VZCZCXRO6657
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0141/01 0450154
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 140154Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3874
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 4734
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA PRIORITY 0562
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0635

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000141 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV XB XV FJ NZ
SUBJECT: NZ PONDERS FUTURE FIJI, SOLOMONS POLICIES 
 
REF: A. WELLINGTON 69 
     ¶B. WELLINGTON 68 
     ¶C. 06 WELLINGTON 966 
 
Classified By: DCM David J. Keegan, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary. PM Clark strongly supports the timeline and 
processes recently discussed by Australian, New Zealand, and 
US officials to encourage Fiji's return to democracy.  The 
GNZ believes that the upcoming Pacific Island Forum (PIF) 
Eminent Person's Group report on Fiji will be key to 
determining whether the PIF can place constructive pressure 
on Fiji's interim government to improve its human rights 
record and accept a timeline for new elections.  The EPG's 
draft report is apparently quite firm, but NZ officials are 
concerned it may be toned down by senior PNG and Vanuatu 
leaders reluctant to erode Melanesian solidarity.  The GNZ 
also continues to monitor the Solomon Island's with concern, 
and believes the GOSI's dispute with the Regional Assistance 
Mission (RAMSI) may be at a critical point.  NZ officials 
worry that the simultaneous conflicts in the Solomons and 
Fiji may overwhelm the PIF and break down unity within the 
group.  End Summary 
 
¶2.  (C) PM Clark is fully on board with the approach to Fiji 
endorsed by U.S., Australian, and NZ officials during their 
recent meetings in Hawaii, Deputy Foreign Secretary Alan 
Williams told DCM and Pol-Econ Couns on February 12. 
Williams said the PM intends to retain NZ's sanctions (ref C) 
until Fiji's interim agrees to a specific timetable for a 
return to elections.  At that point, the GNZ will review 
whether to loosen up sanctions as well as consider electoral 
and other possible assistance. 
 
------------------------- 
EPG Delivers Firm Message 
------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) The DCM noted that even with a timetable for 
elections, it will be hard to make real progress without an 
improvement in Fiji's human rights situation.  Williams 
agreed, noting that the upcoming Pacific Island Forum (PIF) 
Eminent Persons Group report to PIF Foreign Ministers will 
play a key role in determining whether the group will place 
effective pressure on PM Bainimarama and his appointees.  The 
GNZ has heard that the draft report does in fact deliver a 
united, firm message on what Fiji needs to do to return to 
democracy. It calls for a suspension of the state of 
emergency, a return of the military to the barracks, the 
appointment of a civilian PM before the elections, and a 
credible date to be set for elections within 15-24 months. 
Williams attributed the strong message to the fact that that 
the PNG and Vanuatu EPG members were reportedly even more 
shocked than others in the group by the strong climate of 
fear they found in post-Coup Fiji. They apparently feel the 
Fijian Foreign Minister misled the December meeting of the 
Melanesian Spearhead group, which came out in solidarity with 
Fiji.  (Using a Kiwi expression we had not heard before, 
Williams said that they felt they had been "sold a pup.") 
But Williams acknowledged that EPG's draft may be softened if 
senior PNG and Vanuatu leaders believe the report is too 
detrimental to Melanesian Spearhead Group unity. 
 
¶4.  (C) Williams said that Bainimarama appeared very 
confident when he met with the EPG.  The Commodore put a 
statement into the EPG report noting it will be at least five 
years before Fiji can hold elections, and all sanctions must 
be removed before any balloting takes place.  Figuring out 
"how to get rid of Frank" will be key to resolving the 
situation in Fiji, Williams said.  Although Bainimarama 
claims Fiji needs at least five years to drive out corruption 
before elections can be held, in reality he is focused on 
keeping out of jail.  Fiji's statute of limitations run 
between three and five years, so Bainimarama will not be keen 
to hold elections within two years unless he has some 
guarantee of immunity.  On the other hand, a united PIF 
front, coupled with Fiji's desire to be back in the fold and 
the unfreezing of assistance, could break the impasse.  For 
this reason, Williams said, we should maintain pressure to 
get Fiji to agree to the timeline and processes discussed in 
Hawaii. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Possible NZ Assistance to Fiji Democracy Building 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  (C) Michael Green, NZ's High Commissioner in Suva, was in 
Wellington last week and met with PM Clark and Williams. 
 
WELLINGTON 00000141  002 OF 002 
 
 
Green pointed out that that there has not been a robust 
census in Fiji for at least 12-13 years.  If the interim Fiji 
government agrees to a timeline, Williams said one useful 
form of assistance might be to do a new census and advise on 
a new seat allocation for Parliament.  Over the longer term, 
it might also be helpful to provide advice on reform of 
Fiji's constitution, which currently enforces a multi-party 
system without mandating any inter-party negotiation.  This 
has increased internal conflicts and undermined public faith 
in government. 
 
----------------------------- 
Critical Juncture in Solomons 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Williams said that New Zealand continues to monitor 
the Solomon Islands with concern, as events there -- notably 
the GOSI's opposition to RAMSI -- may be reaching a critical 
juncture.  Simultaneous pressures from events in Fiji and the 
Solomons could undermine PIF coherence, he added.  Williams 
passed along "fulsome thanks" to EAP DAS Davies for having 
stressed to PM Sogavare that it is critical that the GOSI 
continue to cooperate with RAMSI. Williams added that while 
GNZ has been a bit more light-handed publicly in its approach 
to the GOSI than has Australia, they understood why Foreign 
Minister Downer felt he had no other choice but to speak out 
openly. FM Peters prefers to deliver his strong messages to 
GOSI behind closed doors, but he and other Kiwi officials 
have been coordinating exceptionally closely with their 
Australian counterparts. Now that both the Acting Police 
Commissioner and his Deputy are Kiwis, New Zealand may find 
itself forced to express its concerns more directly from now 
on, Williams added. 
McCormick