VZCZCXRO1233
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0064 0681522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091522Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0109
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0030
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0115

UNCLAS PODGORICA 000064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MARR MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO STARTS ON LONG PATH TO NATO 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary and Introduction: Montenegro started down its 
long road to possible NATO membership last December 14, when it 
joined NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP), after the invitation 
from the Riga Summit.  The campaign to gain popular support for 
NATO membership will likely prove difficult. Only 36.6 percent 
support joining NATO in a February 2007 poll, with 34.6 percent 
opposed.  Support for the EU, in contrast, is at 74.0 percent, 
with only 8.4 percent opposed. Poll numbers have been relatively 
unchanged since 2003. End summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) In Montenegro, the strongest opposition to NATO comes 
from self-described Serbs, supporters of the political 
opposition.  They view NATO as either the military organization 
that bombed Serbia, and the main airport and some military 
installations in Montenegro, in 1999; or as a military alliance 
that does America's bidding -- or both. But even government 
supporters - half of the populace -- are not unified in support 
of the GoM's commitment to join NATO.   A senior member of 
President Vujanovic's staff told poloff March 5 that they see 
the most receptive audience as those with "no opinion" - 28.8 
percent in the last poll. He added that only 5 to 10 percent of 
those opposed could be won over to support. If and when the day 
comes for Montenegro to consider an offer to join NATO, a 
referendum on the question is very likely. The opposition has 
already requested such a vote, and members of the President's 
office and MFA have told poloff that the government would likely 
accept the request when it became timely. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Post, in cooperation with USNATO, has sponsored three 
journalists on "NATO Tours." One of those journalists is 
currently producing a documentary on NATO for broadcast on 
public TV; an excerpt has already aired  Post is also working 
with other NATO embassies here on public diplomacy outreach to a 
broader cross-section of the populace, including schoolchildren. 
 NATO's International Staff (I.S.) has recently begun periodic 
visits to Montenegro, and includes a public diplomacy officer 
and program component in those trips. There are reports that 
NATO IS may open an office here. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) The Ministry of Defense is new, and still small - only 
ten staff at present, including the Minister.  The Dutch have 
begun a two-year, Euro 620 thousand project to help stand up the 
MoD, to be implemented by the D.C.-based NGO The Jefferson 
Institute.  The Jefferson team told poloff March 9 that a key 
element of their program will be assisting the MoD stand up a 
public affairs/legislative affairs unit, to be charged with 
proactive outreach on the role of the military in independent 
Montenegro, and on Montenegro's partnership with NATO. 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) Comment: As shown by the polls, public opinion on NATO is 
frozen. Post believes that stereotypes of NATO are widely held 
(even among supporters), and that a sustained public diplomacy 
campaign will be needed to inform the citizenry, and create 
broad and genuine support for NATO's political and military 
agenda -- and greater Montenegrin activity in PfP. End comment. 
 
BARNES