VZCZCXRO2803
OO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0352 1021347
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 121347Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4620
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0867
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: RESULTS NEARLY COMPLETE, REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 325 B) ANTANANARIVO 301 C) 
 
     ANTANANARIVO 252 D) ANTANANARIVO 232 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  Waiting on results from only 27 of the 
country's 17,000-plus polling stations, Madagascar's 
constitutional referendum passed with a 75.37 percent 
approval rate and a 43.7 percent voter turnout.  The usual 
criticism from the opposition post-referendum will likely 
fall on deaf ears.  The Council of Ministers chaired by the 
President is now starting to shift its attention to upcoming 
elections for senators, mayors and "fokontany" (neighborhood) 
leaders.    END SUMMARY. 
 
RESULTS SHOW REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) On the evening of April 9, the Ministry of Interior 
published results collected from 99.85 percent of the 
country's 17,586 polling stations.  Of 3,157,946 votes cast 
representing 43.7 percent of eligible voters, 75.37 percent 
approved the proposed constitutional changes.  It came as no 
surprise the referendum was rejected in the cities of Tulear 
(support base of opponent Jean Lahiniriko), Tamatave 
(traditional stronghold of former President Ratsiraka), 
Fianarantsoa, Diego Suarez, and Majunga.  Media reports noted 
subtle shifts from the December 3 presidential election 
results.  While the President lost 400,000 votes in his 
traditional support base of Antananarivo province, he gained 
200,000 votes in Tulear province.  Some speculate these 
changes reflect the beginning of a shift in political bases, 
but they are more likely a mixed result of low voter turnout 
despite pressure on Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials 
to encourage voters to approve the referendum. 
 
¶3. (U) Although the results fall short of the 80 percent 
approval rate President Ravalomanana was aiming for, 
heexpressed satisfaction over the initial referendum results 
at a session of the Council of Ministers April 6.  The 
President believes voters in the five provincial capitals who 
rejected the referendum are scared of losing their jobs, 
while those in rural areas who approved the referendum 
expressed the desire to be closer to the administration. 
Turning its attention toward the future, the meeting focused 
on the upcoming elections for senators, mayors and fokontany 
leaders (dates yet to be determined). 
 
OPPOSITION REACTION 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (U) As expected, the committee of voters against the 
referendum is publicly contesting the Ministry of Interior's 
results, questioning how isolated communes inaccessible by 
road managed to turn in their votes in less than three days. 
The head of the opposition Committee for National 
Reconciliation called it a "pre-fabricated victory" and 
expects Ravalomanana and his team will continue their drive 
toward "greater personal power and weaker democracy."  Former 
presidential candidate opponents Roland Ratsiraka, Herizo 
Razafimahaleo and Jean Lahiniriko announced they intend to 
consolidate their forces to seize the majority of seats in 
the upcoming Senate and communal elections. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶5. (C) Ambassador McGee recently learned German, French and 
EU officials jointly demarched President Ravalomanana in a 
closed-door meeting in the days before the referendum to 
express concern over the process of the vote, namely the 
hasty timing.  With the GOM already looking to the future, 
Post expects opposition criticism post-referendum will 
equally fall on deaf ears.  Regardless of low voter turnout 
(and some have suggested the turnout may have been even lower 
that that officially reported), the President seems confident 
of his mandate from the people and ready to forge ahead with 
his government's plans for Madagascar's development.  If 
opposition parties are able to put aside their rivalries and 
cooperate to win back seats in upcoming elections they might 
have some success, but it would be a first for Madagascar's 
typically unsophisticated political parties.  END COMMENT. 
 
McGEE