VZCZCXRO7027
PP RUEHLMC RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHPB
DE RUEHDT #0089/01 0651416
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 061416Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3330
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0834
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0794
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0901
RUCNMCM/MCC COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0728
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0649
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0610
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2677

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DS/IP/EAP 
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY 
PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/2/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MAAR ASEC KPKO UN AU TT
SUBJECT: TURMOIL IN DILI AS REINADO HUNT CONTINUES 
 
 
DILI 00000089  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Stanley Harsha, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy 
Dili, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Stanley Harsha, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy 
Dili, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Dili remained calm but very tense March 6 as 
the unresolved Reinado operation and the expected March 7 
Roserio Lobato court verdict kept the population on edge.  No 
serious injuries or deaths were reported although there were 
widespread disturbances the night of March 5, continuing again 
the afternoon of March 6.  Australians began evacuating 
dependants March 6; meanwhile UNMIT leaders remained confident 
that its current phase two status was sufficient, that the 
current crisis would not lead to widespread violence, and that 
UNPOL and International Stabilization Forces (ISF) could handle 
expected levels of civil unrest.  President Xanana Gusmao, in a 
speech broadcast night of March 5, reiterated the government's 
resolve to use existing laws to crack down on civil 
insurrection, concluding the speech with a threat to resort to a 
state of civil emergency should civil unrest continue. 
Meanwhile, a coalition of three opposition political party 
leaders met with Emboffs late afternoon March 6, expressing 
their grave concern that Reinado has widespread support in the 
western part of the country, and that failure to resolve the 
crisis with his peaceful surrender could cause instability.  End 
Summary. 
 
State of emergency? 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) A speech by President Xanana Gusmao broadcast the night 
of March 5 was initially interpreted in some quarters as an 
announcement of a state of emergency while the speech in fact 
simply emphasized that all currently available legal and 
procedural mechanisms are to be used to combat crime.  However, 
the speech concluded by warning that "where normal measures 
reveal themselves to be insufficient~the State may have to adopt 
more serious measures, such as the state of siege."  The 
President's speech also stated that he had consulted with the 
Council of State, the Superior Council for Defense and Security, 
as well as UNMIT and GOET leaders, a necessary precursor to such 
a declaration, which also requires parliamentary authorization. 
National Parliament was due to discuss such an authorization, 
but had failed to reach a quorum for two days.  In discussions 
with U.S. Charge d'Affaires March 6, SRSG Atul Khare stated that 
he opposes such a step, but continues to support a long-awaited 
presidential decree to allow limited curfew and house-to-house 
searches, a decree which is languishing in Parliament. 
 
¶3.  (C) In the wake of the President's speech, worries arose 
that an expansion of the role of the Timorese armed forces 
(F-FDTL) to include deployment in Dili and / or the districts 
might be in the works.  The Prime Minister's office announced 
March 6 that he was authorizing an expansion of F-FDTL static 
security duties beyond the Government Palace and one other 
location, where they have been for several months, to include a 
total of eight facilities, including both government and major 
infrastructure sites.  This presence was initiated the same day 
and observed at the Pertamina pier, Timor Telecom, the city's 
main power station and several ministries.  However, both F-FDTL 
and Australian Defense Cooperation sources said there are 
currently no moves afoot to get F-FDTL involved in mobile 
operations; SRSG Khare also confirmed to the CDA that F-FDTL 
deployment would not expand beyond those static duties, and 
would be only a first line of defense until international forces 
could arrive.  US Defense Representative Major Koli Ati told us 
that that F-FDTL commander, Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak, 
is fully aware of the ramifications of such a move. 
 
