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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000165 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2012 
TAGS: MOPS PREL EAID NATO IZ AF LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PLANS ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN 
 
REF: 06 RIGA 1056 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Recent decisions by the UK and Denmark to 
draw down their troops in Iraq, and suggestions that 
Lithuania may do the same, have had little impact in Latvia. 
The GOL continues with its plan, developed last fall and 
extensively briefed to partners, to make the current rotation 
of combat troops in Iraq its last, consistent with the 
handover to the Iraqis of responsibility for security in the 
areas where Latvian troops operate.  When the current unit 
returns to Latvia in July, Latvia will retain a small number 
of personnel in MNF-I in headquarters positions and in the 
NATO training mission.  Latvia plans to increase the number 
of troops in Afghanistan, but op tempo and logistical 
shortfalls mean that the largest increase in troops may not 
occur until early 2008.  Resource constraints and political 
realities make it unlikely that Latvia will alter this plan. 
End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Latvia currently has about 110 combat troops in Iraq, 
serving with the Polish MND in Diyawaniyah.  Latvia has 
participated in OIF since 2003 and in that period, three 
Latvians have been killed.  The most recent casualties were 
in December, when two soldiers were killed by IED while on 
patrol (reftel).  Last fall, as the Poles began to plan for 
the handover of security responsibilities to the Iraqis, 
Latvia saw a possibility to reconfigure its contribution to 
OIF.  Frustrated at working with the Poles and noting the 
importance to NATO of the ISAF mission in the context of the 
NATO summit in Riga, the GOL decided it would send one last 
combat unit to Iraq and thereafter shift its efforts to ISAF. 
 The unit currently deployed in OIF will return in July. 
Before announcing this decision, a Latvian delegation flew to 
Warsaw to brief the Poles and coordinate with them on the 
plan.  The Latvians also feel that in meetings with USG 
officials, including when Def Min Slaketris saw then-SecDef 
Rumsfeld last July, we have not raised any objections to this 
plan and indicated our understanding that their posture in 
Iraq would change.  The GOL has briefed both parliament and 
the public that this will be the last rotation of combat 
troops in Iraq, although it will continue to provide soldiers 
to MNF-I headquarters elements and participants in the NATO 
training mission in Iraq (NTM-I). 
 
¶3. (C) The Latvians currently have 26 soldiers in ISAF 
serving as part of the Norwegian PRT in Maymana. They plan to 
increase that number to 72 by the end of August.  They are 
willing to deploy as many as 150 troops to ISAF if the right 
fit can be found.  The Latvians are willing to supply 
uncaveated troops and to serve in the south of the country, 
but for reasons of logistical support needs they need a 
partner nation and, thus far, have been unable to find one 
that would allow them to serve in the south.  The logistical 
realities of shifting the focus of efforts from Iraq to 
Afghanistan means that it will likely be early 2008 before 
Latvia could have its full deployment in ISAF. 
 
¶4. (C) While increasing its military contribution to ISAF, 
Latvia is considering how to better contribute to the whole 
of government approach in Afghanistan that we have been 
advocating in NATO.  Beginning later this year, Latvia will 
provide the political advisor to the head of the Norwegian 
PRT (although they are having some difficulties identifying a 
mid-level diplomat willing and able to serve in Afghanistan). 
 Latvia will also provide the assistance and development 
coordinator for the PRT.  MFA sources tell us that they will 
look to find additional money in their budget to increase 
their development assistance in Afghanistan (without having 
to take from their priority countries of Moldova, Georgia, 
Belarus and Ukraine).  Their recent NATO non-paper on 
building an information sharing database in Afghanistan 
(which the Latvians say received an enthusiastic reception 
from NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer) highlights the enthusiasm for 
this mission within the bureaucracy.  Finally, the Latvian 
interagency is working to deploy two police officers as part 
of the ESDP mission in Afghanistan. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: We believe that the Latvians are firmly fixed 
on this course.  The Iraq deployment remains very unpopular, 
with polls consistently showing 80 percent public opposition. 
 While the vote in parliament last December to renew the 
mandate for participation in OIF was quite strong (69 in 
favor), we believe that this stemmed in large part from the 
fact that the government had already decided that there would 
only be one more deployment of combat troops.  Additionally, 
MOD officials tell us that the Iraq mission, which is carried 
out solely by volunteers, has severely stressed the military, 
as the deployed unit is cobbled together from among those 
 
RIGA 00000165  002 OF 002 
 
 
willing to go.  In fact, the current unit is short of full 
strength by a few soldiers as not enough were willing to go 
on this rotation and most of the ones there are on their 
second and third deployments.  In contrast, the ISAF mission 
has much higher levels of public and political support and 
many more soldiers are willing to serve there.  The ability 
to provide political guidance to the ISAF mission as a NATO 
member, in contrast to the Iraq mission, is also important to 
the Latvians.  As the host of the NATO summit in November, 
the GOL, and especially President Vike-Freiberga, feels that 
Latvia must increase its ISAF contribution.  The irony is 
that Latvia is willing to provide what many of the European 
allies are not - capable, uncaveated infantry troops, 
deployable anywhere in Afghanistan.  But to do that, they 
need a partner nation to assist with the logistical needs for 
which Latvia lacks economies of scale.  They will likely stay 
with the relatively safe Norwegian PRT unless another partner 
nation can be found. 
BAILEY