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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000110 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/16/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH KN TW
SUBJECT: POLICY PLANNING STAFFER GREEN SHANGHAI MEETINGS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Prinicpal Officer,  , U.S. 
Consulate Shanghai. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  During his meetings with Shanghai Academics on 
January 17, Policy Planning Staffer James Green engaged 
academics on East Asian security issues, including North Korea 
and Taiwan.  Academics were pessimistic that there would be any 
progress on North Korea in the near future.  Academics agreed 
that there was a need for a security mechanism in East Asia and 
welcomed the possibility of using the Six-Party Talks as a 
framework for future security discussions.  Taiwan expert, Zhang 
Nianchi, noted that the Taiwan issue seemed to have become 
marginalized and the international community was not paying much 
attention to the issue.  He said that unification was a long 
process that could not be accomplished through military means. 
End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) During his one-day trip to Shanghai, Policy Planning 
Staffer James Green met with some of Shanghai's prominent East 
Asia academics and think-tanks.  On January 17, he called on 
Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies (SIEAS) Director Zhang 
Nianchi and Deputy Director Hu Lingwei to discuss cross-Straits 
issues.  He also met with Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences 
(SASS) International Relations Theory Studies and Center for 
Korea Studies at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies 
Department Director Liu Ming to discuss North Korea and attended 
a lunch hosted by the Deputy Principal Officer on East Asia 
security issues.  At the lunch were Shanghai Institute of 
International Studies (SIIS) American Studies Department 
Director Chen Dongxiao, SIIS East Asia Securities and Arms 
Control Project Director Xia Liping, Fudan University Center for 
American Studies Deputy Director Sun Zhe, and Fudan University 
Center for American Studies Professor Ren Xiao. 
 
----------- 
North Korea 
----------- 
 
¶3.  (C) In Green's discussions with academics that took place 
before the most recent round of 6 Party Talks, the academics 
were pessimistic that North Korea would agree to give up its 
nuclear program in the short term.  SASS Liu said North Korea 
was using the U.S. security threat as an excuse.  North Korea 
believed that with nuclear weapons, it would be able to increase 
its international stature and be on par with countries like the 
United States.  While North Korea could return to the talks and 
agree to a slowing down of its nuclear program, especially if 
this led to the lifting of the financial sanctions, it would 
never completely give up the program. 
 
¶4.  (C) Academics asked whether the United States could be more 
flexible and release some of the money that was frozen by banks 
in the Banco Delta Asia affair.  Fudan University Sun Zhe said 
that the United States was sticking to its old mode of 
negotiations on the presumption that North Korea would not 
change its behavior.  However, North Korea was an unpredictable 
country and had tried to set up diplomatic relations with some 
Western countries in the past.  The United States should prepare 
for the possibility that North Korea could change its behavior. 
SIIS Xia Liping noted that Kim Jong-il was already 65 years old. 
 Kim believed that he needed to establish diplomatic relations 
with the United States to ensure that one of his sons would be 
able to succeed him.  If diplomatic relations with the United 
States were not possible, North Korea would continue to pursue a 
nuclear program. 
 
¶5.  (C) Fudan University Ren doubted that any amount of 
flexibility on the U.S. side would be enough for North Korea to 
give up its nuclear program.  Whether North Korea returns to the 
Six-Party Talks depends on whether there was a change in 
Pyongyang's perception that the United States was a hostile 
country.  North Korea's definition of a hostile action was very 
broad.  It saw everything the United States did as hostile from 
the financial sanctions to the appointment of a Special Envoy on 
North Korea.  The Six-Party Talks would likely continue to be 
off-and-on for the next few years.  On the succession issue, Ren 
doubted that Kim would live long enough to ensure that one of 
his sons succeeded him.  Kim's health was not very good and he 
would not reach his father's age of 82.  The most likely 
 
SHANGHAI 00000110  002 OF 002 
 
 
successor was the third son who was Kim's favorite son.  He was 
only in his twenties and would not be old enough to take over 
power when Kim dies.  In the next 10 to 15 years, the North 
Korean regime would have a serious problem as Kim gets older or 
becomes seriously ill. 
 
----------------------------- 
East Asia Security Mechanisms 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  Academics appeared to be open to using the Six-Party 
Talks as a security mechanism, if the North Korean issue was 
resolved.  Chen said it would be useful to have such a framework 
to discuss security issues. He added that the big question was 
how to make the Six-Party dialogue into a more regular and 
operational dialogue that would address the imbalances in the 
system.  Xia said that in Chinese academic circles there had 
been some discussion on whether there should be Five-Party talks 
on security issues.  Xia said that we should first stick to the 
Six-Party talks to see if there will be a breakthrough.  If 
there was no breakthrough, then it would be useful to have some 
forum for the parties to discuss non-security issues, such as 
energy or terrorism. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Academics downplayed the importance of the East Asia 
Summit.  According to Ren, the first East Asia Summit was not 
part of a grand design by the Chinese government.  It occurred 
as an afterthought and meant to enhance cooperation in the 
region.  He added that not much happened at the second summit 
which occurred during the ASEAN meeting in Cebu.  The only new 
issue raised during the second summit was the need for more 
cooperation on energy security issues.  Xia added that China had 
become more comfortable with multilateral mechanisms and had 
benefited from them.  He noted Premier Wen Jiaobao's speech on 
the importance of East Asian cooperation and said that the East 
Asia Summit was part of China's efforts to support cooperation 
in the region.  The East Asia Summit did not contradict the 
U.S.-supported APEC.  It complimented APEC. 
 
------ 
Taiwan 
------ 
 
¶8.  (C)  SIEAS Zhang Nianchi noted that the issue of Taiwan 
seemed to have been marginalized and the international community 
was no longer paying attention to the issue.  He said that this 
was due in part to the decline of Taiwan's economic 
competitiveness and to the mainland's Taiwan policy.  He 
stressed that reunification was a long process that required the 
integration of both sides' economy and culture.  The process 
could take at least 30 to 50 years.  Both sides would need to 
agree to unification for it to be successful and unification 
could not be achieved through military means.  During this 
period, it was understandable that there would be attempts at 
establishing Taiwan independence but these attempts must be 
reigned in. 
 
¶9.  (C) Mainland Taiwan experts had a saying that three things 
must not happen to ensure peace.  First, the United States 
should not define the status quo.  Second, China should not 
define Taiwan independence.  Third, the DPP should not define 
what it means to "love Taiwan" or "sell-out Taiwan."  As long as 
everyone sticks to the three no's, Taiwan and the mainland would 
be able to develop healthily and there would eventually be 
peaceful unification. 
 
¶10.  (C) This report was cleared by Policy Planning Staffer 
Green. 
JARRETT