VZCZCXRO3223
PP RUEHLMC RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHPB
DE RUEHDT #0083/01 0611200
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 021200Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3322
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0829
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0789
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0896
RUCNMCM/MCC COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0725
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0646
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0607
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2668

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DS/IP/EAP 
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY 
PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/2/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MAAR ASEC CASC KPKO UN AU TT
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON REINADO STANDOFF AND SECURITY SITUATION 
 
REF: DILI 078 
 
DILI 00000083  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Stanley Harsha, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy 
Dili, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (S/NF) Summary:  At day's end March 2, there had been no 
significant change to the situation on the ground in Same, where 
dissident military leader Alfredo Reinado remains surrounded by 
Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers.  ADF reinforcements 
have arrived in East Timor, but there are indications that ADF 
action against Reinado could be delayed somewhat to allow 
discussions between Reinado and the Prosecutor General to run 
their course.  In contrast to the optimism expressed to us March 
1 by International Stabilization Force (ISF) Commander Brigadier 
Malcom Rerden, Australian analysts attached to the ISF expressed 
greater concern regarding possible backlash, particularly in the 
western districts, if forceful action is taken against Reinado. 
In addition to the loyalty of his close supporters, there are 
strong indications that more mainstream opposition elements also 
continue to sympathize with him.  Meanwhile, the East Timorese 
armed forces (F-FDTL) leaders met March 2 to discuss how to 
intensify the process of dialogue with the military petitioners 
in order to reduce the chances of more of them joining Reinado. 
The international community continues to watch the situation 
closely in terms of its security implications.  Following 
Australia's slight security status upgrade yesterday, sources at 
the UN today reported that they are making preparations to go to 
their next level if needed.  A minor stone throwing injury 
suffered by an ADF soldier today, while not out of the ordinary, 
may impact Australian thinking on these issues.  End summary. 
 
Reinado standoff status 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (S) At day's end, there has been no significant change to the 
situation on the ground in Same.  Dissident military leader 
Alfredo Reinado remained there, with about 40 of his men, 
surrounded by Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers.  Three 
C-130s arrived in Dili last night transporting what we assume to 
be one ADF infantry company group.  Based on information relayed 
by ADF sources yesterday, they will be based in Dili to 
compensate for the infantry company from Dili that is currently 
engaged in Same.  ADF Special Operations Forces elements have 
also arrived, according to the Australian Embassy Charge 
d'Affaires (CDA), and are making preparations for direct action 
upon Reinado's redoubt. 
 
¶3. (C/NF) According to the Australian CDA, Prosecutor General 
Longinhos Monteiro traveled to Same the morning of March 2, 
where he spoke to Reinado by telephone and then returned to Dili 
to brief Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta.  He then flew back to 
Same the same afternoon and spoke directly to Reinado for two 
hours in an open area in full view of the ADF forces, before 
returning to Dili.  Reinado returned to his house.  The 
Australians have not heard the results of the talks but 
Ramos-Horta is to discuss the situation tomorrow morning with 
other GOET officials and the ADF will take their cue on next 
actions from that meeting.  (Note: Australian Ambassador 
Margaret Twomey today departed East Timor and is due back on 
Monday, March 5.  We do not know the reason for her departure 
but speculate that she will be in Canberra to discuss the 
situation.) 
 
Australian analysts worried about backlash 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (S/NF) In contrast to the optimism expressed to us yesterday 
by International Stabilization Force (ISF) Commander Brigadier 
Malcom Rerden, Australian analysts attached to the ADF expressed 
greater concern regarding possible backlash.  They raised 
questions about how the population in the western districts will 
respond to the outcome of the Reinado standoff, and were 
uncertain as to whether national or international security 
institutions in country will be able to manage "what comes 
 
DILI 00000083  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
next."  At a minimum they believe there will be demonstrations, 
but at this time it cannot be ascertained who the target will 
be.  They indicated that the population in western Timor could 
express anger towards the leadership of East Timor, including 
President Xanana Gusmao, concluding that it was the national 
leadership which gave the ISF permission to launch its 
operation.  They also stated that the military petitioners were 
"on the fence with their feet dangling on the Reinado side" 
regarding the possibility of joining Reinado, but believe they 
lack weapons and would likely not be much of a threat.  They 
also confirmed that there was a letter presented to the 
Australian Embassy earlier this week signed by gang leaders in 
many of the local area internally displaced person (IDP) camps 
and leaders of martial arts groups (MAGs).  The letter 
reportedly stated that all IDP camps and MAGs are seeking the 
expulsion of all Australians from East Timor, and that they will 
engage in disruptive activities in order to achieve that end. 
 
