VZCZCXRO1448
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0152/01 0601035
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 011035Z MAR 07
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8560
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 8387
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0169
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0149
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0150
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 0164

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000152 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK 
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR 
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH 
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: ELECTION YEAR PORK BARREL POLITICS IN OSUN STATE 
 
REF: 06 LAGOS 1364 
 
LAGOS 00000152  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: To improve his heretofore tepid and 
scattered support, Osun State Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola 
has actively distributed patronage in the run up to the April 
2007 election.  His main opponent is Action Congress (AC) 
candidate Rauf Aregbesola, whose campaign theme is Oyinlola 
has mostly wasted the people's money and has little concrete 
to show for his four years in office.  Notwithstanding these 
criticisms, Oyinlola's control of the levers of power means 
this People's Democratic Party (PDP) Governor is in the 
driver's seat to claim a second term.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Osun State Visit Shows Oyinlola Strengthening 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Osun State People's Democratic Party (PDP) Governor 
Olagunsoye Oyinlola was a professional soldier.  After 
serving in the peacekeeping force in Somalia, Oyinlola served 
as Administrator of Lagos under the Abacha regime from 1993 
to 1996.  He reportedly amassed a fortune in the process. 
After retiring from the military in 1999, Oyinlola spent a 
brief interlude in the UK before running for Governor of Osun 
State in 2003, defeating incumbent Governor Bisi Akande of 
the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in a disputed outcome. 
 
¶3.  (C) Some political observers predicted Oyinlola would 
face a difficult election in 2007.  Political Science 
Lecturer Adeolu Durotoye of the University of Ibadan told 
Poloff his contacts indicated Oyinlola was unpopular and was 
facing a difficult opponent in Action Congress (AC) candidate 
Rauf Aregbesola.  However, Durotoye's contacts now indicated 
a turning in favor of Oyinlola.  Poloff's visit on January 
23-24 showed Oyinlola has strengthened his position as he has 
initiated politically popular projects. 
 
¶4.  (U) A visit to Oshogbo showed some activity and 
construction, though the city experienced numerous power 
outages.  Home to the UN Cultural Heritage Site the Oshogbo 
Shrines, the city has a new hotel and growing art activity. 
Roads were passable.  Some were good.  Poloff noticed however 
the road connecting Oshogbo to the Akure-Ibadan highway, 
repaved last year, had already deteriorated considerably. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Development Projects and the Chinese Help Oyinlola 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5.  (U) Poloff met the Osun State Governor's Press Secretary, 
Lasisi Olagunju.  Brimming with confidence, Olagunju boasted 
of Oyinlola's achievements in roads, electricity, school 
construction, and poverty alleviation.  Visitors have 
assessed Osun's agricultural potential, but no agreement with 
them has yet been reached. 
 
¶6.  (U) Liadi Gbadamosi, a local government administrator, 
said Oyinlola worked with the 30 Local Government 
Administrations (LGA) to plan a development strategy.  Each 
Local Government Council (LGC) received 5 million naira 
(approximately $39,000) for development to spend as they saw 
fit.  This, Gbadamosi remarked, was to allow the LGCs to have 
projects they can point to as their accomplishments. 
 
¶7.  (C) Olagunju told Poloff a new Chinese pharmaceutical 
factory would bring jobs to Osun State.  Oyinlola has been to 
China twice, Olagunju explained, and the Chinese government 
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to build a $15 
million factory to manufacture anti-malarial drugs.  Olagunju 
predicted the factory would be finished by June 2007, a 
prediction which startled Aregbesola Campaign Manager Felix 
Awofisayo. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
New University Well-Timed for the Election 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) Oyinlola has also been aggressively promoting new 
 
LAGOS 00000152  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
projects.  To much local fanfare, Oyinlola laid the 
cornerstone for Osun State University on January 23.  The 
Guardian editor in Oshogbo, Seun Adeoyi, told Poloff there 
had been public clamor for a state university, which had gone 
unheeded until now.  Oyinlola had plans for a university with 
five satellite campuses throughout the State.  Each satellite 
campus would have a ceremonial event which will generate more 
positive publicity for the Governor, Adeoyi said. 
 
