VZCZCXRO1416
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHCO #0217/01 0801151
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211151Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY COTONOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9364
INFO RUEHLMC/MILLENIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1079
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0124
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0297

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000217 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W (DBANKS) 
KAMPALA FOR FLINTROP, LONDON FOR HAHN, PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREPARATIONS CONTINUE AMID RISK 
OF POSTPONEMENT 
 
REF: A) 06 COTONOU 1226; B) 06 COTONOU 1213 
 
COTONOU 00000217  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Two coalitions and one party seem to be the major 
contenders in Benin's March 25 legislative elections. Without 
clearly developed policy stances to distinguish the candidates, the 
elections have assumed the form of a referendum on the Yayi 
government's performance during its first-year in office, with one 
coalition slate clearly emerging as the Yayi-favored candidates. 
However, arguments over how to transport electoral materials, budget 
problems, and apparently dysfunctional leadership of the national 
electoral commission have combined to feed rumors that the vote may 
have to be postponed for a week or two.  After a March 20 meeting 
with election commission officials, at which Yayi promised to cover 
per diem costs, the elections once again appear likely to take place 
as scheduled.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TWENTY-SIX PARTIES AND COALITIONS ARE RUNNING 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Of the twenty-six parties and coalitions to submit 
candidate lists, three appear to have reasonable hopes of winning a 
significant number of the 83 seats in the National Assembly on March 
¶25. President Yayi has given his informal endorsement to the Force 
Cowrie for an Emergent Benin (FCBE), and was reportedly involved 
personally in choosing the FCBE's slate. The FCBE manifesto is 
little more than a call to support Yayi and give the President a 
clear legislative majority to enact his program. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Yayi's forces may well win big.  However, a vocal 
alternative has emerged in the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), 
supported by Adrien Houngbedji, whom Yayi defeated in the run-off of 
the 2006 presidential elections. The PRD's election manifesto is 
negative, criticizing the government's failure to improve the 
economy or people's daily lives. How well the PRD does will serve as 
a useful measure of whether Yayi still enjoys a political honeymoon, 
or whether the public has grown fed-up with continued power cuts, 
the disappointing cotton harvest and continued criminality across 
the country.  Another major coalition, the Dynamic Democratic 
Alliance (ADD), brings together the parties of the third, fourth and 
fifth-place candidates from the first round of the 2006 presidential 
elections. All three endorsed Yayi in the second round, but their 
subsequent relationship with Yayi has been far from smooth. 
Therefore the ADD cannot be described as either pro- or anti-Yayi, 
muddying its campaign strategy.  The historical strength of the 
three main coalition members in their regional strongholds means ADD 
could well emerge with an important number of seats in the new 
legislature. 
 
¶4. (U) CAVEAT: While we think these three slates will win a large 
majority of the seats in the next legislature, that is far from 
certain.  Benin has no pollsters and no professional media coverage 
of the campaign (most newspaper reports on the election campaign are 
paid for by the candidates themselves).  So it is possible that, 
among the other twenty-three slates, there may be one or two with 
electoral appeal about which we are unaware.  END CAVEAT. 
 
MANAGEMENT AND BUDGETARY CONCERNS THREATEN TIMELY ELECTION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) In the meantime, the Independent National Election 
Commission (CENA) has struggled from crisis to crisis.  One key 
Embassy civil society contact told the Ambassador on March 20 that 
this year's CENA was "the worst we have ever had in Benin." 
According to this contact, the troubles began when the CENA members 
selected an ineffective party functionary allied with a second-tier 
slate as CENA president.  The CENA then got into a stare-down with 
the government over whether to use military vehicles to transport 
electoral materials as a cost-saving (and graft-avoiding) measure. 
The CENA caved on the issue after two weeks of delay, but only after 
publicly airing their internal disagreements in the media (local 
media coverage of the workings of the CENA is much more informative 
than that of the election itself).  Currently, some local level 
election officials have refused to deliver the voter registration 
lists they compiled to the CENA, until they are paid a lump sum 
beyond their allotted per diem. As of March 20, the CENA was still 
awaiting voter lists from five departments out of twelve in the 
country. 
 
¶6. (SBU) This week as well, CENA's internal strains came to a head, 
with a majority of CENA members objecting to the Commission 
President's unilateral decision to award the ballot printing 
contract to a printer who had not been recommended by the CENA's 
procurement committee.  On March 20, by a vote of 20 in favor with 3 
abstentions, the CENA members replaced the President with another 
 
COTONOU 00000217  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
CENA member allied to a different second-tier slate.  The CENA also 
overturned the award of the ballot printing contract, and said it 
would take measures to ensure that two versions of the ballot would 
not circulate.  A CENA member told the Embassy privately on March 19 
that it was possible, due to these difficulties, that the CENA might 
ask the government to postpone the elections, at least for a few 
days. 
 
¶7. (U) The government has grown so concerned by the confusion in the 
election bodies, that it publicly convoked all of the country's 
election officials to a meeting at the Presidential Palace on March 
¶20.  At that meeting, President Yayi assured the officials that the 
government would compensate them, and urged them to fulfill their 
duties.  Media reports claimed this has calmed the election 
officials.  Outstanding voter lists are supposed to be handed over 
to the CENA on March 21 at the latest. 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  With the developments of March 20, it appears 
Benin's legislative elections will be held on schedule on March 25. 
Postponement of the elections would be a serious embarrassment for 
Benin, tarnishing its reputation as a beacon of stability and 
democracy in West Africa.  It need not, however, provoke a 
constitutional or political crisis -- as long as the postponement is 
endorsed by both the government and the Constitutional Court, and 
lasts no longer than a week or so to allow the CENA to pull itself 
together and organize the elections.  In any case, Post plans to 
observe the election in major population centers.  END COMMENT. 
 
BROWN