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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000403 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S MEETING'S WITH MONIQUE SALIOU AND 
NICOLAS BAVAREZ 
 
 
Classified By: Political Minster-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reason 
s 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (C) Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried met January 24 with 
Monique Saliou, European Affairs Advisor to Socialist Party 
(PS) party presidential candidate Segolene Royal and, 
separately, with Nicolas Bavarez, a leading essayist and 
political analyst regularly consulted on policy questions by 
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) presidential candidate 
Nicolas Sarkozy.  A/S Fried underlined that, whichever of 
these two leading candidates wins the presidency next spring, 
the incoming French administration will immediately face a 
range of pressing international issues, French action on 
which will require close coordination with American 
counterparts.  Saliou said she had "no news" of any upcoming 
trip to the U.S. by Royal, and indicated that a visit to the 
U.S. by Royal could well be postponed until after the 
election, should Royal win.  Bavarez underlined the 
"watershed" importance of the upcoming election for France, 
and reiterated his conviction that Sarkozy is the candidate 
best able to lead the reform of both public policies and 
public attitudes necessary for France to "accept," and so 
prosper in, the "reality of its situation" economically and 
geo-politically.  End Summary. 
 
SALIOU: RECEPTIVE TO WORKING TOGETHER 
------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (C) Saliou recognized the importance of A/S Fried's offer 
to get ready "to work together, quickly," in the event of a 
Royal victory in France's presidential election next spring. 
Saliou agreed that the urgency of the problems facing the 
international community -- from Kosovo's final status to 
Iran's nuclear weapons programs -- would remain undiminished 
next summer, as the new administration in France takes 
office.  Saliou said that, notwithstanding the difficulties 
of planning for the post-election period during the campaign, 
she and her colleagues in Royal's inner circle of advisors 
were favorably disposed -- indeed, enthusiastic -- about the 
idea of staying in touch with U.S. officials to exchange 
views on key issues. 
 
WHILE HEWING TO UNINNOVATIVE FRENCH VIEWS 
----------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (C) In her views on international issues -- resolving the 
conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, halting Iran's 
military nuclear programs, countering growing 
authoritarianism in Russia, etc. -- Saliou however, reflected 
a disappointingly conventional French outlook, both 
suspicious of U.S. motives and timid about advocating action, 
whether as France or the EU.  Saliou, in some instances, also 
seemed unsure of the substance of issues; for example, she 
did not seem to understand the preferred end-state for 
Kosovo, nor the consequences of failing to achieve it.  She 
repeated, as is so often heard from France's political elite 
of both left and right, that "U.S. pressure on Israel" is the 
missing element necessary for bringing about resolution of 
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  In addition -- and very 
much at odds with Royal's on-the-record objection to Iran's 
nuclear ambitions -- Saliou suggested that Iran's achievement 
of military nuclear capability was "inevitable," and might 
well "have to be accepted."  Saliou acknowledged that Europe 
"faced the challenge of getting organized to act effectively" 
on the world stage, but -- evidently mindful of Europe's 
energy dependency on Russia -- demurred from making any 
suggestions as to how Europe might engage in countering 
growing authoritarianism there. 
 
ROYAL'S TRIP TO U.S. UNLIKELY 
----------------------------- 
¶4.  (C) Asked by A/S Fried whether Royal would travel to the 
U.S. anytime soon, Saliou also stressed that she had "no 
news" about whether or not candidate Royal would go through 
with her often-postponed visit to the U.S.  A/S Fried 
re-iterated our willingness to do everything possible to 
arrange for appropriate meetings for Royal with 
administration officials if Royal should decide to visit. 
Saliou expressed appreciation for that on Royal's behalf, but 
noted that the exigencies of the campaign might well prevent 
any travel to the U.S. by Royal as a candidate. 
 
BAVAREZ: A WATERSHED ELECTION 
----------------------------- 
 
PARIS 00000403  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Bavarez agreed with A/S Fried that, following the 
French presidential election, there would be a window of only 
months (before the U.S. presidential election season would 
begin) for coordinating effective initiatives across a range 
of urgent issues: Kosovo, Israel-Palestine, Iran, Iraq and 
Afghanistan.  Agreeing that these international issues would 
be at the forefront of France,s attention next summer, 
Bavarez noted that, until then, the campaign would focus 
exclusively on domestic concerns. 
 
