VZCZCXRO3897
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHCV #0444/01 0611841
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 021841Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7979
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
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RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000444 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR AID/OTI (RPORTER) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2025 
TAGS: PREL ETRD VE AR
SUBJECT: LIKELY CHAVEZ RANTS IN ARGENTINA AND BOLIVIA 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 000384 
 
CARACAS 00000444  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON, 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (S) Summary.  President Chavez announced February 28 that 
he will visit Argentina and Bolivia starting on March 9-10, 
the same time that the President is visiting Brazil, Uruguay, 
and Colombia.  Chavez is publicly criticizing the President's 
upcoming visit to Latin America and is helping organize 
anti-American protests in and outside Venezuela.  The 
Venezuelan president can be expected to deliver further 
rhetorical attacks on the President and on U.S. foreign 
policy to try to divert public and media attention from the 
President's Latin America visit.  We anticipate that Chavez 
will try to trumpet the Bolivarian Alternative" to free trade 
(ALBA) and Venezuelan aid to the region, criticize the World 
Bank, IMF and "savage capitalism", misconstrue U.S. interest 
in ethanol, as well as accuse the U.S. of "imperialism" in 
Iraq and Iran.  While most of Chavez' comments are not likely 
to merit any response, the President's party may find targets 
of opportunities to counter Chavez.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
"This is Our House" 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Since the White House announced the President's March 
8-14 visit to Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, and 
Mexico, President Chavez has regularly criticized the 
President's upcoming travel to the region, calling it a 
"failure in advance" and "an effort to divide South America." 
 Chavez announced in his February 28 radio address that he 
will visit Buenos Aires and La Paz at the same time that the 
President is in Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia, but denied 
his travel was a "conspiracy to sabotage" the President's 
visit.  "Some want us to leave South America," Chavez 
continued, "but this is our house."  Chavez invited 
Venezuelans to attend a "peaceful" march against the 
President's visit.  Pro-Chavez organizations announced March 
1 that they will organize a "Bush Out of Our America" rally 
in Caracas' Bolivar Plaza on March 8 and an 
"anti-imperialist" march on March 12. 
 
¶3. (U) During his February 26 radio broadcast, Chavez 
predicted that the President would be confronted by protests 
on his trip like the violent protests against then 
Vice-President Nixon faced during his 1958 visit to 
Venezuela.  He suggested the President would be met with 
"repudiation," but "hopefully the protests would not be 
violent."  During his March 1 "Alo, Presidente" television 
broadcast, Chavez claimed that the President chose his travel 
dates because the USG thought Chavez would be in the Middle 
East, based on disinformation the BRV fed the CIA.  He 
chatted via telephone with Bolivian President Evo Morales and 
jokingly suggested that both of them host the President for a 
summit in La Paz. 
 
¶4. (S) Chavez is in a position to try to make his prediction 
of protests come true.  Venezuela's embassies abroad actively 
promote, fund, and guide left-wing Bolivarian circles of 
persons sympathetic to Chavez' anti-American foreign policy. 
Chavez has almost certainly asked Venezuelan embassies in the 
region to generate protests against the President's visit, 
just as his government organizes such protests at home. 
According to sensitive reporting, the BRV is providing direct 
support to organize anti-American protests in Buenos Aires 
while Chavez is there. 
 
-------------------- 
The Chavez Songsheet 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) With the caveat that predicting the behavior of the 
intemperate and mercurial Venezuelan president is never easy, 
we expect Chavez will once again try to secure international 
media attention through personal attacks on the President and 
other senior USG officials.  During his February 28 radio 
broadcast, Chavez referred to the President as "the biggest 
genocidal killer in history" and called the Deputy Secretary 
a "war criminal" and an "assassin."  Chavez may even accuse 
the President of planning to assassinate him and/or invade 
Venezuela.  Chavez frequently refers to the President by any 
number of insulting and offensive names such as "the little 
gentleman," "the drunkard," "Mister Danger," and following 
his infamous performance at the UN General Assembly, "Satan." 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) ALBA vs. FTAA: Chavez can also be expected to 
promote his "Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas" (ALBA) 
and denounce regional free trade agreements with the United 
States.  Chavez claims ALBA is a viable new system of 
integration based on "People's Trade Agreements," and 
"complementarity," instead of competition, but in reality 
ALBA's appeal to member-states Cuba, Ecuador, and Nicaragua 
is Venezuelan foreign aid.  While in Buenos Aires, Chavez 
will almost certainly crow that he helped "bury" the Free 
Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) when he attended the Summit 
of the Americas in Argentina in 2005.  In Bolivia, Chavez 
will likely highlight Venezuela's flood relief as tangible 
proof of the BRV's Latin "solidarity." 
 
¶7. (SBU) Viva Socialismo: The Venezuelan president continues 
to argue publicly that capitalism and key international 
financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank are in 
crisis.  During his on-air February 27 telephone conversation 
with Fidel Castro, for example, Chavez claimed that the IMF 
"cannot pay its salaries and is selling gold bars."  In 
Buenos Aires and La Paz, he plans to promote the 
soon-to-be-establshed Bank of the South (BancoSur) as a more 
socially responsible alternative to the IMF.  He can also be 
expected to promote his as yet vaguely-defined "Socialism of 
the 21st Century" and highlight his recent decisions to 
expropriate majority stakes in Venezuela's largest 
telecommunications company (CANTV), the electricity sector, 
and the mixed associations working in Venezuela's oil belt 
("faja"). 
 
¶8. (SBU) Energy: Chavez appears irked at the fact that the 
United States is seriously considering alternative energy 
sources, including ethanol, which he clearly understands 
could enhance the U.S.-Brasil relationship.  Venezuela 
exports over 50% of its oil to the United States, it's 
geographically natural and long-standing biggest buyer. 
Chavez has also falsely asserted that Venezuela has readily 
available markets to sell its oil to countries other than the 
United States.  On February 27 and 28, the Venezuelan 
president asserted that it takes 20 million hectares of corn 
to produce a million barrels a day of ethanol for one year 
and suggested that producing ethanol would create food and 
water shortages (Note: Interestingly, Venezuela has agreed 
with Cuba to construct 11 ethanol plants in Venezuela). 
Chavez said March 1 that he plans to discuss his ideas for a 
gas pipeline running between Venezuela, Bolivia, and 
Argentina. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Iraq and Iran: Chavez is likely to reassert that the 
United States is waging an "imperial war" in Iraq.  After 
Saddam Hussein was hanged, Chavez fondly recalled his 
meetings with the former Iraqi dictator and suggested that 
the USG may be plotting to hang him.  The Venezuelan 
president has personally led BRV efforts to forge a close 
alliance with Iran and has welcomed President Ahmadinejad to 
Venezuela two times in less than six months.  Chavez alleges 
without proof that the USG is planning to attack Iran and the 
BRV continues to parrot Iran's claims that its nuclear 
program is for peaceful purposes only. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Much, if not most, of Chavez's prospective comments 
are likely to be so outlandish that the President's party may 
not want to dignify them with a response.  Chavez is often 
his own worst enemy in that regard, just as his remarks to 
the UN General Assembly in 2006 helped doom Venezuela's 
efforts to secure a UN Security Council seat. 
 
BROWNFIELD