Indications that pro-Reinado sentiment is mainstream 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5. (C) As noted in reftel, the National Unity Movement for 
Justice (MUNJ) is squarely behind Reinado and, in fact, are 
essentially in lock step with his arguments.  In addition, there 
are strong indications that more mainstream opposition elements 
continue to sympathize with him.  In a conversation today with 
Emboff, opposition Democratic Party (PD) Secretary General 
Mariano Sabino characterized Reinado as primarily a victim 
rather than an agent of the crisis and someone whose primary 
goal has been to secure justice.  He cited as a double standard 
the concept of going after Reinado for "weapons transfer" issues 
in light of the actions of Fretilin and others during the 
crisis.  He particularly referred to the "Railos" group in 
Liquica, which former Minister of Interior Rogerio Lobato is 
accused of arming, also with weapons taken from the border 
patrol unit (BPU).  While he does not agree with Reinado's 
recent actions, he questioned the President's prerogative to 
declare the February 25 weapons seizure illegal and order 
arrest, noting that this is the function of a law enforcement 
investigation and the Prosecutor General, not of the head of 
state.  Overall, his assessment is that a forceful ADF action 
vis-a-vis Reinado has the potential to produce a serious 
backlash.  The fact that this view is coming from one of the 
more intelligent and thoughtful members of the opposition is of 
note. 
 
F-FDTL leadership discusses the petitioner issue 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (C/NF)  East Timorese armed forces (F-FDTL) leaders met on 
March 2 at Hera Port Naval Base to discuss ways to intensify the 
process of dialogue with the military petitioners, in keeping 
with the recommendations of the Commission of Notables.  F-FDTL 
Commander, Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak, stated to CDA and 
US Defense Representative in a March 2 meeting that it was 
important to initiate immediate dialogue with the petitioners in 
order to mitigate the likelihood that they will go over to the 
pro-Reinado side.  He, like ISF Commander Rerden, also seemed to 
downplay concerns for "what comes next" following the conclusion 
of the Reinado episode.  He stated that F-FDTL knows who the 
potential agitators are, that these individuals are being 
"pressured" to keep things under control, and that he has shared 
this information with the ISF.  In addition, Ruak said he told 
the ISF about all of the key terrain throughout the Same region 
that should be of tactical interest to their planners, and that 
now all relevant sites are occupied by ISF elements.  Lastly, he 
emphasized that President Xanana Gusmao's resolve remains strong 
and steadfast. 
 
Injury to ADF soldier may impact Australian calculations 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶7. (C) An ADF soldier was injured this afternoon as a result of 
being hit in the eye with a rock thrown by an East Timorese 
youth in the Dili suburb of Bebonuk, about one kilometer west of 
Embassy-Dili.  It is believed that this incident occurred in 
 
DILI 00000083  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
conjunction with an altercation between ISF elements and youth 
gangs at a rice warehouse.  In and of itself, this is not an 
event of major significance; similar attacks against ISF 
soldiers have occurred previously in the gang fighting context. 
However, in light of the fact that it comes in the midst of a 
period in which anti-Australian sentiment appears to be on the 
rise, incidents such as this may have a greater impact on 
Australian thinking about security issues. 
 
UN and Australia security alert status 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Australian Embassy yesterday upgraded their security 
status to level 5 "light".  Normally level 5 would involve the 
evacuation of non-essential staff and dependents; however, the 
Australian Embassy is not evacuating anyone at this time.  The 
UN has also upgraded their security status without actually 
going to the next level.  They remain at level 2, but are making 
preparations for the possibility of going to level 3.  The UN's 
level 3 would require evacuation of dependents and UN 
volunteers.  (Note: a UN volunteer evacuation could have 
significant impact on election preparations as a large number of 
electoral assistance in the districts is being provided by 
UNVs.)  The US Embassy sent out a warden message last night 
updating security advice to American citizens in light of the 
situation in Same and the potential for anti-Australian 
sentiment to escalate and be indiscriminate regarding 
foreigners.  We are currently awaiting confirmation of the 
posting of a new Travel Warning from Consular Affairs. 
HARSHA