VZCZCXRO2401
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0287/01 0811232
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221232Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4524
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0849
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
DEPT FOR EB/IFD/OMA 
TREASURY FOR FBOYE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN IMF PREL MA
SUBJECT:  IMF Finds GOM Performance Satisfactory 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000287  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  A just-completed IMF Mission reviewed five major 
themes in Madagascar:  the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP), trade 
competitiveness, institutional capacity at the Ministry of Finance 
and Central Bank, private sector reform (especially the electric 
utility), and fiscal / monetary policy.  Overall IMF Country 
Director Ames is satisfied with the GOM's performance, and major 
donors, including those providing budget support, are sanguine about 
medium term economic policies.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Slight "Dutch Disease" Effect 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) IMF Country Director Ames briefed the donors March 21 
following his dual mission to conduct an Article IV Review and a 
Second Review under Madagascar's current program.  A notable change 
in six months, Ames said, was that in the second half of 2006 
substantial investment for the Rio Tinto illmenite mining project in 
the southern city of Fort Dauphin began to hit the Malagasy economy. 
 Total expected investment over several years is USD 700 million, 
roughly 20 percent of which affects the Malagasy economy in terms of 
domestic wages and other local payments.  This shock has caused the 
Ariary to steadily appreciate between October 2006 and March 2007. 
Ames noted the Dynatech nickel and cobalt mine near Moramanga in 
central Madagascar is expected to be a USD 2.5 billion investment 
over the life of the project, starting in late 2007. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The combined effects of mining investments will maintain 
pressure on the Ariary to appreciate in the medium term, Ames 
assessed, although exports and revenue are not expected until 2009 
and 2010.  Private operators, especially Export Processing Zone 
(EPZ) apparel producers, are already concerned about declining 
competitiveness from a "dutch disease" effect.  While acknowledging 
this risk, Ames suggested that ongoing effectiveness keeping 
inflation low (near single digits in annual terms) and rapid 
productivity increases will offset currency appreciation 
disadvantages. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Further implications for Ariary appreciation include 
potentially substantial shortfalls in Customs receipts collected on 
imports in local currency and potentially cheaper foreign debt 
interest payments.  Given the appreciated Ariary rate is probably a 
permanent phenomenon, IMF and GOM economists are quantifying these 
and other impacts. 
 
2007 Budget Better, But Still Lacking 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Having consulted closely with the GOM during the process to 
draft the 2007 Budget, the IMF believes it is an improvement on 
previous years in terms of revenue and spending targets.  Still 
lacking, however, are provisions for unplanned eventualities.  For 
example, in 2007 pension payments will exceed pension receipts, thus 
funding to pay pensioners must be allocated.  Reimbursement payments 
for Value Added Tax (VAT) for EPZ companies and tax reimbursements 
to petroleum importers were underestimated for 2007.  Provisions for 
interest payments on domestic debt, depending on the funding needed 
to cover the fiscal deficit, are also likely inadequate.  The IMF is 
encouraging the GOM to cut spending temporarily until revenue 
improves later in 2007.  Plans are also underway to overhaul the tax 
system by 2008, simplifying rates to improve collection and 
facilitate new investments.  Ames concluded by noting that if GOM 
spending controls are effective and the fiscal deficit restrained 
during 2007, the IMF believes Madagascar's base interest rate -- 
currently at 18 percent or seven percent in real terms - will 
finally decline.  At present, lack of credit suffocates new 
investment with only the shortest term, highest return projects 
meeting requirements to obtain expensive credit. 
 
JIRAMA:  Fix The Electric Utility 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Turning to the long saga of Madagascar's water and electric 
utility (JIRAMA), Ames emphasized that the 10 or even seven percent 
GDP growth forecasts in the MAP are out of the question without 
permanent reform to deliver dependable and affordable electricity. 
Ames said President Ravalomanana's new cabinet is addressing many 
technical alternatives to revamp the utility in the near future; 
without which, he added, donor programs cannot succeed.  The French 
Ambassador and World Bank Country Director, both of whom have funded 
JIRAMA bail-outs, expressed cautious optimism this story will have a 
happy ending. 
 
Madagascar Action Plan 
---------------------- 
 
ANTANANARI 00000287  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Ames commented the GOM was reviewing feedback on the MAP 
and had revised downward total funding needed over five years from 
USD 11 billion to USD seven billion.  IMF and GOM economists 
continue to assess Ravalomanana's aspirations in the MAP and attempt 
to draw direct ties to the budget and to overall financing 
requirements of this ambitious development program  (Note:  The 
Embassy's current temporary Budget Resident and soon-to-arrive 
permanent Budget Resident work closely with Presidency policymakers 
responsible for the MAP.  The President's Chief of Staff Ivo told 
PolEcon Chief that advice so far has been very useful.  End Note). 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  Overall Ames' tone was upbeat and the press 
coverage the following day was relatively positive.  EU Ambassador 
Boidin told PolEcon Chief afterward that after a rocky time in the 
relationship in 2005 and 2006, the GOM appears to be collaborating 
fully with the Fund.  Other donors remain focused on the GOM's 
ability to control inflation, fund its deficit, and protect priority 
spending for health and education -- but in general express 
confidence for the remainder of 2007.  END COMMENT. 
 
PATRICK