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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR DRL - A/S LOWENKRON, EUR/CARC, EUR/SNEC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM AM
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH NGOS, 
OPPOSITION LEADERS 
 
YEREVAN 00000114  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) Visiting EUR DAS Bryza received two previews of the 
upcoming parliamentary elections on January 26.  Opposition 
leaders predicted that the May elections would be the worst 
yet in Armenia's post-Soviet history, and complained that 
U.S. and European leaders had done too little to push for 
democracy in Armenia.  Although they agreed that the 
elections would probably fall short of international 
standards and questioned the GOAM's political will for 
reaching those standards, our democracy program NGOs were 
slightly less pessimistic as they anticipated "solid, baby 
steps" forward in comparison with previous polls.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
DEMOCRACY IMPLEMENTERS EXPECT INCREMENTAL GAINS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (C) On the margins of a Minsk Group Co-Chair visit, EUR 
DAS Bryza held separate roundtables (in his bilateral 
capacity) with representatives from USAID-funded democracy 
implementing organizations and with political opposition 
leaders.  In the implementers' roundtable, representatives 
agreed that the upcoming election would most probably fall 
far short of international standards.  They agreed, however, 
that the revised Electoral Code provided a good framework 
that could in principle be the basis for well-conducted 
elections, provided the government delivered the political 
will to implement the procedures properly and in good faith. 
The new provisions represent a mixed bag of some clear "wins" 
combined with more ambiguous elements, depending on 
implementation.  For example, the GOAM included, at the 
unfortunate suggestion of the Venice Commission, mobile 
ballot boxes for the infirm (which adds vulnerabilities to 
possible ballot box stuffing).  The new code, however, limits 
the mobile boxes, use to specific hospitals to limit fraud 
opportunities.  The new code is explicit in allowing 
political party proxies and other observers to be physically 
close enough to the polling place, voters list check, and 
vote counting processes to be able to verify that voters are 
admitted and votes are tallied honestly.  Implementers told 
DAS Bryza that new safeguards to prevent multiple-voting by 
military personnel seem good, but are somewhat incomplete. 
(Septel will provide a comprehensive picture of the revised 
Electoral Code). 
 
¶3. (C) The NGO reps shared the view that, while their working 
level GOAM partners often showed real commitment to the 
electoral procedure reforms, commitment seemed less strong at 
higher levels of government.  IFES head Ched Flego noted that 
one advance benchmark of free and fair elections would be 
whether most or all seats were contested by multiple parties 
or candidates, or if anti-government candidates began to drop 
out (under pressure) as election day drew near.  While Flego 
reported on his team's work with the GOAM to help clean up 
the voters list and to train election workers on new 
electoral procedures (septel), he mentioned that his team had 
found some 470,000 names on the register of Armenians who no 
longer live in the country, but whom the authorities have no 
legal basis for removing from the list.  He cautioned that 
parties such as the ruling Republicans are aware of this 
discrepancy and may be prone to use it to their advantage 
through ballot stuffing in some areas.  Counterpart 
International chief Alex Sardar described the work his 
organization is doing to bolster civil society and to raise 
awareness for the elections.  Local NGO "It's Your Choice" 
(IYC) chair Harutyun Hambardzumyan told of his group's 
preparations to observe the elections in every polling place 
in the country, and to train their own volunteers and local 
officials and observers in the new Electoral Code. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
OPPOSITION LEADERS PREDICT GLOOM AND DOOM 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The political opposition leaders were decidedly less 
optimistic.  National Democratic Union Chairman Vazgen 
Manukyan (a former prime minister), Orinats Yerkir 
representative Mher Shahgeldyan, David Shahnazaryan of the 
Armenian National Movement (and a former national security 
minister), and Artak Zeynalyan of the Republic Party spent a 
large portion of their roundtable complaining about the 
Electoral Code, which they said was riddled with large 
 
YEREVAN 00000114  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
loopholes through which fraud could pass unfettered.  The 
politicians also expressed their concern about election 
commissions rife with corrupt officials and the opposition's 
difficulty in obtaining equal access to media, in comparison 
with pro-government parties.  They blamed the situation on a 
lack of separation of powers and political will.  Manukyan 
argued that the perception that Armenia's opposition is weak 
is unjust.  He said the political conditions do not allow for 
the development of parties, which find themselves in a 
Catch-22: unable to strengthen themselves by recruiting 
members, because the public refuses to join parties they see 
as ineffectual.  The opposition leaders also suggested that 
the United States did not take the ruling powers to task as 
much as it 
should.  Manukyan asked that the United States bring as many 
observers as possible to watch the upcoming elections, and to 
hold the GOAM accountable for fraud afterwards. 
 
¶5. (C) DAS Bryza expressed hope that the parliamentary 
elections would "reflect the dignity of the Armenian people." 
 He assured the politicians that democracy was at the top of 
the U.S. agenda in Armenia, but noted that it had to share 
the spotlight with the goals of regional stability and 
economic development.  "We have to pursue them all at the 
same time," he said, noting that democracy was a vital part 
of the package that laid a strong foundation to achieve the 
other goals.  He also said the USG would continue to impress 
upon the government the fact that violence destroys the 
perpetrator's legitimacy.  DAS Bryza also pointed out, 
without using the defense minister's name, that CDA had 
stressed to DefMin Serzh Sargsian (who also holds a senior 
Republican Party post) at a dinner January 25 the importance 
of free media. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6. (C) DAS Bryza's visit was timely, as it provided a pep 
talk for NGOs working on our Democracy Promotion Strategy. 
They are doing important work in a tough environment.  The 
meeting with the opposition was more discouraging.  With four 
months to go before elections, the opposition is still 
splintered and unable to agree on a policy agenda other than, 
"Vote for us, not for them." 
 
 
¶7. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared on this cable. 
GODFREY