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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0301/01 0861307
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O 271307Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4546
INFO RUCNSAD/SADCC COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0861
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTIONS TO PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES 
 
REF:  A) ANTANANARIVO 252 B) ANTANANARIVO 232 
 
ANTANANARI 00000301  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  With only eight days to go, Madagascar's upcoming 
constitutional referendum has failed to garner the same amount of 
enthusiasm seen in the recent presidential election.  The average 
citizen has little understanding of the proposed amendments and 
public reactions have been mixed with a poorly-organized showing by 
opposition groups.  Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials 
continue to insist the "benign" changes are intended to help the 
President run the country more efficiently.  With President 
Ravalomanana aiming for an 80 percent approval rate, the GOM's 
aggressive efforts to encourage voter participation have raised some 
controversy.  Still, the referendum is widely expected to pass.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
CAMPAIGN UNDERWAY 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) On March 20 the GOM kicked off a 15-day campaign for the 
upcoming referendum with a lackluster event at one of the 
President's MAGRO facilities in Antananarivo.  The referendum has 
failed to garner the same amount of enthusiasm - whether for or 
against - seen in the recent presidential election.  In a positive 
departure from the past, the GOM's public education efforts started 
immediately after the proposed changes were published (REF A) with 
programs on national and private radio and television.  Local NGOs 
have also been conducting civic education programs on the referendum 
at the regional and local levels.  Groups officially registered as 
"for" or "against" the referendum are guaranteed 20 minutes of free 
coverage on national public radio and television per day to 
publicize their platforms. 
 
THE GOM CLARIFIES ITS OBJECTIVES 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (SBU) In response to public criticism of the proposed amendments, 
presidential political advisor Moxe Ramandimbilahatra privately gave 
Econ/Pol Chief a rather academic clarification of the government's 
intentions.  Contrary to popular assumption, he explained the 
changes are not directly linked to the recently launched Madagascar 
Action Plan (MAP) for development; a government cannot change an 
entire body of laws just to support a particular president's 
program.  Rather, the changes will make it possible for the 
President to run the country more efficiently.  However, he 
unintentionally made a more compelling argument that the changes are 
harmless, rather than necessary. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In response to widespread criticism that the proposed 
amendments will increase the President's power, Ramandimbilahatra 
flatly disagreed.  For example, he explained that giving the 
President the power to appoint Supreme Court magistrates is less 
about decreasing the independence of the judiciary and more about 
breaking the "justice mafia" controlled by several influential 
families; he guaranteed the President will continue to be checked by 
the High Court of Justice and other bodies.  Ramandimbilahatra also 
said allowing the ratification of the Rome Statute is the 
President's idea, as, "it's about time that we comply with trends in 
international law." 
 
MIXED BUT UNINSPIRING REACTIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (U) Public reactions voiced in radio call-in programs and 
newspapers have been mixed.  While some support the changes as a 
mark of progress, others question whether they will have any impact 
on the MAP or their daily lives.  The silent majority seems to be 
indifferent due to lack of understanding over the implications of 
the changes.  Many people who voted for President Ravalomanana last 
December 3 indicate they will "automatically" back up that vote with 
a vote in favor of the referendum on April 4. 
 
¶6. (U) The opposition's response has been weak and uncoordinated due 
to competition among the groups and insufficient funds.  The 
traditional line-up of opposition groups established a "NO" 
committee comprised of 11 parties campaigning against the 
referendum, including Leader-Fanilo lead by former presidential 
candidate Herizo Razafimahaleo, the AREMA faction supporting the 
exiled Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, the newly-formed PSDUM party lead by 
former presidential candidate Jean Lahiniriko, and the CRN and UNDD 
parties lead by former President Albert Zafy.  Former presidential 
candidate Roland Ratsiraka and his TTS party are also independently 
campaigning against the referendum.  Their criticism centers around 
the strengthening role of the President, lack of debate over the new 
 
ANTANANARI 00000301  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
amendments, and the abolition of the provinces as a "backslide" in 
Madagascar's development.  Other groups, such as the Confederation 
of Workers' Unions, are also calling on people to protest an 
amendment that only guarantees the right to strike as long as they 
"do not prevent the continuation of public services or security 
needs fundamental to the nation." 
 
¶7. (U) The members comprising the traditionally outspoken FFKM, the 
powerful council of Christian Churches which normally speaks with 
one voice on major political issues, have had split reactions to the 
referendum.  Anglican churches have remained largely silent.  With 
approval from the Vatican's representative in Madagascar, Catholic 
churches have criticized the hasty organization of the referendum, 
while the church-affiliated association "Justice and Peace" has 
voiced concern over the removal of separation of church and state 
and the abolition of autonomous provinces.  The Lutherans have 
united with the Protestants of the sub-group FJKM in urging people 
to participate in the vote, but not supporting "for" or "against." 
 
PRESSURE FOR PARTICIPATION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) In order to be adopted, the referendum must be approved by 
more than 50 percent of those who show up at the polls on April 4. 
With President Ravalomanana hoping for an 80 percent approval rate, 
the GOM's efforts to encourage voter participation have raised some 
controversy. Despite a stipulation in the electoral code forbidding 
civil servants from campaigning for an "option or candidate," 
Ravalomanana publicly called on civil servants to mobilize to help 
the referendum pass.  The Prime Minister softened this position days 
later by explaining that while civil servants should not actively 
campaign, it is their duty to explain what the changes are about. 
This overstepping of boundaries seems to extend to the local level. 
Embassy staff heard some "fokontany" (neighborhood) chiefs 
threatening to penalize residents who do not attend 
locally-organized referendum information sessions or the vote itself 
on April 4. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶9. (SBU) While President Ravalomanana's proposals seem 
well-intentioned, Post is concerned the amendments to the 1992 
Constitution, whose ultimate impact is still unclear, could be 
manipulated by less well-intentioned leaders in the future.  The 
GOM's argument that these changes will make it more efficient are 
not entirely compelling; however this will only become clear as the 
GOM moves to implement them.  EU officials privately share many of 
our concerns.  With very short lead time, they fear few Malagasy 
understand what seem to be substantial changes and are not entirely 
convinced of the GOM's justification.  However, they too will 
publicly remain quiet in this internal Malagasy affair.  They 
pragmatically look forward to "getting it over with" so the 
ministers can get back to doing their jobs.  END COMMENT. 
 
PATRICK