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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 002188 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2032 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KCUL CH
SUBJECT: 17TH PARTY CONGRESS TO BOOST HU JINTAO'S 
IDEOLOGICAL AUTHORITY 
 
REF: A. BEIJING 00925 
     ¶B. FBIS 20070202063004 
     ¶C. 06 BEIJING 18457 
 
Classified By: Political Section Internal Unit Chief 
Susan A. Thornton.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Embassy contacts uniformly predict that the 
17th Party Congress scheduled for this fall will boost 
Party chief Hu Jintao's ideological authority by 
listing his doctrinal slogans together with those of 
his predecessors.  The relative weight that will be 
given to Hu's various ideological slogans or the 
rhetorical form these slogans will assume at the 
Congress are unclear but do not appear to be 
politically controversial.  Former Party head Jiang 
Zemin may be trying to interfere with the transfer of 
ideological authority to Hu, according to contacts. 
Comment:  It is nevertheless unlikely that Jiang will 
succeed in blocking the elevation of Hu's status at 
the 17th Congress.  Hu has not only the weight of 
Party precedent on his side, but his slogans are 
already well-established in the Party litany. 
End Summary and Comment. 
 
Passing the Ideological Baton--the Next Step 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In addition to selecting a new leadership 
lineup, the 17th Party Congress will approve a 
Political Report that is expected to include several 
of Hu Jintao's ideological concepts as the Party's 
guiding doctrine for the next five years.  Veteran 
journalist Fang Jinyu (protect), Beijing bureau chief 
of the Guangdong Party Committee's Southern Daily, 
predicted that Hu will be recognized, at least 
implicitly, as the ideological heir apparent to former 
leader Jiang Zemin at the 17th Congress.  He said the 
Congress Political Report, which is already 
circulating in draft form, will accept Hu's doctrines 
as a "guiding ideology" of the Party by including them 
in the litany of slogans that will be endorsed by the 
Congress.  However, he said, the Congress will not 
write Hu's ideas into the Party Constitution, a step 
that would be left to a future Congress. 
 
¶3.  (C) Chang Guangming, Director of the Political 
Editing Department of Seeking Truth, the Central 
Committee's official journal, and Cheng Enfu, Director 
of the Chinese Academy of Social Science's new Marxist 
Research Academy, separately noted that Party 
tradition allows each successive Party chief to coin 
his own slogans and agreed that Hu's catchwords would 
be adopted at the Congress as the latest development 
in the "Sinification of Marxism."  Cheng doubted that 
the slogans would bear Hu's name, however, explaining 
that the Party's practice is to wait until a leader 
has left office before attaching his name to an 
ideology.  (Note:  The current Party canon recognizes 
"Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping 
Theory, and "the Important Thinking of the Three 
Represents" as the Party's official ideology.  End 
note.) 
 
¶4.  (C) In Fang's view, seconded by academic contacts 
Dong Lisheng of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 
(protect), Qin Zhilai of the Central Party School 
(protect), and Cao Huayin of the China Reform Forum 
(protect), in separate conversations, consideration 
will be given to writing Hu's ideology into the Party 
Constitution at the 18th Congress in 2012 when Hu is 
expected to step down.  (Note:  Deng Xiaoping's 
ideology was endorsed in the Political Report of the 
Party's 14th Congress in 1992, but was not written 
into the Party Constitution until the 15th Congress in 
1997 after he died.  Jiang's "Three Represents" 
doctrine was written into the Party Constitution at 
the 16th Party Congress in 2002, but without his name 
attached.  Hu Jintao was promoted to Party chief at 
that Congress but Jiang retained the chairmanship of 
the Central Military Commission. End note.) 
 
Let A Hundred Slogans Bloom 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Party leaders have not reached a consensus on 
the final form that Hu's slogans will take, Embassy 
contacts told us, but they did not see this as a sign 
 
BEIJING 00002188  002 OF 003 
 
 
of political controversy.  The central challenge for 
Party theorists, they say, is to determine which of 
the welter of slogans now associated with Hu's 
leadership should constitute the decisive element in 
his ideological profile.  The current frontrunners are 
the "Scientific Development Concept" and the 
"Socialist Harmonious Society."  The Scientific 
Development Concept, promoted early in Hu's tenure as 
Party chief, calls for balancing economic growth and 
efficiency with environmental protection and social 
justice.  The Socialist Harmonious Society, the focus 
of an official resolution adopted by the Central 
Committee at its 6th plenum last September, signals an 
effort to come to grips with the deepening social 
conflicts spawned by China's rapid economic growth. 
Hu has also coined a number of other slogans that are 
also included in his contribution to the Party's 
ideological canon. 
 