¶9.  (C) The opposition previously had cited the lack of a 
university as a failure of the Governor, but Oyinlola had 
effectively quashed this argument, Adeoyi asserted.  Adeoyi 
told Poloff that Oyinlola claims the mantle of the late Bola 
Ige, who strongly supported education as a stepping-stone to 
development.  Oyinlola delayed until now to announce the 
university because he wanted to amass the proper funding, 
Adeoyi asserted. 
 
¶10. (C) Commenting for the Aregbesola campaign, Awofisayo 
charged Oyinlola delayed the university project because he 
actually did not see it as a priority.  Oyinlola waited until 
the election season to announce the project for maximum 
political impact with minimal fiscal strain, according to 
Awofisayo.  Awofisayo termed the university project a "crude 
political ploy".  "Responsible government", Awofisayo 
remarked, "will not wait until the last moment to implement a 
university project". 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
EFCC Investigation No Impediment to Oyinlola 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) On corruption, Adeoyi said although the Economic and 
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) listed Oyinlola as one of 
the 31 Governors under investigation, the EFCC had not given 
its results.  Interestingly, Adeoyi told Poloff Oyinlola was 
popular because people knew the Governor was independently 
wealthy and did not need to help himself to the State 
treasury.  (Comment: In 2005 Oyinlola was caught in the Ikoyi 
housing scandal.  In Ikoyi, a wealthy neighborhood of Lagos, 
many prominent Nigerians including Oyinlola received 
favorable terms for prime housing.  End comment) 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
AC Opposition Hurt by Attacks, Still Resilient 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶12. (C) The opposition AC has provided the strongest 
opposition to PDP, but the AC has had to deal with recent 
defections and PDP criticism of its candidate.  Aregbesola, 
the former Lagos State Commissioner for Public Works, is a 
close ally of Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu.  According to 
Adeoyi, some in Osun felt Tinubu had imposed Aregbesola on 
the State.  Because of his ties to Lagos, some people in Osun 
see Aregbesola as an outsider. 
 
¶13. (C) Moreover, the legacy of Bisi Akande's governorship 
may harm the AC in Osun.  Akande is currently the AC National 
Chairman.  As Osun Governor, Akande made the fiscally prudent 
but politically maladroit move of dismissing thousands of 
teachers.  Conversely, Oyinlola brought back some of the 
teachers.  Akande, a blunt, straight-talking person, made 
similarly unpopular moves and this has affected how some 
voters view the AC, Adeoyi said. 
 
¶14. (C) Awofisayo claimed the State is yearning for a change. 
 Oyinlola has lacked focus and planning, Awofisayo continued. 
 The 900 million naira (approximately $7 million) honeycomb 
roads projects to link villages to the state road network 
went for naught.  Oyinlola claimed credit for international 
aid projects he had nothing to do with, Awofisayo charged. 
On the other hand, Akande built the state secretariat, 
initiated a World Bank development project, and was fiscally 
responsible.  In response to claims that Aregbesola is a 
carpetbagger, Awofisayo replied Aregbesola has always had 
ties to Osun and owns a home in Ilesha.  Osun politicians, 
Awofisayo pointed out, often leave the State only to return 
later. 
 
------- 
 
LAGOS 00000152  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. (C) Oyinlola, who has been on the Nigerian political 
scene for a long time, has the state government and PDP 
machinery as his support and can point to some development 
projects and progress as warranting a second term. 
Objectively, his record for achievement is mediocre.  While 
some roads are good, many appear to be deteriorating again 
and Osun has done little to create a better environment for 
economic growth.  The much-lauded university has barely 
broken ground.  With Obafemi Awolowo University already in 
Osun one wonders whether Osun really needed another. 
However, Oyinlola's favor with Obasanjo has won the State a 
promise from the Chinese to construct a pharmaceutical 
factory.  The opposition will try to expose the weakness in 
Oyinlola's claims, but the Governor's use of patronage has 
bolstered his support and has presented the opposition an 
uphill climb.  End comment. 
BROWNE