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102374
2007-03-28 23:31:00
07MEXICO1581
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
07MEXICO6569
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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: ZOCALO RALLY SHOWS AMLO'S CONTINUED STRENGTH -- 
AND SCARES THE LEFT  
REF: A. MEXICO 6569 
 
     ¶B. MEXICO 5318 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay, Reasons 
: 1.4(B/D). 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Until the March 25 closing rally in Mexico 
City's central square or "Zocalo," many political analysts 
and observers, including many PRDistas, were writing off 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) 2nd National Democratic 
Convention (NDC) as an utter failure.  Although AMLO managed 
to attract a few thousand supporters to the NDC's inaugural 
event on March 21, the NDC's activities/events in the days 
that followed were designed to give shape and substance to 
AMLO's opposition movement, were poorly attended and scarcely 
covered in the press.  Its closing ceremony, however, scored 
a major internal PRD victory for AMLO as he once again nearly 
filled the Zocalo.  The rally's turnout exceeded general 
expectations and served as a reminder that AMLO remains a 
dominant -- and potentially divisive -- figure on Mexico's 
left.  End Summary. 
 
NDC Opens Quietly... 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On March 21, failed 2006 PRD presidential candidate 
(and self-proclaimed "legitimate" president) AMLO kicked off 
his 2nd National Democratic Convention (NDC) at a park in 
downtown Mexico City addressing approximately 3,000 people. 
He vowed to continue his struggle to change the country in a 
non-violent manner.  He said that the NDC aimed to protect 
the masses (pueblo) and defend Mexico's national patrimony 
(i.e., oil reserves), urging his supporters to participate in 
the NDC's meetings and activities which were to conclude with 
a mass rally in the Zocalo on March 25. 
 
¶3. (C) On March 22nd and 23rd, six NDC working groups met to 
discuss various political, economic, and social issues.  The 
working group meetings received little media coverage.  In 
conversations with poloff Raul de la Paz and Mary Carmen 
Soria, two well-connected PRD members, were highly critical 
of the working groups, complaining that they were poorly 
organized and attended and that nothing productive came out 
of them. 
 
...But Concludes on a High Note 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) After a recess on March 24, the NDC concluded on March 
25 with throngs of AMLO supporters marching down Mexico 
City's main avenue and gathering in the city's central square 
or "Zocalo" to listen to AMLO raise and denounce the spectre 
of PEMEX privatization, call for shifting Mexico's tax burden 
from workers to business, rail against rising prices and urge 
that NAFTA be renegotiated.  Overall participation in the 
concluding rally is unclear and neither local officials nor 
the press put a figure on crowd size.  Poloff, present at the 
event, agrees with the general estimate that while turnout 
was significantly smaller than at AMLO's last two 
post-election rallies (see reftels) it was nevertheless 
impressive. 
 
PRD Reaction to NDC 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) The large turnout in the Zocalo surprised many 
PRDistas, given the low-profile, poorly attended events of 
the previous days.  Both Soria and de la Paz told poloff that 
many in the party were shocked with the turnout at the rally, 
given that little overt effort was put into organizing the 
event.  Moreover, although Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard 
shared the stage behind AMLO, this is the first major AMLO 
post-election rally where city government (GDF) coordination 
and resources were absent, according to sources.  (Note:  See 
reftels which note the use of GDF funds to support AMLO's 
post-election activities.) 
 
¶6. (C) Soria noted that AMLO's rival factions in the PRD, 
mainly the New Left or "Los Chuchos (named after faction 
leader Jesus "Chucho" Ortega)," did nothing to support the 
NDC and were secretly hoping for a lower turnout that would 
underscore AMLO's political demise.  Instead, turnout was 
greater than expected, and leading newspapers described the 
 
MEXICO 00001581  002 OF 002 
 
 
event as indicative of his continued leadership of the PRD 
and the left.  De la Paz said the March 25 rally worried the 
Chuchos, who were gambling against the convention's success. 
Many leftist luminaries shared the dais with AMLO on Sunday, 
but the only Chucho leader visibly present was PRD Senate 
coordinator Carlos Navarrete.  Ortega himself was no where to 
be seen, and all five PRD governors -- all affiliated with 
the party's moderate factions -- were also absent. 
 
Lessons Learned? 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C) When asked what AMLO's continued ability to turn out 
the masses means for the party, de la Paz -- who does not 
align himself with any particular PRD faction -- said it 
reflected a strong possibility of a permanent PRD fracture 
and the emergence of a new party.  He explained that AMLO and 
his cronies already had the means and structure in place to 
create a new party.  Since September, the NDC has collected 
information -- using NDC-delegate registration forms -- on 
over a million supporters country-wide.  He said that if AMLO 
ever decided to form a break-away party, he would use this 
contact list to recruit members.  He said whether or not AMLO 
goes this route depends on what happens at the PRD's 
extraordinary Congress in August.  AMLO hopes to consolidate 
his position within the party through the election of a key 
supporter, former Mexico City mayor Alejandro Encinas, as the 
PRD president.  If the election does not go AMLO's way, he 
may decide to start a new party, asserted de la Paz, who 
estimated he could take as many as half of PRD adherents with 
him. 
 
¶9. (C) Soria, previously skeptical of the significance of 
internal party fissures, did not dismiss this possibility 
when she met with poloff's shortly after the Sunday meeting. 
She described the current PRD as a "marriage of convenience." 
 However, she said, neither AMLO nor his PRD opponents are 
ready at this point to divorce and split the assets.  Soria 
agreed that August's party congress would be an important 
turning point. 
 
What's Next for AMLO? 
--------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) The NDC agreed to meet again on November 20, 
overriding calls by some of AMLO's supporters for rallies on 
July 2 (the anniversary of the 2006 presidential elections) 
and September 16 (Independence Day).  AMLO unveiled few 
follow-on activities between now and then beyond a series of 
unspecified encounters and tours, including a trip to the 
U.S.  According to PRD federal deputy Cuauhtemoc Sandoval, 
AMLO will travel to Los Angeles, Chicago, and Texas May 1-5 
to speak at universities and participate in conferences.  He 
will also meet with migrant workers and various Mexican 
leaders.  Soria and de la Paz confirmed AMLO's planned travel 
to the U.S. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C) Sunday's rally showed that AMLO is far from cold to 
the touch. He pulled a respectable crowd and  moved from 
venting about the July 2 elections to hot button issues as 
privatization, inflation and pension reform.  Still, by 
putting off the next big NDC event for many months, AMLO 
disappointed those who had hoped he would unveil a grand 
strategy to derail Calderon's agenda, (which received a boost 
this week from the Senate passage of a pension reform 
package).  And rather than galvanize Mexico's left, the event 
demonstrated he still wields enough power and support to 
divide it.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
BASSETT