¶6.  (C) Embassy contacts appear to be somewhat baffled 
by this rhetorical confusion.  Fang said Party leaders 
have not promulgated an overarching framework to 
express Hu's ideological outlook despite formal 
endorsement of the Socialist Harmonious Society at the 
6th plenum.  In his view, the Scientific Development 
Concept, as a developmental strategy, is the means to 
the goal of a Socialist Harmonious Society.  Cheng, of 
the Marxist Academy, took the opposite view, arguing 
that the Scientific Development Concept is the 
"controlling" element because economic development 
constitutes the overall "frame" of the Party's 
ideology and policy agenda.  Although some theorists 
assume the Socialist Harmonious Society idea will take 
precedence because of its elevated status at the 6th 
plenum, Cheng said, it should be viewed as one aspect 
of a broader development model.  Chang, the Qiushi 
editor, acknowledged that there is currently much 
discussion over the issue.  He said both concepts are 
important and will likely appear as distinct elements 
in the Political Report of the upcoming congress.  He 
said the two constructs "mutually influence and 
reinforce each other," because the Socialist 
Harmonious Society, in showing the need to solve 
social conflict, "carries the development concept 
within it."  On the one hand, the Scientific 
Development Concept is a "guiding ideology for policy" 
which points the way to a harmonious society. 
 
¶7.  (C) Cheng cautioned against making too much out of 
the current lack of ideological clarity, stating that 
at the end of the day, leaders' slogans are part of 
the ongoing "Sinification" of Marxism and the search 
for an ideology that allows China to "do things in its 
own way" and "not exceed its limits."  In his viw, it 
is not a good idea to amend the Party Constitution too 
often.  Fang, on the other hand, lamented that Hu has 
coined too many slogans, making it more difficult to 
identify the overall conept he wants associated with 
his leadership.  "If I were his advisor," Fang said, 
"I would tell him to slack off a bit and stop spinning 
out so many slogans." 
 
Jiang The Energizer Keeps Going and Going 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C) A recent resurgence of high-level attention to 
Jiang's official writings, according to a veteran 
journalist, may be a sign that the former Party chief 
is attempting to interfere with the transfer of formal 
ideological authority to Hu.  Official media announced 
in early February that the Central Committee was 
convening a six-day study session for provincial Party 
heads and ministerial-level officials at the Central 
Party School to study Jiang's Selected Works. (Ref B) 
The meeting merited a full Politburo turnout, except 
for Hu Jintao, who was traveling in Africa, with Party 
School President and Politburo Standing Committee 
member Zeng Qinghong presiding.  According to Dean 
Wang Jisi of Beijing University's School of 
International Studies (Ref A), a participant in the 
study session reported that the original topic of 
discussion was something akin to the Scientific 
Development Concept but was changed to Jiang's works 
for unknown reasons. 
 
¶9.  (C) The Southern Daily's Fang said he was 
"stunned" by the Party mouthpiece People's Daily's 
front page treatment of the event, which appeared to 
pit Jiang against Hu.  The paper splashed Hu's trip to 
Africa across the top of the page but trumpeted the 
authoritative nature of Jiang's works across the 
 
BEIJING 00002188  003 OF 003 
 
 
bottom.  At a minimum, in Fang's view, the seminar and 
press coverage signaled Jiang's continuing political 
influence and bid to protect his ideological 
authority.  "This was a Jiang initiative to remind the 
Politburo Standing Committee that I am still alive," 
said Fang.  He was quick to add that Hu most certainly 
had signed off on it before departing for Africa, but 
that Hu's absence was telling nonetheless. 
 
¶10.  (C) Prominent investigative journalist, Wang 
Keqin (protect), of the reform-minded State Council 
paper Economic Times, did not see Jiang as being able 
to make his ideological authority stick in the long 
run.  He thought Hu continued to give a nod to Jiang's 
formal status while preparing the groundwork to 
replace Jiang's doctrines with his own.  "Think of it 
this way," Wang said, "if you are fattening up a hog 
or goose in preparation for a grand feast, you will 
treat them well before the slaughter."  Others, such 
as Beijing University Professor He Weixin, were 
doubtful that Jiang's efforts would have a measurable 
political effect, judging that Hu can give Jiang his 
due without damaging his own political position. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C)  Despite Jiang's apparent efforts to hang on 
to his current status as the Party's supreme 
ideological authority, it is doubtful that he will 
succeed in blocking the elevation of Hu's status at 
the Congress.  Hu has not only the weight of Party 
precedent on his side, but his slogans are already 
well-established in the Party litany. 
RANDT