 
DILI 00000089  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
Dialogue with Reinado? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Embassy March 6 received a March 4 document from Alfredo 
Reinado's (AR) lead Timorese lawyer, in which he lays out the 
terms under which he is willing to "surrender."  The lawyer told 
the CDA by telephone that he is not in direct contact with AR 
but is communicating with him via an unknown third party.   AR's 
attorney said he delivered this document, "Statutory Declaration 
- Alfredo Alves Reinado," to the Prosecutor General's (PG) 
Office, but has heard no response.   This lawyer told the CDA 
that a main sticking point to progress on this front is AR's 
insistence that the PG return to Same to meet and discuss, while 
PG has made it clear that any further discussion must take place 
in Dili.  Meanwhile, press reports today noted that JRH has 
indicated a willingness for "dialogue" although it is not clear 
what he means by this, before or after AR's surrender.  Media 
reported JRH as saying that provided AR contacts him via the 
Church or the President, he is prepared for a dialogue to 
discuss AR's surrender, and that operations against him would 
stop immediately under these conditions. 
 
Xanana's activities 
---------------------- 
 
-5.  (C) Gusmao was observed by Poloff and others to be serious 
and angry at his March 4 and March 5 press conferences.  He was 
reportedly very actively working on the AR crisis.  Two speeches 
in a row in the last two days strongly reiterated his position 
on Reinado, the first speech directly warning AR's supporters 
who are try to undercut GOET efforts, and the second one 
announcing a move towards a state of emergency.  In addition, he 
has reportedly been holding an intensive meeting schedule. 
Several sources reported that Gusmao met with representatives of 
National Unity Movement for Justice (MUNJ) on March 10.  Each of 
the western districts are to send a representative to discuss 
the Reinado crisis and the Lobato verdict issues. 
 
Pro-Reinado dynamics 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  It is apparent that much of the last three nights' 
disturbances were pro-Reinado but getting a clear handle on the 
dynamics is difficult.  In several neighborhoods, martial arts 
groups and other groups that had been in ongoing conflict have 
laid aside their differences in a show of pro-Reinado/Loromonu 
solidarity.  However, in some neighborhoods conflicts appeared 
to be continuing without reference to Reinado.  MUNJ's role is 
also murky.  Yesterday MUNJ held a press conference at which 
they reiterated their demands that Gusmao rescind his arrest 
order and call off the ISF; however, they also appealed to the 
population to refrain from any attacks on internationals, 
including the ISF, who are ultimately "here to help us".  MUNJ 
is probably playing a double game.  One of their key 
coordinators in Cova Lima district "Sesurai" stated 
unequivocally to an Embassy staff member that their strategy was 
to unite the Dili youth and target UN vehicles. 
 
¶7.  (C)  One unprecedented dynamic is that several Timorese 
employees of international NGOs have been arrested for 
participation in recent nights' disturbances.   These are young 
men with well-paid and high status jobs.  According to a source 
at CARE, they appear to have been subject to coercion or 
intimidation to participate. 
 
¶8.  (C)   Meanwhile, while it seems that the sympathy for 
Reinado's cause remains strong in the western districts (and 
among some Dili youth), it does not appear to at this time to be 
manifesting itself as a significant groundswell of pro-Reinado 
activity.  A pro-Reinado demonstration held in Suai yesterday 
reportedly drew about 40 participants.  MUNJ had planned to 
mobilize demonstrations in Dili on March 8, but has called them 
off and is planning only local demonstrations in Suai and 
Maliana.  American citizens resident in Maliana and Aileu report 
business as usual and continued good relations with local 
residents. 
 
DILI 00000089  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
Opposition Politicians Express United Concern 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  Eight leaders from a coalition of three opposition 
political parties expressed their grave concern over the Reinado 
situation to the CDA in a meeting they requested on March 6. 
Leaders of the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Party 
(PD), the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Timorese Social 
Democrat Association (ASDT) asked the U.S. Embassy to use its 
influence to plead with authorities to resolve the Reinado 
crisis through dialogue rather than continued force.  PD 
President Joao Carascalao said Reinado has strong support 
ranging from the central Manatuto district all the way to the 
western border:  "We are concerned about stability.  I'm sure he 
has a lot of sympathy."   The opposition leaders said they are 
appealing to the GOET to guarantee that if AR comes to Dili that 
he will not be killed.  The leaders of the three parties further 
said they met with the Bishop, obtaining his agreement to act as 
an intermediary, a step that they believed might work in 
convincing AR to surrender.  They said they took this option to 
JRH who promised he would act on it but were told by the Bishop 
that JRH never contacted him, the opposition leaders claimed. 
They wondered why AR walked out of prison last August, why the 
government did not act months ago when arresting AR would have 
been easy, and why the GOET is acting now just weeks before 
presidential elections.  They further added that they are 
sympathetic with the difficult position the Australians are in, 
and that they should not be blamed for this situation. 
 
