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DE RUEHTV #0357/01 0321202
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FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9164
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS KPAL IR SY
SUBJECT: LABOR'S POTENTIAL LEADERS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones.  Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: In a series of meetings with the 
Ambassador, Labor MKs Ami Ayalon, Avishai Braverman and Ophir 
Pines-Paz all aspire to lead the party following the May 28 
primaries, which they believe will end the era of Amir Peretz 
at the helm.  Ayalon and Braverman were the first to team up 
as a "security/socio-economic" duo to mount a campaign to 
challenge Peretz for the leadership of the party.  Pines-Paz, 
who resigned his ministerial portfolio to protest the 
coalition's inclusion of Yisrael Beiteinu last fall, is a 
strong solo contender, but he may join forces with former 
Prime Minister Ehud Barak.  All of these Labor rebels 
anticipate that the Winograd Committee interim report will 
further weaken PM Olmert and his Kadima Party; they believe 
the Labor primaries will serve to strengthen Labor to the 
point where it will become the dominant party in the 
coalition.  On foreign policy, all the Labor aspirants are 
focused on moving fast-forward on the Palestinian track and 
remain skeptical of Syrian political intentions despite their 
disagreement with PM Olmert's public diplomacy on that issue. 
 End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Ami Ayalon/Avishai Braverman Team Up 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) MK Ami Ayalon told the Ambassador January 23 that 
he expects the May 28 primaries to help stabilize the 
governing coalition because they would rejuvenate the Labor 
party leadership.  "Whoever becomes Labor leader will boost 
Labor's standing in the polls," Ayalon argued, adding that 
the combination of Ehud Barak, Ophir Pines-Paz, Avishai 
Braverman and Amir Peretz in the top rungs of the party will 
allow Labor to lay claim to the "huge Israeli center." 
Contrary to press reports, Ayalon claimed that he was not 
advocating early, general elections:  "General elections are 
the last resort for MKs; Kadima won't want them, and the 
Israeli people are fed up with elections."  Although he 
acknowledged the possibility that Kadima "will not 
disappear," he thought it likely that this new party would 
not last more than three or four years.  "Labor and Likud, 
with all their difficulties, are the only options." 
 
¶3.  (C) MK Avishai Braverman, for his part, told the 
Ambassador January 29 that he and Ayalon differed from the 
other Labor party contenders in their campaign to fight 
corruption and promote political reform.  He also anticipated 
that the Winograd Committee would criticize Ehud Barak's 
decisions when he was prime minister to withdraw from 
Lebanon.  He acknowledged that an Ayalon/Braverman "take 
over" of the Labor party put them at odds with the political 
establishment.  Braverman argued that "no one can lead the 
Labor Party who does not take a stand against (President) 
Katsav (for alleged rape) and against corruption."  New 
political leadership must be combined with serious political 
reform -- including more professionals in ministerial 
positions and fewer ministries and a five-year defense 
budget, in Braverman's view.   Braverman anticipated that he 
and Ayalon would face major challenges even if they win the 
Labor primaries, and said he was not sure the current 
Olmert-led government would last very long.  He commented 
that both Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud and Tzipi Livni of 
Kadima would like to see a change of government leadership -- 
without new elections. 
 
------------------------ 
Pines-Paz - Solo For Now 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) MK Pines-Paz assessed that the parliamentary strength 
of the current coalition is its paradoxical weakness.  He 
told the Ambassador January 29 that the Winograd Committee's 
interim report offers the only possible mechanism for a 
change of government absent early elections.  In any event, 
Pines-Paz said he felt certain that Amir Peretz would not 
remain Defense Minister or party leader for long -- certainly 
not after the May primaries.   In response to the 
Ambassador's question on whether Labor leaders wished to 
retain the Defense Ministry, Pines-Paz equivocated.  He 
acknowledged that many in the party thought that holding onto 
this position was not in their interest, but said he believed 
that Labor would retain the position, particularly as Ehud 
Barak "really wants it."  Pines-Paz said Ayalon was not that 
interested in the Defense portfolio, despite public opinion 
favorable to Ayalon.  As a contender for the leadership of 
the party, Pines-Paz expressed an interest in meeting USG 
officials to share his views.  (See septel for a readout on 
Pines-Paz views on the recent Madrid plus 15 conference.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Palestinian Priority and Interest in the Saudi Plan 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
TEL AVIV 00000357  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MK Ayalon updated the Ambassador on his thinking 
about Israeli-Palestinian relations.  He confided that his 
views were very much in synch with those of FM Tzipi Livni on 
the need for a political horizon.  He also stressed, in 
particular, the need for clear positions ("Constructive 
ambiguity doesn't work in the Middle East"), notably a clear 
vision of the destination of the Quartet Roadmap; an "end to 
gradualism;" an international presence to fill the vacuum in 
the Palestinian territories; and a "regional axis of 
pragmatists" to bolster the weakened Palestinian partners. 
Ayalon argued that it is to Israel's advantage to think about 
what it can do to strengthen its Palestinian partner rather 
than continue to claim that there is no partner, and he 
thought that the Arab League could be instrumental to this 
end. 
 
¶6.  (C) Ayalon criticized Amir Peretz's recently unveiled 
peace plan as one that "lacked a destination" and ignored the 
regional dimension.  In Ayalon's view, forward movement could 
be achieved in two phases:  1) declaration of two states 
followed by a cease-fire; and 2) a final status agreement in 
three-four years based on the principles that he and Sari 
Nusseibeh articulated in 2002. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) MK Braverman, just back from Davos, added that he 
thought the perception of an Israeli defeat in the second 
Lebanon War might, paradoxically, create an opportunity for a 
breakthrough with the Arab world.  Unlike other moments in 
the post-1967 period, Israeli hubris was no longer an 
obstacle, in his view.  He said that both he and Ayalon favor 
adopting the Saudi initiative as a basis for negotiations. 
 
----- 
Syria 
----- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Ayalon cautioned against leaping to take up the 
Syrian pitch for negotiations.  "To go to Syria betrays the 
pragmatists (in the Arab world)."  Still, Ayalon insisted 
that Olmert made a mistake in appearing to explain his 
rationale for not talking to the Syrians by claiming USG 
objections.  Israeli leaders must tell Syria that they are 
willing to talk about bilateral issues, such as the Golan, 
provided issues such as terror and Iran are also on the 
table.  Not quite in synch with Ayalon's tougher stance, 
Braverman underscored that Israel should appear "open for 
negotiations."  He commented that Israeli settlers on the 
Golan are open to creative options, such as long-term leasing 
arrangements, that could result from an Israeli-Syrian peace 
agreement. 
 
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