VZCZCXRO0121
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0381/01 0791217
ZNR UUUUU
P R 201217Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000381 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SCA FOR CEN; 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENGR EAID TI AF
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: LIGHTS OUT AND EVERYONE HOME-AND COLD 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 199 
 
DUSHANBE 00000381  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY:  Even as Tajikistan seeks to become a regional 
energy exporter, most of Dushanbe has had only four to six hours 
of power each day for the last month.  Many parts of rural 
Tajikistan have remained without any electricity throughout the 
winter, but the fact that the capital is experiencing severe 
power rationing and shortages underscores how desperately 
Tajikistan's state-owned power utility Barqi Tojik needs to 
reform.  Although generation projects under construction - such 
as the 670 megawatt Sangtuda-I hydropower station scheduled to 
go on line in Spring 2008 - will eventually alleviate some of 
the shortages, without a real overhaul of the entire electricity 
system, Tajik citizens will remain in the dark. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  In addition to World Bank and Asian 
Development Bank technical assistance projects, USAID's Regional 
Energy Markets Assistance Program is working to reform 
Tajikistan's ailing electricity system and establish a 
competitive and transparent electricity market.  However, it 
will take political will as much as technical assistance to 
ensure that Tajiks get reliable power.  Further, if Tajikistan 
does indeed start exporting electricity to Afghanistan and 
Pakistan under the proposed Central Asia South Asia Regional 
Electricity Market (CASAREM) project, without ensuring its own 
citizens have adequate light and heat, President Rahmonov may 
finally face an angry populace tired of being left in the cold. 
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Since mid-February, most parts of Dushanbe only have 
electricity from approximately 6 am to 8 am and 5 pm to 10 pm, 
and some areas go 24 - 48 hours without any power.  Downtown, 
home to many government offices and President Rahmonov and his 
family, remains lit, but government offices in outlying areas, 
such as the Tax Committee, suffer as much as ordinary residents. 
 The Deputy Head of the Tax Committee - Tajikistan's equivalent 
of the Internal Revenue Service -- told PolOffs he rushes to the 
office to print out work between 7 and 8 am and then goes home 
because there is nothing else to do in the cold building. 
 
¶4.  (U) The problem extends throughout the country.  In Sughd 
province in the north, and Khatlon in the southeast, electricity 
comes for an hour in the morning and an hour in the evening. 
The Pamir region Gorno-Badakhshan, which last year was the only 
region to have winter electricity full time, is still reeling 
from the effects of the February accident at the Pamir-I power 
station and has only limited hours of electricity distribution 
(Reftel).  Press reports have noted that Takistan's biggest 
enterprise, Tajik Aluminum, has cut its production by two-thirds 
in response to the electricity shortage. 
 
¶5.  (U) In addition to an inefficient distribution system, the 
shortages stem both from a lower level of water in Tajikistan's 
biggest reservoir Nurek, and lower than usual winter energy 
imports from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.  Desperate Tajik energy 
representatives met with Uzbek counterparts several times this 
winter to increase energy inputs to little avail.  Demand has 
also grown-as the old centralized steam heating systems no 
longer work, many residents try to heat their apartments with 
small electric or kerosene heaters, despite the inefficiency of 
heating individual units in large cement block buildings.  The 
government has predicted the shortage will continue a few more 
weeks, until the water level in Nurek goes up and warmer 
temperatures reduce demand for home heating. 
 
¶6.  (U) Normally unwilling to confront the government, Dushanbe 
residents raise their hands and shrug in response to the 
inconvenience.  However, contacts have told EmbOffs that in 
southern Farkhor district angry residents burned goods in a 
cotton cleaning factory to protest the fact that the factory has 
electricity, while the town went without.  Other rumors report 
that citizens in Voseh district publicly tore up a picture of 
President Rahmonov, and clashed with the local police in Kulyob 
over the electricity rations. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  COMMENT.  Tajiks somewhat blame Uzbekistan for the 
energy shortages, but mostly the Tajik government for its 
inability to harness Tajikistan's massive hydro resource 
potential.  Tajik contacts regularly tell EmbOffs that they 
expect the government to resolve these electricity issues in the 
next year or two.  Continued power shortages have the potential 
to threaten the delicate stability within Tajikistan.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000381  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
 
JACOBSON