VZCZCXRO6775
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0229/01 0741842
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151842Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4037
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4791
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0644
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE 0580

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ XV FJ
SUBJECT: GNZ PREPS FOR PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM 
 
REF: SUVA 155 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  The March 15 PIF Foreign Ministers meeting 
will have a limited role for Fiji, in part to ensure that 
interim PM Bainimarama cannot complain that members acted 
behind Fiji's back.  The GNZ believes the outlook is good for 
PIF ministers to agree that Fiji should abide by the EPG 
report, but that it is doubtful that Fiji will agree.  Oddly, 
PM Bainimarama recently wrote to PM Clark to complain that 
New Zealand had convinced other countries to pressure his 
government.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Heather Riddell, Director for Pacific Affairs at the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT), told PolEcon 
Couns that the format for the March 16 Pacific Island Forum 
(PIF) Foreign Ministers meeting in Port Vila will include a 
role for Fiji's interim government.  Fiji's Interim Foreign 
Minister will be present Fiji's remarks on the Eminent 
Persons Group (EPG) Report, and the Interim Attorney General 
will be given opportunity to explain why the Interim 
Government maintains it will not be possible for Fiji to hold 
elections within the next three years.  The Fiji 
representatives will then withdraw from the meeting, leaving 
the PIF Foreign Ministers to decide what to do next.  The 
Ministers will then report their common views back to the 
Fiji reps. 
 
¶3.  (C) Riddell admitted the format is unusual and carries 
some risk of an unpredictable outcome, but says it will 
prevent the interim Fiji Government from claiming that its 
fate is being decided behind its back.  That being said, the 
GNZ does not have great hopes that Fiji will agree to the 
findings of the rest of the group.  The only possibility of 
reaching consensus with Fiji at the meeting would be if the 
interim FM agreed to elections within the 18-24 month 
timeframe set out in the EPG report.  Riddell views this as 
unlikely, however, as according to NZ's High Commission in 
Suva, the interim Government does not feel pressured to 
accept a faster time line.  For its part, the GNZ views even 
18-24 months as too long, but is willing to consider with 
other PIF members a packet of election assistance to help 
persuade Fiji to accept it.  Even if rejected, offering the 
package would weaken Fiji's claims that it does not have the 
resources to hold elections within three years. 
 
¶4.  (C) Despite the likelihood that Fiji will not accept the 
EPG findings, the GNZ feels the probable dynamic at the 
meeting will be favorable for consensus among other PIF 
members, especially as Melanesian Spearhead Group members 
reportedly still feel irritated with Bainimarama.  The trick 
will be to ensure that Australia and New Zealand don't drive 
the meeting so hard that the PICs feel pressured, as this 
could drive them into being more sympathetic to the Interim 
Government. 
 
¶5.  (C) The GNZ believes the other key ingredient for success 
at the meeting will be a carefully crafted official 
communique.  Whereas normally such reports are the product of 
consensus, Riddell says that because it is unlikely that Fiji 
will agree with the other members, reaching complete 
agreement would require watering down the report's language 
to the lowest common denominator.  The GNZ will therefore 
push for "consensus minus one," allowing Fiji to include an 
opposing viewpoint in the communique. 
 
¶6.  (C) Regarding next steps, Riddell believes it unlikely 
that the PIF will impose sanctions on Fiji, and that this is 
just as well because it would be too divisive for the PICs. 
Unlike the Commonwealth, the PIF has no mechanism to formally 
suspend members.  Riddell therefore believes the PIF 
Ministers will need to provide guidance on Fiji's 
participation in regional meetings.  The question is unlikely 
to be formally decided on at the March 16 meeting, however, 
but will probably be tasked for the Secretariat to coordinate 
with PIF members.  Assuming Fiji fails to accept the findings 
of the rest of the group, Riddell says there may be room for 
non-PIF members, notably the EU, to consider additional 
measures to pressure the interim government. 
 
¶7.  (C) Riddell also told PolEcon Couns that FM Peters has 
not been in touch with Bainimarama recently despite their 
formerly close relationship.  But, oddly, Bainimarama 
recently wrote to PM Clark.  He complained not about the 
actions her government has taken in response to the Fiji coup 
but that the GNZ had convinced other governments to take 
similar measures. 
 
WELLINGTON 00000229  002 OF 002 
 
 
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