VZCZCXRO9763
OO RUEHCN RUEHDBU RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #2130/01 0890937
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 300937Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6378
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002130 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP/CM, EUR/RUS, SCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2017 
TAGS: PREL ENRG RS CH ZK KN
SUBJECT: HU JINTAO'S UPBEAT VISIT TO RUSSIA: EXTENDING 
LEADERS' POLITICAL CONSENSUS TO GRASS-ROOTS LEVEL? 
 
REF: A. BEIJING 1679 
     ¶B. MOSCOW 1291 
 
Classified By: Mark Tesone, Acting Political External Unit Chief. 
Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Chinese scholars say President Hu Jintao's March 26-28 
visit to Russia solidified the China-Russia political 
strategic partnership and helped expand that partnership to 
economic and cultural fields.  Given the Hu-Putin consensus 
on most bilateral and international political issues, 
including the DPRK, Iran and the SCO, the trip focused on 
improving economic and trade ties, resulting in US$4.3 
billion in contracts and a huge trade fair.  Presidents Hu 
and Putin agreed to expand energy shipments to China and, for 
now, Beijing is content to accept ambiguity over an oil 
pipeline and gas prices, scholars said.  Party media 
celebrated the trip for opening the China Year in Russia and 
because it will be the last state visit between the two 
leaders.  But judging from the low enthusiasm about the visit 
in commercial media and some skeptical web postings, much 
remains to be done to convince the Chinese public there is a 
solid basis for expanding future ties.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Extending Elite Consensus To Grass-Roots? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) President Hu Jintao's March 26-28 visit to Russia 
aimed to establish a basis in economic, cultural and 
people-to-people exchange that will allow the China-Russia 
strategic partnership to expand in future years, according to 
scholars Wang Lijiu and Jiang Li of the Russian Institute at 
China's Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institute 
of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).  Almost "no 
political difficulties exist between the two countries," Wang 
said, noting that Presidents Hu and Putin share a common 
outlook on most bilateral issues.  As a result, President Hu 
emphasized that the relationship should reach a new level of 
"regular mutual trust" and "mutual economic benefit." 
Cultural events under the banner of the China Year in Russia 
will try to extend that leadership consensus down to the 
grass-roots, where xenophobic attitudes persist in both 
countries, Wang told poloffs.  The Duma's recent law banning 
independent Chinese traders from the Russian Far East is an 
example of that xenophobia, he said. 
 
No View Toward Putin's Successor 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Hu met with Putin, Premier Fradkov and Duma Chair 
Gryzlov before traveling to Tatarstan, according to Russian 
Embassy political officer Denis Agafonov.  With the opening 
of the Year of China in Russia and a vast trade fair, 
Agafanov said the atmosphere was one of celebration because 
this will be the last state visit between the two leaders, 
who nonetheless will meet several times in multilateral fora 
before Russian elections in 2008.  Some scholars had 
predicted the visit would aim to let Hu meet likely 
post-Putin leaders of Russia, but CICIR's Wang said this was 
unlikely, noting that Russia's succession process is not far 
enough along for Hu to predict who the next Russian leaders 
might be. 
 
Economic, Trade and Technology Benefits 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The US$4.3 billion in contracts signed during the 
visit provides the most concrete result from the trip, 
CICIR's Jiang said, noting that a huge trade fair brought 
together many large Chinese and Russian companies for the 
first time.  China looks forward to acquiring some further 
technology as part of the agreement to launch a space probe 
to Mars, Wang said, adding that the countries also agreed to 
cooperate on a "super jetliner," although additional work 
remained before that project could be announced. 
 
