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O 011334Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8473
INFO RUCNOSC/OSCE POST COLLECTIVE
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RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ2/HSE/CCJ5//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC//J5/RUE//
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-2/REA/NMJIC-J2//

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY), SCA/PPD, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG PREL SOCI EAID AF TX US
SUBJECT: PDAS MANN SCENESETTER (II): TURKMENISTAN, AFGHANISTAN AND 
ELECTRICITY 
 
REF: A) Ashgabat 242, B) 06 Ashgabat 450 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Post's knowledge regarding Turkmenistan's supply of 
electricity to Afghanistan remains essentially limited to the scant 
and mainly declarative details reported after the Memorandum of 
Understanding (MoU) was signed last April 24 by President Niyazov 
and an Afghanistani delegation headed by Power and Water Resources 
Minister Ismail.  Following is mainly a review of those details. 
Principal questions from Embassy Ashgabat's perspective for PDAS 
Mann to now ask the Energy Minister are offered in para 7. 
 
April 2006 MoU:  Review 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The April 24, 2006 MoU provided for delivery of an 
additional 330 MW of electricity per year over and above the 
approximately 165 MW already being supplied.  The Turkmenistani 
government moreover agreed to upgrade and construct necessary 
infrastructure so as to expand the power network to additional 
Afghanistani towns and cities.  Financial details of the deal were 
not disclosed, but Niyazov announced that Turkmenistan would write 
off half of Afghanistan's debt for previous power supplies, believed 
to be around $8 million, as a gesture of goodwill. 
 
¶3.  (U) Turkmenistani media at the time focused reporting on the 
ambitious Turkmenistan-Herat-Kandahar-Kabul-Mazar-e-Sha rif-Herat 
power loop.  Although in discussions preceding the MoU, Niyazov had 
reportedly proposed increasing Turkmenistan's exports to Afghanistan 
to 800 MW, there was never any discussion of the major specific 
improvements in the Herat grid that such a volume would require. 
Reputed priority for the GOA is the North East Transmission System 
(NETS) that is designed to bring power produced by Afghanistan's 
Shabirgan power plant -- supported by imported power from 
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan -- to the northern and 
eastern regions of Afghanistan.  The proposed link is most likely 
connected to the $6.6 million, 102 km Serhetabad (Turkmenistan)- 
Turghundi-Herat transmission line that is capable of transmitting 
200 MW.  The 2004 Turkmenistan-built link has a 220 kV capacity, but 
it is currently operating at 110 kV.  The two governments agreed 
that Turkmenistani experts would work to resolve the imminent 
voltage upgrade. 
 
¶4.  (U) The signed MOU envisaged the extension of 110 kV power lines 
from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan's Maruchak and Kalay-Nau cities in 
Badghis province and to Hamiyab and Karkin cities in Jawzjan 
province.  The extensions were to increase power from 40 MW to 
approximately 70 MW.  The Turkmenistan government also committed to 
spend its own funds to build an additional dual-circuit 220 kV link 
from the Turkmenabat or Mary power stations in Turkmenistan to the 
Afghan border to ultimately connect to Shabirgan and deliver up to 
300 MW.  The GOA would then link the Shabirgan substation to the 
Turkmenistan border.  Shabirgan already receives approximately 165 
MW via the 110 kV line Imamnazar- Andhoy- Shabirgan built in 2002. 
Both sides agreed that the capacity of the line needed to be 
increased in order to supply additional power to the city of 
Maymene. 
 
Afghan Debt and Turkmen Forgiveness 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The exact amount of Afghanistan's debt was not officially 
disclosed at the time of the MoU, but is known to have been around 
$8 million.  Turkmenistan's official Russian-language newspaper 
Neytralny Turkmenistan reported on April 25, 2006 that the money 
from the repayment of the remaining Afghan debt would be spent on 
construction of power facilities on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan 
border.  On February 26, 2007 newly-inaugurated President 
Berdimuhammedov announced forgiveness of $4.2 million in a phone 
call with Afghanistan president Karzai.  Post understands this sum 
to have represented the remainder of the original, pre-April 2006 
debt, i.e., a new gesture to the Afghans by Turkmenistan.  But it 
might instead represent relief on new debt arising from gas sales to 
 
ASHGABAT 00000247  002 OF 002 
 
 
the Afghans since, and under the terms of, the 2006 MoU. 
 
¶6.  (U) Prior to the MoU, Turkmenistan in 2006 was exporting about 
1.3 GW a year, including 599 MW to Iran and 535 MW to Turkey, as 
well as the 165 MW to Afghanistan.  At the current 
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan power price, $.02/KWh, Turkmenistan's 
potential annual revenue from Afghanistan could reach $9.8 million 
annually (based on approximately 490 MW Afghan import assumption). 
Turkmenistan's total power production in 2005 was 12.8 MW; no 
official figures for 2006 have yet been made public.  The 
Turkmenistanis may be interested in extending power supplies to 
Pakistan to reach a deeper customer base. 
 
Points/Questions 
---------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) As far as post is aware, neither Turkmenistan officials 
nor media have offered any accounts that would update the 
Afghanistan-electricity status quo described above.  There have been 
periodic references to infrastructure work on the Afghan border 
actually being carried out.  Following are points/questions from 
Embassy Ashgabat's perspective for PDAS Mann's meetings with 
Turkmenistan officials: 
 
-- How much surplus capacity does Mary power station now have 
available for increased supply to Afghanistan? 
 
-- What is the ceiling of such supply given the present 
transmission-infrastructure constraints (on either side of the 
border)? 
 
-- Is Turkmenistan upgrading and constructing necessary 
infrastructure so as to expand the power network to extra 
Afghanistani towns and cities, as we understand president Niyazov 
undertook to do in the April 2006 MoU? 
 
-- What are the commercial terms for current electricity sales?  Are 
the Afghans now current in their payments? 
 
-- Does the recent announcement of forgiving Afghanistan's debt 
constitute complete forgiveness, or does more debt remain? 
 
BRUSH