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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/16/2032 
TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL JA CH TW
SUBJECT: WEATHER GIVES OKINAWA GOVERNOR OPTION OF SIDE-STEPPING 
SENKAKUS VISIT 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate 
General Naha, U.S. Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
(SBU)  Summary:  The new administration of Okinawa Prefectural 
Governor Nakaima made its first large public misstep on the 
international stage, when it cancelled a publicly-announced over 
flight of the disputed Senkaku Islands.  While Japan considers 
the Senkakus part of Okinawa Prefecture, China and Taiwan also 
claim them.  Shortly after the governor announced his intent to 
visit the Senkakus, courtesy of the Japan Air Self Defense 
Force, local representatives of China and Taiwan sent protest 
letters.  A hasty consultation with the governor's executive 
committee revealed a number of drawbacks for the prefecture in 
irritating China, but the conservative governor was loath to be 
seen as giving in to China's claims.  Providently nasty weather 
the morning of the planned flight permitted the governor to 
postpone the visit, and spend some time thinking about his next 
move.  End summary. 
 
(U)  On March 6 Okinawa Prefectural Governor Hirokazu NAKAIMA 
publicly announced plans to fly over the Senkaku Island chain on 
March 13, courtesy of Japan's Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF). 
The island chain is uninhabited and considered by the GOJ to be 
part of Okinawa Prefecture.  China and Taiwan also claim the 
Senkakus.  The United States does not take a position on the 
sovereignty of the islands, but considers them within territory 
under Japanese administration.  There are firing ranges and 
water training areas provided under the Status of Forces 
Agreement for US military use on and around the islands of what 
the central government calls Kuba Jima (Kobi-sho on USG-GOJ maps 
and Huangwei Yu in Chinese, using identical Chinese characters) 
and Taisho Jima (Sekibi-sho and Chuiwei Yu).  The areas have not 
been used by the US military for decades, but Okinawa and 
mainland Japanese papers reported the purpose of the governor's 
visit was to view the military facilities. 
 
(SBU)  Reiji FUMOTO, the Okinawa Prefectural Government's 
(OPG's) senior counselor for Military Base Affairs, told us that 
the trip was one of many Nakaima was making to see all of the 
territory within Okinawa prefecture, not specifically the U.S. 
military areas.  Apparently the JASDF needed a military-related 
reason in order to justify flying a prefectural governor, and 
the old training ranges provided the link.  The press reported 
Nakaima also planned to fly over the oil and gas fields in the 
East China Sea to consider whether they could be exploited to 
Okinawa's benefit.  Several of our contacts in Okinawa's 
business and political circles have told us they, too, have 
 
NAHA 00000049  002 OF 004 
 
 
flown out on JASDF or Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) 
planes on "fact finding missions." 
 
(C)  Within days of Nakaima's announcement, the Chinese 
Consulate General in Fukuoka (whose consular district includes 
Okinawa Prefecture) sent a letter protesting the visit to 
disputed territory, and requesting Nakaima cancel his trip. 
The letter advised that Nakaima's visit could have a negative 
effect on Sino-Japanese relations.  The Taiwan equivalent to a 
consulate general also sent a protest letter.  Nakaima initially 
shrugged off the requests, asking rhetorically why he ought not 
visit islands in his own prefecture.  MOFA's Special Ambassador 
to Okinawa Toshinori SHIGEIE told ConGen Maher that he had 
advised Nakaima that MOFA would not oppose him visiting the 
Senkakus.  He added, however, that MOFA hoped to avoid taking a 
public stance on Nakaima's trip, due to the pending visits of 
high-level Chinese officials to Tokyo.   MOFA was apparently not 
speaking with one voice at all levels, however.  An Embassy 
Tokyo contact at the OPG office in Tokyo said MOFA 
"highhandedly" urged the OPG to reconsider the governor's flight. 
 