Preparing for Lobato verdict 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C//NF)  A potentially major complicating factor in the 
current crisis is the expected March 7 Roserio Lobato verdict. 
If  Lobato is found not guilty, it is likely to further inflame 
Reinado supporters (Note:  These supporters from the outset 
called for Lobato and Alkatiri to be brought to justice.)  The 
verdict is likely to be perceived by these supporters as a 
whitewash orchestrated by a Portuguese judge with close ties to 
FRETILIN, and as proof that legitimate channels for challenging 
the government are useless.  Ramos-Horta's testimony in favor of 
Lobato will contribute to his being lumped together with 
FRETILIN insiders as part of the problem.  A high-ranking 
contact in the UN mission's political section told Emboffs on 
March 6 that there was no question a not guilty verdict would be 
a disaster. 
 
¶11.  (C//NF) If Lobato is found guilty, it could very well 
dampen enthusiasm for challenging the system, since the verdict 
can be held up as proof that the system, while imperfect at 
times, ultimately works.  PD President Fernando Lasama Araujo 
told us March 5 that there was a good chance that Reinado might 
turn himself in if Lobato was given a heavy sentence.  While 
this is likely overly optimistic, a guilty verdict could go a 
long ways towards stealing much of the anti-establishment 
movement's thunder and providing a new opportunity for Reinado 
to compromise without losing much face.  Depending on how heavy 
the sentence is, however, either Lobato opponents or Lobato 
supporters might have cause for outrage.  If the sentence is 
seen as too light, then his opponents will treat it much like a 
not guilty verdict.  If it is seen as too heavy, his supporters, 
who have been fairly quiet of late, may lash out.   We also 
believe Lobato, who likely is aware of misdeeds by others in the 
Alkatiri administration, including the former Prime Minister 
himself, may very well turn on his previous allies if he 
receives a sentence he views as unfair. 
 
Security update 
------------------ 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Widespread apparently pro-Reinado disturbances 
occurred in Dili for a third night in a row the night of March 
5, in primarily the same swathe of neighborhoods.  Illegal 
roadblocks comprising of burning tires, large stones, felled 
trees, and other debris were set up throughout these areas and 
 
DILI 00000089  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
many remained in place through the day.  Interestingly, while 
these disturbances have been noisy, frightening to residents, 
and generally disturbing, there have been no reports of serious 
injuries or deaths, according to hospital sources and aid 
workers.  However, there was significant government property 
damage.  As of late afternoon March 6, unrest began anew, with 
security forces firing warning shots to break up gang fighting 
in one neighborhood and with tire burnings reported at two other 
locations. 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  Australian evacuation began on March 6, with many 
planning to fly out morning of March 7.   No other missions have 
gone to evacuation status, though most are implementing security 
restrictions.  The UN is committed to remaining at phase 2, but 
plans to maintain a dusk to dawn curfew until at least until 
March 12.   UNPOL has gone to 12-hour shifts to increase 
manpower on streets; however, UNPOL sources continue to note 
that they are spread thin in their ability to respond.  Further 
exacerbating this, they claim, is the decreased presence of ISF 
in Dili resulting from shifting of many ISF resources to Same. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) SRSG Khare, on the other hand, believes that the 
current unrest is actually much less than might have been 
expected in the wake of the Reinado operation, and that unrest 
is limited to small groups.  Saying that unrest will not spread 
widely, Khare added that the three UNPOL units and three ISF 
companies in Dili, plus the 80 GRN expected later this month, 
can handle disturbances.  He noted that UN is staying at phase 
two despite the fact the 80 of their cars have been attacked in 
the past couple of weeks.  He said the UN is using its two 
bulldozers to go out in the early morning and clean out debris 
in an approach to give the population a sense of civil order. 
 
 
 
 
 
HARSHA 
 
GREY 
HARSHA