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C O N F I D E N T I A L BELMOPAN 000287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ECON BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: OPPOSITION LEADER DISCUSSES THE WAY AHEAD 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Dieter for reason 1.5(d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Opposition leader Dean Barrow told us that 
he expects victory in the upcoming election but is taking 
nothing for granted.  Government corruption and a "reform 
agenda" will be his main issues in the campaign.  He foresees 
good relations with the U.S., believes momentum is building 
for progress on the Belize-Guatemala border issue and does 
not plan any changes in relations with Taiwan.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Appearing relaxed and candid, opposition United 
Democratic Party (UDP) leader Dean Barrow met with Ambassador 
and DCM over lunch April 26 for a wide-ranging discussion of 
domestic politics, the economy,  foreign relations, and 
changes likely to occur in Belize if the UDP wins the next 
election. 
 
DOMESTIC POLITICS:  ELECTION ISSUES 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶3.  (C)  Barrow said that, while many early signs had been 
pointing toward a November election, he now saw indications 
that the Prime Minister Said Musa's People's United Party 
(PUP) government would try to stay in office until its term 
expired in early 2008.  Barrow's analysis of the recent 
village council elections was that the PUP, although subject 
to a lot of bad press recently and trailing badly in every 
poll that has been released, was not going to go down without 
a fight.  He said that he expected no seat to be won easily 
and estimated that the UDP could get a majority of 18 to 20 
of the 31 seats in the National Assembly. 
 
¶4.  (C)  As far as campaign issues, Barrow saw corruption 
scandals and the "reform agenda" as the UDP's main selling 
points.  Asked how he would overcome voter cynicism that a 
UDP victory would simply change one set of crooks for another 
he acknowledged the point but said he would run on his 
personal record and also on a platform that would include new 
good governance legislation as well as the creation of a 
"Transparency Commission" made up of civil society to improve 
accountability.  He acknowledged past UDP failures in this 
area, ascribing most of the problems to former leader Manuel 
Esquivel's management style:  Esquivel himself was 
"completely clean" but preferred not to micro-manage his 
ministers and as a result suffered through several 
high-profile corruption scandals in his Cabinet.  Barrow made 
it clear that he intended to be a much more hands-on manager 
as PM.  He said that the UDP's platform was still being 
crafted but that he hoped fiscal constraints would allow him 
to propose some sort of school 
feeding program and assistance for entrepreneurs aimed at 
single mothers. 
 
¶5.  (C)  When complimented on his Spanish in a recent 
campaign ad, Barrow laughed and said that the changing 
demographics of Belize required it.  The electorate now had a 
majority of Spanish speakers, and it was not credible for a 
leader to claim to represent the country without being at 
least conversant in the language that wasn't his mother 
tongue.  He commented that race also was a factor, saying 
that as a black man he had to make the effort to speak 
Spanish to appeal to Hispanic voters. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Asked about UDP views on taxation of the oil sector, 
Barrow said that he had taken the Government at its word when 
they said that they had consulted experts and had set an 
appropriate level of taxation for oil producers.  He had been 
surprised when the Government Leader in the Senate had 
subsequently insisted on raising tax rates and making them 
retroactive.  At that point, he said, the UDP assumed bad 
faith of some sort and began calling for higher rates as 
well.  He said he had met with the head of Belize Natural 
Energy -- currently the sole energy producer in the country 
-- and understood their requirement for clear rules on 
taxation.  (NOTE:  The vast majority of investment in energy 
exploration in Belize is from the U.S.  We have made the 
point to the Government that unpredictable, retroactive tax 
regimes are a negative incentive for other firms looking for 
energy here.  END NOTE.) 
 
CORRUPTION SCANDALS 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Commenting on the current round of scandals 
engulfing the PUP, Barrow said that the press had done a good 
job of exposing issues and raising public awareness.  As a 
result of the scrutiny the government, after weeks of 
claiming that the agreement was confidential, had finally 
made available for his inspection the loan guarantee it had 
provided for the debt of bankrupt private company Universal 
Health Services (UHS).  Barrow noted that the law required 
the House to vote to approve public debt, so that the UHS 
agreement would have to come up for approval.  At least one 
Cabinet Minister was already on record as opposing the 
guarantee, so there was a possibility that a vote on the UHS 
deal could split the PUP caucus.  Barrow thought, however, 
that in the end party discipline would prevail and the 
government would not fall over the issue.  (NOTE: A total of 
five ministers have now publicly stated their opposition to 
the guarantee.) 
 
¶8.  (C)  Barrow said he found it puzzling that PM Musa -- 
whom he described as a likeable man with a good sense of 
humor -- found himself associated with so much scandal.  It 
was hard to see, he commented, how Musa had come to the point 
where his name was usually associated with terms like "liar" 
and "dissembling." 
 
FOREIGN POLICY:  STAY THE COURSE 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  Barrow, who spent several weeks in Guatemala last 
fall taking an intensive Spanish course, said that he saw an 
ICJ referral for the border dispute as the only way forward. 
Further negotiations would be "sterile," since both 
countries' positions were well-developed and in the end 
seemed irreconcilable.  As a lawyer, he said, he recognized 
that there was always a risk in litigation but that Belize's 
case was strong.  He said that elections in both Belize and 
Guatemala complicated the equation and agreed that the need 
for referenda in both countries added an additional electoral 
wild card to the mix.  He remained optimistic, however, and 
appreciated the Ambassador's information that there seemed to 
be movement on the resettlement of the village of Santa Rosa 
(SEPTEL).  He said that Belize's negotiator for Guatemala, 
Assad Shoman, was a "smart fellow."  Barrow said that he 
personally would have no problem keeping Shoman in the 
position but believed that if he did so he would cause a 
revolt among his party's "radicals" who saw Shoman as an 
unreconstructed socialist and too much of a crony of PM Musa. 
In any event,he said, if the case went to the ICJ the need for a 
negotiator disappeared.  Surprisingly, he was not aware of 
plans to improve the road leading to the Guatemalan border in 
the south. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Asked where he saw U.S. relations going if he were 
to become Prime Minister, Barrow said the he could see no 
major irritants looming.  He described his party's politics 
as "conservative."  He appreciated the assistance that the 
USG provided to Belize, noting that despite the closing of 
USAID's office here we seemed to be doing as much as we could 
within the limits of our resources, and said that at this 
point he had no specific suggestions of what else the USG 
could do to help the country.  Relations with Mexico, he 
said, were good and would remain so, despite occasional 
frustrations. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Barrow brought up the subject of Taiwan, saying 
that the UDP had previously established relations with the 
PRC.  The PUP had later switched to Taiwan, and there was 
concern when the UDP came back to office that they would 
switch back again.  Barrow said, however, that he was 
convinced that the relationship with Taiwan offered the most 
for Belize.  He had traveled to the PRC with former PM 
Esquivel and although they were treated well the Chinese 
promises of economic and business development had never 
materialized.  He said that although it might sound crass, 
the Taiwanese were willing to do more for Belize and so the 
UDP had no thought of establishing relations with the PRC. 
 
BIOGRAPHIC NOTES 
---------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (C)  Barrow mentioned several times in our conversation 
that he was 56 and said that this would likely be his last 
election.  (COMMENT:  He has reportedly said this before 
other elections, too.  END COMMENT.)  He said that he would 
be taking a leave of absence from his law firm when the court 
took its summer recess so that he could devote his full 
attention to politics and the upcoming campaign.  He 
mentioned a son who is a rap musician serving time in prison 
in the U.S. for a 1999 shooting in New York involving Sean 
Combs and Jennifer Lopez. 
DIETER