(C)  Notwithstanding his public nonchalance, Nakaima called 
together his two vice governors and treasurer on March 12 to 
reconsider whether to make the trip.  Afterwards, OPG announced 
that the over flight would go forward as scheduled on March 13. 
Meanwhile, staff at the OPG's military affairs office privately 
told ConGen Naha that it would, in fact, be postponed.  Later, 
at the ConGen's residence, Vice Governor Zenki NAKAZATO was 
preoccupied.  He worried aloud to dinner guests, who included 
visiting Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer and China 
hand Frank Januzzi.  Nakazato was most afraid the flight could 
adversely impact an agreement with China to lend the OPG some 
Ryukyu Kingdom artifacts from the Chinese National Museum for 
the November opening of the new Okinawa Prefectural Museum. 
Nakazato was also concerned that the over flight might derail 
discussions regarding direct commercial air service between 
Beijing and Naha. 
 
(C)  On the other hand, Nakaima himself was determined not be 
seen as deferring to Chinese claims to the Senkakus.  He had 
received calls from various leading conservatives, including 
former Minister for Okinawan Affairs Toshimitsu MOTEGI, urging 
him to hold fast and make the trip.  OPG sources told us they 
and the governor were genuinely surprised by the international 
attention, and were in a bind.  The prefecture wanted to avoid 
crossing the Chinese, without appearing to cave in to their 
demands. Januzzi, half in jest, told Nakazato the governor's 
best course of action was to pray for bad weather so he could 
postpone the flight. 
 
 
NAHA 00000049  003 OF 004 
 
 
(C)  The morning of March 13, Nakaima went to the airport and 
met with the commander of the JASDF based in Okinawa, as 
scheduled.  The skies were heavily overcast, with wind gusts and 
rain showers.   Accompanied by the JASDF commanding officer, 
Nakaima announced to the gathered media that his trip was 
postponed due to unfavorable weather conditions.  He insisted to 
reporters that the postponement had nothing to do with outside 
pressure, and that he wanted to reschedule the over flight as 
soon as feasible.  The Ryukyu Shimpo opined on March 14 that the 
governor put himself in a bind, saying that unidentified OPG 
officials strongly implied that the postponement was, in fact, 
indefinite (i.e., permanent.)  Embassy Tokyo's contact at the 
OPG's Tokyo office said that announcing the trip in advance had 
been a strategic mistake, and it was unlikely Nakaima would ever 
execute the planned visit. 
 
(C)  March 14 Hiroshi NAKAMATSU, Executive Director of the 
Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) Okinawa branch, also told us 
that Nakaima should have just flown to the Senkakus without 
announcing it in advance.  Okinawa Prefectural Assembly members, 
Okinawa Chamber of Commerce members, and political party 
leadership, including Nakamatsu, flew out to the Senkaku islands 
from time to time, courtesy of either the JMSDF or the JASDF. 
Nakamatsu speculated that Nakaima had probably already seen the 
Senkakus because of his roles as head of Okinawa Electric 
Company, chairman of the Defense Association, or chairman of the 
Okinawa Chamber of Commerce.  Perhaps, Nakamatsu guessed, 
Nakaima and the few OPG officials with whom he consulted in 
advance just failed to imagine that his role as governor would 
make a difference 
 
(C)  Comment:  We think it is possible that OPG career officials 
were genuinely surprised by the international reaction.  The 
issue would certainly not have been discussed during eight years 
under the administration of the extremely cautious previous 
governor, Keiichi Inamine.   JASDF/JMSDF fly overs for Okinawa's 
political and business leaders are almost matter-of-course.  In 
late 2006 Consul General Maher himself was offered the chance to 
ride along on a JMSDF flight carrying local business leaders 
(which he politely declined, citing a scheduling conflict.)  The 
OPG has been entirely directed toward intra-prefectural concerns 
and its relationship with the national government, and its 
international contacts have been limited to commercial and 
cultural issues.  Career OPG staff is now on alert and decidedly 
leery of attempting another Senkaku trip.  As for Nakaima 
himself, he has struck us as a tenacious and savvy operator.  It 
seems unlikely that he was caught wholly unaware by the 
controversy.  Nakaima might postpone the flight to a date with 
lower risk of endangering OPG interests, but we suspect there 
will one day be press reports of a completed over flight.  End 
 
NAHA 00000049  004 OF 004 
 
 
Comment. 
MAHER