VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0954/01 1202229
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 302229Z APR 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5062
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6695
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7943

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000954 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS, 
IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage from April 28-30 on the Taiwan authority's decision to 
reject China's proposed route for the 2008 Olympic torch relay; on 
the 3rd KMT-Communist Party of China forum held in Beijing on 
Sunday; and on the year-end legislative elections and the 2008 
presidential election.  The pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged 
a banner headline April 30 that read "Mainland [China] Upgrades 
Sovereignty Level; Trouble Arises Regarding Taiwan's [Policy] to 
Allow Chinese Tourists to Visit." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the United States' attitude 
toward Taiwan's development of offensive weapons.  The article said 
Washington is more concerned about the long-range ballistic missiles 
Taiwan is currently developing than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise 
missiles that Taiwan has developed.  An analysis in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" said the United States' move to 
wait until the last moment to prevent Taiwan from deploying the 
Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles is a typical double-faced strategy 
based on its own interests.  With regard to Iraq, an editorial in 
the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification "China Post" 
commented on the U.S. Congress's decision last week to ask the Bush 
administration to begin pulling out U.S. troops from Iraq.  The 
article said "The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near, 
for Bush's war as well as for Bush himself."  In terms of Olympic 
torch relay issue, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" said as a result of China's plan to belittle Taiwan, the 
island needs to be prepared not to participate in the 2008 Beijing 
Olympic Games.  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" also said it is difficult to see how 
a compromise can be reached over the Olympic torch relay issue 
without either side backing down.  A "China Times" editorial, 
however, urged Taiwan not to be absent from the Olympic Games.  A 
separate editorial in the English-language "China Post" also chimed 
in by saying Taiwan's threat not to have its athletes participate in 
the Olympic Games is a foolish and dangerous proposition.  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. Taiwan's Development of Offensive Weapons 
 
A) "Mystery behind [Taiwan's] Revelation of Its Offensive Weapons" 
 
Mei Fu-hsing, director of the Taiwan Strait Security Research and 
Analysis Center, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
[circulation: 520,000] (4/30): 
 
"Regarding Taiwan's development of so-called 'offensive weapons,' 
the United States' fundamental attitude is that 'it will not 
proactively interfere as long as the weapons are not nuclear or 
biochemical.'  This is because the U.S. military is also aware that 
Taiwan must be equipped with certain capabilities to attack specific 
ground targets of the People's Liberation Army, so that it can lift 
a siege [laid by the PLA] in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. 
...  But the United States' 'turning a blind eye' is built on the 
tacit agreement that [Taiwan] can 'only do it without saying it.' 
The Bush administration, which is already troubled by problems in 
the Mideast and North Korea and is thus in desperate need of China's 
cooperation, is getting increasingly annoyed by Taiwan politicians, 
whose occasional remarks about attacking mainland China with the 
island's self-produced missiles have triggered a reaction from 
Beijing and thus created unnecessary trouble for the United States' 
global strategic operations. 
 
"The first time that Washington picked on Taiwan regarding this 
issue was in August 2006, when the Bush administration decided to 
disapprove tentatively a proposal by Taiwan's military to purchase 
F-16 C/D fighter jets.  It was generally believed that Washington's 
decision not to sell the new fighter jets to Taiwan was a result of 
Taiwan's failure to pass the arms procurement budget as of then, 
which had been stalled for three years.  But in reality, the U.S. 
authorities' other major concern was that it was hoping to use the 
disapproval to put pressure on Taiwan over the island's development 
of counterattack weapons.  The United States' goals are:  First, it 
wanted Taiwan's leaders to exercise restraint in terms of their 
words and deeds, and second, it wanted to force Taiwan to abandon 
its development of some sensitive counterattack weapons. ... 
Sources said that the United States is more concerned about the 
long-range ballistic missiles that Taiwan is still striving to 
develop than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles that Taiwan has 
already successfully developed.  In this context, the ballistic 
missiles will most likely become the target that Washington wants to 
persuade Taiwan to abandon. ..." 
 
B) "In Calling for a Halt when [the Missiles] Are about to be 
Deployed, the United States Is Using a Double-Faced Strategy" 
 
Journalist Lu Teh-yun noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (4/30): 
 
 
IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE 
 
 
"The U.S. National Security Council and the State Department plan to 
impose pressure to halt Taiwan's development and deployment of 
missiles that are capable of attacking mainland China.  The plan by 
Taiwan's Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology to develop 
Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles has been going on for over six years. 
How is it possible that the United States was not aware of it?  But 
the United States' decision to wait until the last moment to 
interrupt the plan was in reality a move made based on its own 
interests. 
 
"The United States believes that, based on previous lessons it has 
learned, the Taiwan authorities, when dealing with the issue of 
unification and independence and cross-Strait disputes, tend to use 
words and deeds to provoke Beijing; Taiwan's pushing toward the 
outer limit [that Washington] can tolerate has got on the United 
States' nerves.  Washington can never stop worrying in the face of 
the Taiwan authorities' calls for referenda, writing a new 
constitution, and [calling for] one country on each side of the 
Taiwan Strait 
 
"What Washington cares about is that Taiwan has constantly tried to 
drag the United States into the [cross-Strait] quagmire, and that it 
intends to raise cross-Strait conflicts to the level of 
confrontation between Washington and Beijing.  The United States 
believes that all Taiwan needs are defensive weapons that can help 
the island resist attacks from Beijing, and that the island might 
hit [China's] strategic locations or points once it is in possession 
of offensive weapons.  This explains why the United States has been 
monitoring every move of Taiwan, including its development of 
offensive weapons and whether it has obtained nuclear weapons. ... 
 
