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O 081531Z FEB 07
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3752
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017 
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV RS LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES SIGNING BORDER TREATY 
WITH RUSSIA; WILL RUSSIA SIGN? 
 
REF: A) RIGA 92 B) RIGA 53 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvia's parliament voted 69-26 on 
February 8 to authorize the government to sign the 
Latvia-Russia border treaty.  The legislation should become 
effective on March 5 and the Latvians have proposed a signing 
ceremony in Moscow March 6-7.  Following the February 5-6 
visit to Latvia of Yevgeny Primakov, the Latvians received 
positive indications that Russia is willing to sign, although 
they will have to rescind their previous unilateral 
declaration that scuttled the planned signing in May 2005 and 
reaffirm the Helsinki Final Act's assertion on the finality 
of Europe's borders.  The Latvians are realistic that they 
won't have 100% assurance of Russian plans until the ink is 
dry on the treaty.  There remains the possibility of a 
challenge to the treaty in the Latvian Constitutional Court 
by opposition parties, but likely only after it is signed. 
End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The Saeima on February 8 voted 69-26 to approve 
legislation to authorize the government to sign the 
long-stalled Latvian-Russian border treaty.  This was the 
second reading and as the bill was granted urgent status, it 
will go to President Vike-Freiberga for signature and 
promulgation.  Under Latvia's constitution, the earliest date 
the law can take effect is March 5 and no delays are 
expected.  On that date, the cabinet expects to authorize the 
Prime Minister to sign the treaty on behalf of the government. 
 
¶3. (C) The Latvians have told Moscow that they would be ready 
to go there on March 6-7 to sign the treaty and that they 
would like to have both PM Kalvitis and President 
Vike-Freiberga sign the treaty.  The Latvians requested that 
PM Fradkov and President Putin sign for Russia. 
 
¶4. (C/NF) The border treaty was the main topic of 
conversation in meetings of Latvian government officials with 
former Russian PM and FM Yevgeny Primakov February 5-6. 
According to MFA U/S Edgars Skuja and the PM's foreign policy 
advisor Peteris Ustubs, Primakov initially said that Russia 
would not sign the treaty unless the authorizing legislation 
referred to the agreement in the Helsinki Final Act on no 
change of borders.  The Latvians said it was too late to 
change the legislation, but agreed to include such language 
in the cabinet decision to sign the treaty.  Primakov also 
said the unilateral declaration from 2005 that scuttled the 
last planned signing would need to be withdrawn, which the 
Latvians said was already in the plan.  Ustubs said this 
would also be done at the March 5 cabinet meeting.  Following 
Primakov's return to Russia, the Russian Embassy in Riga 
conveyed that the arrangements discussed were acceptable and 
said the Latvians should save the March 6-7 dates for 
signing, but did not yet specifically commit to sign. 
According to Skuja, Primakov also said that the idea of both 
Presidents and Prime Ministers signing would be acceptable to 
Moscow.  All Latvian officials we talked to cautioned that 
with nearly a month to go before the signing, they would not 
be surprised if the Russians threw a spanner in the works and 
delayed the signing. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) The Latvian government also has a problem at home. 
Opposition party New Era (center-right) has threatened to go 
to the Constitutional Court to challenge the treaty on the 
basis that it contravenes the constitution by changing 
Latvia's 1922 borders (ref b).  To mount a challenge, New Era 
would need 20 members of parliament to sign a petition to the 
court.  New Era controls 18 seats and presumably will 
strongly pressure all its members to sign.  The other two 
signatures would have to come from members of the governing 
coalition who broke ranks with the government and voted 
against the treaty.  It is unclear whether those individuals 
would take the political risk to sign such a petition. 
Former Justice Minister and New Era MP Solvita Aboltina told 
pol/econ chief privately that they would file their challenge 
only after the treaty was signed.  But with public discussion 
of this possibility, the Latvians fear Russia could use the 
possibility of a court challenge to delay signature. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Comment: The Latvians have done their part, now the 
question is whether Russia will sign.  In fairness, the 
Latvians got themselves to this point with their unilateral 
declaration in 2005.  And while current signs from Moscow are 
good, Latvians are realistic in their dealings with Russia 
and know that they may go through several ups and downs 
before the text is actually signed.  The possibility of a 
Constitutional Court challenge has the GOL most nervous 
because it could lead to a vicious circle.  The Russians may 
refuse to sign the treaty until the Court rules on the case, 
but the Court may refuse to hear the case until the treaty is 
 
RIGA 00000100  002 OF 002 
 
 
actually signed.  The coalition can be expected to exert 
maximum pressure to ensure the needed two deputies do not 
break ranks, but if Moscow takes a hard line on this issue, 
it could stall the process. 
BAILEY