work to do, critics within the party believe, as many 
complain of the party's habit of leaning on local officials 
for financial support and see the trip as "proof only that 
Orban needs money."  According to Levente Benko, FIDESZ 
Foreign Affairs Committee energy policy analyst, Orban is 
also adjusting his tactics by curtailing is firebrand 
rhetoric in the Hungarian media in favor of "letting experts 
discuss policy issues (like energy security) in public" (REF 
A).  This also allows him to seek a role on the broader 
European stage. 
 
----------------------------------- 
FOLLOW THE MONEY TO ORBAN'S SUPPORT 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) In a rare and remarkably candid discussion of party 
financing, Mr. Benko said that FIDESZ "does not have the 
large numbers of contributors" that the MSZP courts for 
support.  Rather, FIDESZ contributors number a very small 
group of financiers from the Hungarian banking and media 
sectors.  All of the contributors "support only Orban" for 
the time being, which solidifies his position.  Benko 
believes that the rise of a new centrist faction is possible 
in Hungarian politics before the 2010 national elections, but 
is quick to point out that it must have funding and be able 
to attract "disaffected voters from several parties."  When 
asked if the small group of FIDESZ financiers would be a 
possible source of funding, Benko said "only if they lose 
confidence in Orban."  He added that, though the fall 
referendum vote is important, the 2009 European Parliament 
 
elections will be the litmus test for Orban. 
 
---------------- 
FIDESZ ON RUSSIA 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Though its criticism is often met with charges of 
"radical nationalism" by the government coalition (especially 
regarding foreign investment), one of the recent "successes" 
FIDESZ enjoys is the ability to raise public awareness 
regarding GOH energy and trade policies toward Russia. 
According to Mr. Benko, Foreign Affairs Committee chairman 
Zsolt Nemeth and other senior party experts are leading 
FIDESZ's efforts to call attention to the Nabucco pipeline as 
an alternative to the Russian controlled Blue Stream pipeline 
consortium.  According to Benko, not only is energy 
diversification a critical domestic security issue, but for 
FIDESZ "it is an opportunity to mend fences" with the U.S. 
and the UK, because they feel PM Gyurcsany is "out of step" 
with most of Hungary's allies on the issue.  FIDESZ, 
according to Benko, breathed new life into Nabucco in 
Hungary, "but the Azeris must put gas in the pipe and the 
U.S./UK must continue to lobby aggressively, if Gyurcsany is 
to turn away from Putin." 
 
¶6.  (C) Of graver concern to Benko are rumors that PM Merkel 
recently secured agreements with President Putin to divert 
Russian investment away from Deutsche Telecom, and focus 
instead on the conglomerate's subsidiary companies in Hungary 
and Montenegro.  Benko told poloff that "this is not only a 
matter of national pride for Hungary" but also a national 
security issue given that Magyar Telecom provides various 
communications capabilities for the Hungarian military. 
Asked Benko, "do you want Russia providing military 
communications for a NATO partner?" 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
WHO IS NEXT?: HANDICAPPING THE FIELD OF CONTENDERS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7. (SBU) For more than a year political analysts and 
academics have theorized about - and many looked forward to - 
Orban's downfall.  Though rumors of Orban's political demise 
are premature given his continued control of the party, the 
debate warrants analysis of likely contenders in the presumed 
race for succession.  Many political theorists and 
politicians see Lajos Kosa, Antal Rogan, Zoltan Pokorni and 
Tibor Navracsics as the principal contestants. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Lajos Kosa, mayor of Debrecen, Hungary's second 
largest city, is generally among the first names mentioned as 
an Orban successor.  His popularity among voters across party 
lines and approval ratings that hover at 80 percent make him 
an undeniable prospect.  though a founding member of FIDESZ, 
he is often viewed by his peers in Parliament as a "simple 
country politician" that is "long on rhetoric and short on 
political skills."  FIDESZ MPs like Robert Repassy point to 
Kosa's comments regarding MDF leader Ibolya David in a recent 
Playboy interview that have people thinking that he is "too 
unpolished" to lead the conservative party. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Antal Rogan, mayor of the Fifth District in 
Budapest, is touted by political analysts as a "young 
up-and-comer" and leader of the next generation in FIDESZ. 
He is not without detractors, however, and one MFA source 
wondered how "Rogan can be so popular if everyone hates him." 
 Rogan served as FIDESZ campaign chief during the 2006 
National Elections, and has received a heavy dose of 
criticism from party elders for numerous high profile 
campaign mistakes in the weeks before the election.  As 
mayor, he actively courts young voters and promotes the Fifth 
District as a haven for young professionals.  Most recently, 
in a program clearly targeting women under 25, Rogan 
announced that his district will provide free HPV cervical 
cancer vaccinations.  This is a new tactic in Hungarian 
politics - and a clever one given the public perception that 
the Gyurcsany government is reducing access to medical care - 
but one which may nonetheless put Rogan at odds with Orban 
and the old guard in FIDESZ. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Zoltan Pokorni, mayor of FIDESZ stronghold 
District 12 in Budapest also appears to have strained 
relations with FIDESZ leadership.  Much like Rogan, Pokorni 
is using his office "to work his way out of Orban's doghouse" 
and possibly compete for the Budapest's next mayoral race. 
Pokorni is characterized as "the anti-Orban" for his 
conciliatory leadership style and his willingness to engage 
with coalition politicians on policy debates.  Pokorni and 
Rogan received a clear message from Orban after the local 
elections in fall 2006 that "Istvan Tarlos (former District 3 
mayor) is FIDESZ's candidate for Budapest mayor in 2006 and 
 
will be again in 2010."  they may accordingly see little 
reason to remain in lock-step with Orban, and great advantage 
in using their present positions as springboards to national 
prominence. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Tibor Navracsics, FIDESZ faction leader, clearly 
has Orban's support in Parliament, though many in the party 
discount his background in party staff and think-tank 
positions.  They may underestimate him at their own peril. 
The first-time Member of Parliament is increasingly outspoken 
(and increasingly quotable) as he continues to stage 
relentless attacks on Gyurcsany's "government by perpetual 
crisis."  However, many commentators, including SZDSZ MP 
Gabor Fodor, think Navracsics is "more moderate than the 
party line."  If so, Navracsics may be well-suited to tack 
back toward the center in the future. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
ONE MORE LAST CHANCE: THE 2007 REFERENDUM 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The resilience of Orban and FIDESZ, in the face of 
multiple defeats over the two previous national election 
cycles, is remarkable.  Predictions of the FIDESZ party 
leader's downfall have been a staple in Hungarian politics 
for years.  The "next last chance" for Orban to oust 
Gyurcsany, according to many commentators, is the National 
Referendum vote slated for fall 2007.  The Constitutional 
Court has approved three issues (REF B) for consideration. 
None of the questions are likely to inspire the 50 percent 
turnout (roughly 4 million voters) required by law.  A strong 
showing in the referendum will translate to support for 
Orban, and give him momentum to solidify himself as the 
undisputed leader of FIDESZ into the 2009 EU and 2010 
national elections.  Poor turnout in the referendum, however, 
will be regarded as (another) failure.  It will leave Orban 
looking for another tactic, and perhaps others in the party 
more openly looking for another standard-bearer. 
FOLEY