"The Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles developed by the Chung-Shan 
Institute of Science and Technology have a capability similar to 
that of the United States' Tomahawk missiles.  The development of 
such missiles has been going on for six years, but the United States 
purposely overlooked it during this period of time.  The fact that 
Washington waited until the critical moment when Taiwan is about to 
produce and deploy these missiles to stop the island is a typical 
two-pronged strategy. 
 
"History showed that the United States has previously stopped Taiwan 
from developing Tien Ma mid-range ballistic missiles and atomic 
bombs, and it also waited until these projects were about to 
succeed.  In addition to its desire to dictate the regional 
strategic balance, Washington also intended to use Taiwan's 
developing capabilities as a bargaining chip to restrain Beijing. 
By demanding that Taiwan abandon its offensive weapons, Washington 
can ask Beijing to show some goodwill gestures.  It can also drop a 
hint to Beijing that if the latter insists on threatening 
cross-Strait peace, the United States does not need to launch 
Tomahawk missiles; it can simply let go and let Taiwan do whatever 
it pleases." 
 
¶4. Iraq 
 
"Checks and Balances" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] 
editorialized (4/30): 
 
"It is all but certain that President Bush will lose the war in 
Iraq, now that the Democrat-controlled Congress is determined to 
call it quits.  A time table has been set for U.S. troops to pull 
out, contrary to the president's request for a surge. The U.S. 
Congress is working effectively to check Bush's power. ...  The 
timetable is certain to doom President Bush's high-stakes gambles in 
Iraq.  He succeeded only in taking out Saddam Hussein, but he will 
not be remembered as a victor.  His dream for Iraq oil, which he had 
thought would pay for Iraq's post-war reconstruction, has turned 
into a nightmare.  A democratic Iraq is now the killing fields of 
sectarian war. ... 
 
"What can be expected is that President Bush will keep fighting, 
with his veto, against what a Republican senator called a surrender 
in Iraq.  The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near, for 
Bush's war as well as for Bush himself.  The days are numbered, so 
are the days of suffering and bloodshed.  The U.S. Congress should 
get credit for doing its job well.  Democracy works only when there 
are effective checks and balances.  This week we have seen how 
democracy is working in the United States and why democracy is the 
worst political system except all others that have been experimented 
with from time to time, as so aptly described by Sir Winston 
Churchill." 
 
¶5. Olympic Torch Relay Issue 
 
A) "Taiwan Needs to Be Prepared Not to Participate in Beijing's 
IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE 
 
Olympic Games" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 500,000] 
editorialized (4/28): 
 
"... Using the proposed [Olympic] torch route to belittle Taiwan is 
just the latest move in China's application of united-front tactics 
toward Taiwan in the [run-up to] Olympic Games.  China's intention 
is evident:  [Beijing's] arrangement for the torch to take a turn in 
the north and bypass Taiwan to arrive in Vietnam, and then to go 
from Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City to Taipei and to Hong Kong, Macau, 
and other inland cities of China was aimed at making Taipei the 
'first stop of [China's] domestic route.'  Also, its calling Taiwan 
'China, Taipei' will also help reinforce the false image in the 
international community that Taiwan is a province of China. ..." 
 
B) "Good Riddance to the Olympic Torch" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (4/28): 
 
"The disingenuousness of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) 
is breathtaking.  To allow China to host an Olympics at all should 
have been warning enough; for IOC officials to now feign surprise at 
Taiwan's unhappiness with its proposed torch route suggests that 
there are still many feeble words and actions to come from them in 
the months to come. ...  The presence of the torch was always going 
to be 'political'; the real question was how the politics was going 
to be employed and whether an understanding was ever possible 
between Taipei and Beijing. ...  It is difficult to see how a 
compromise can be reached without either side backing down, and 
neither side will be inclined to do so. ..." 
 
C) Aborted [Olympic] Torch Relay [to Taiwan] Is a Small Matter, but 
[Taiwan's] Absence from the Olympic Games Will Be a Huge Issue" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (4/28): 
 
"... It has been forty years since the Olympic torch last entered 
Taiwan.  It will not be such a big loss for the island if the torch 
does not come to Taiwan this time.  But what is really worth noting 
is whether Taiwan will decide not even to participate in the 2008 
Olympic Games in Beijing.  Chances are that this could really 
happen, given the DPP government's manipulative approach in raising 
the [level of] confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan 
Strait. ... Perhaps there is little chance of making any change 
regarding the torch relay issue, but one must not allow political 
manipulation to sabotage [the island's] participation in the Olympic 
Games. ..." 
 
D) "Torch Furor Getting Carried Away" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (4/29): 
 
"... We support the principle of avoiding activities that diminish 
the status of our government and bolster Beijing's illegitimate 
claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.  However, we strongly disagree 
with the way that President Chen Shui-bian and Premier Su 
Tseng-chang have distorted the Olympic torch relay route issue and 
 
SIPDIS 
turned it into an international controversy. ...  If President Chan 
and his supporters did not want the Olympic torch to pass through 
Taiwan on its way to mainland China, we would have preferred to hear 
them simply say so.  But warning the international community that 
Taiwan's athletes might not participate in the Olympic Games is a 
foolish and even dangerous proposition that could end up causing 
tremendous harm to us. ..." 
 
YOUNG