International Topics: DPRK, Iran, SCO 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) China and Russia see "eye to eye" on most 
international issues, the Russian Embassy's Agafanov noted, 
such as the desire for a "more multi-polar world with greater 
balance."  Resolution of the border dispute means they face 
no negative bilateral political issues, he added.  Wang said 
the leaders agreed to continue to use their "special axis" 
 
BEIJING 00002130  002 OF 002 
 
 
within the UN to cooperate on the DPRK and Iranian nuclear 
issues.  The leaders also discussed the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization (SCO), the possibility of SCO expansion and the 
planned SCO military exercises to be held this summer in 
Russia, Agafanov said. 
 
¶6. (C) Jiang noted that the 2007 SCO military exercise will 
help to improve mutual trust between the Chinese and Russian 
militaries and enhance their ability to deal with 
non-traditional security threats.  The scholars acknowledged 
that China and Russia have both proposed expanding their 
contributions to the SCO exercises recently, a process Jiang 
called a "my missiles are bigger than yours" cycle of 
one-upsmanship.  Wang doubted that Presidents Hu and Putin 
discussed the military exercise in any level of detail.  The 
exact scale of the exercise has yet to be decided, he said, 
but noted that past media reports suggesting Armenia or 
Belarus would participate in the exercises were erroneous. 
 
Energy: It's Not Just About Pipelines 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Media reports suggesting tension during the visit over 
an oil pipeline from Russia to China are exaggerated, the 
Russian Embassy's Agafanov said, noting that Putin previously 
agreed that a Russian pipeline to Siberia will export oil to 
Northeast China at Daqing.  CICIR's Wang said the pipeline to 
Daqing would be built, but differences remain over the volume 
of oil to be pumped to China's branch of the pipeline versus 
a second branch from Siberia to the Pacific coast. 
Establishment of a Russian natural gas pipeline to China 
(from either Siberia or Sakhalin) has also been delayed by 
questions of policy and price, Wang said.  China believes 
Russia is torn between building the necessary infrastructure 
to export oil and gas to Asia and increasing its control over 
energy transport in the eastern part of the Former Soviet 
Union, he said.  Jiang added that squabbling within the 
Russian government and between Russian companies will make 
energy shipments via pipeline from Russia unreliable in the 
near-term future.  As a result, China will focus for now on 
increasing oil shipments by rail, as authorized by an 
agreement signed during Hu's visit, she said. 
 
¶8. (C) Agafonov noted that bilateral energy cooperation 
includes significant electricity exported from Russia and 
cooperation on atomic energy, including a large 
Russian-supported venture in Gansu Province.  The two 
countries also engage in joint exploration for energy 
resources and cooperate in coal mining, he added. 
 
Media Reports Celebratory, But Netizens Cautious 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶9. (C) The tone of media coverage of President Hu's trip to 
Russia has been overwhelmingly positive.  Party organs such 
as the People's Daily have kept the trip on the front page 
throughout the week, complete with banner headlines and large 
color photos lauding the Year of China in Russia.  Articles 
have stressed productive bilateral cooperation, particularly 
in the areas of economics, security and technology. 
High-circulation commercial dailies such as the progressive 
Beijing News have covered the story with less fanfare, 
generally relegating articles to inside pages, although the 
announcement of cooperation on a Mars probe earned pride of 
place on the paper's cover. 
 
¶10. (C) The Propaganda Department has not handed down any 
specific coverage guidelines about the trip, said Wang Feng 
(protect), an editor at the influential bi-weekly Caijing 
Magazine.  Caijing has no plans to run coverage of the visit, 
Wang said, adding that in media circles, the summit has not 
struck chords because "it has generated nothing much new." 
At the same time, he asserted that many average Chinese 
currently view their northern neighbor with skepticism 
because of recent incidents widely covered in Chinese media 
in which Chinese citizens have been murdered or harassed in 
Russia.  In fact, while Internet chat room activity about 
Hu's trip has been relatively quiet, skepticism about the 
feelings of Russians toward China has been a common theme in 
online forums.  As one participant in the generally 
nationalistic "Mighty Nation" chat room asked rhetorically, 
"Is it safe to travel to Russia during the Year of China in 
Russia?" 
RANDT