¶6.  (C) Bavarez insisted that the upcoming election was a 
critical one for France.  In Bavarez, view, further delay 
(another five years of inconsequential nipping and tucking at 
France,s sagging social model) would make it impossible for 
France "to catch up" -- modernize through controlled reform 
rather than uncontrollable social upheaval.  Bavarez 
highlighted to A/S Fried "the social crisis" looming for 
France, should the country continue to fail to integrate a 
critical mass of its large, immigrant and poor, Muslim 
population.  Bavarez drew a provocative analogy between what 
France should do to integrate its Muslim population and what 
Germany did do, successfully -- hugely expensive and 
time-consuming though it was -- integrating its "Eastern" 
population.  In Bavarez' view, East Germans were as different 
in their political culture and other social mores from West 
Germans, as France's urban, and mostly Muslim immigrants, are 
from mainstream, secular French people -- and only an equally 
expensive and far-sighted integration effort will 
successfully pull them into mainstream, contemporary France. 
 
THAT IS AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SARKOZY 
------------------------------------ 
¶7.  (C) Bavarez, who, among Sarkozy,s advisors, has most 
insistently and eloquently pushed the candidate to conceive 
of himself as the leader of watershed economic and social 
reform, reiterated his view that Sarkozy was the candidate of 
the "new generation" best able to carry through a program of 
deep reforms.  Bavarez included among these "new generation" 
candidates, Sarkozy and Royal and Francois Bayrou, of the 
centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) party.  Bavarez 
then outlined the "great difficulties" Sarkozy must overcome 
to win.  First, "normally, the left cannot lose" after twelve 
"wasted" years of the center-right in power.  Second, the 
left is more united and intent on victory than the right, 
where "Sarkozy has to face both Bayrou and Le Pen."  Third, 
Sarkozy "still has to parry attacks on him from his own 
camp."  And, last but not least, "the other side has a 
candidate who is really different," even though, of late, she 
has been "showing she is not up to the job."  Bavarez went on 
to observe that "there was a great desire for change" among 
the French, and that Sarkozy was up against the difficulty of 
pitting his "program for change" against a "candidate who is 
change." 
 
EUROPE AND SUSTAINING TURKEY'S EUROPEANIZATION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶8.  (C) Bavarez said that "solving the present paralysis of 
Europe" will figure among the top priorities facing the 
incoming French administration.  Referring to the May 2005 
referendum on the EU Constitution which was rejected by 
French voters, Bavarez said that this had "broken the 
momentum" of a political Europe able to play a leading role 
on the world stage.  A/S Fried evoked the opposing tendencies 
currently whip-sawing Turkey,s development: on the one hand, 
an insistent, popular groundswell in favor of liberal 
democracy and joining Europe (as most recently evidenced by 
the demonstrations protesting the killing of a leading 
Turkish-Armenian journalist).  And, on the other, a growing 
sense among Turks of being rejected by Europe, and being 
pushed to nurture an alternative, Islamic identity.  A/S 
Fried underlined the importance of managing the issue of 
Turkey,s accession to the EU in such a way as to keep Turkey 
aspiring to Europeanization.  Bavarez agreed on the 
potentially dangerous consequences, should Turkey "escape" 
from the orbital pull of Europe, but added that it was 
"electorally very difficult for any French presidential 
candidate to make the case for Turkey." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶9. (C) Both Saliou and Bavarez, tracking with comments from a 
range of Embassy contacts in the campaign organizations of 
Sarkozy and Royal, stressed that domestic issues -- barring a 
now unforeseen crisis -- would dominate the campaign, 
 
PARIS 00000403  003 OF 003 
 
 
notwithstanding the undiminished urgency of a range of 
international questions.  A/S Fried's message about the 
importance of getting ready now to work together smoothly 
once a new administration takes office was well-recieved by 
Saliou and Bavarez -- who said they would transmit the 
message to their respective camps.  End Comment. 
 
BIO NOTES 
--------- 
 
¶10. (C) MONIQUE SALIOU: Monique Saliou-Gloux was named 
International Affairs Advisor on the campaign team of 
Segolene Royal in November 2006.  She currently focuses on 
advising Royal on European questions.  Saliou is a career 
civil servant.  Her background includes experience with 
agricultural policy and the overseeing of a key, French 
government study of the cost and productivity of French 
public servants. 
 
¶11. (C) NICOLAS BAVAREZ: Nicolas Bavarez is an influential 
author and public intellectual who has long been a close, 
informal advisor to Nicolas Sarkozy.  Bavarez has written a 
best-selling (for that sort of book) biography of political 
philosopher Raymond Aron and has, to an extent, assumed the 
mantle of Aron as France's leading advocate for a "liberal" 
social order -- stressing individual rights and 
responsibilities in a society subjected to minimal state 
regulation.  Bavarez' most recent book, "What to Do: Agenda 
2007," is reputed to have provided the conceptualization and 
theoretical justification for key elements in Sarkozy's 
reform program. 
 
PARTICIPANTS 
------------ 
¶12.  (C) A/S Fried met with Monique Saliou accompanied by an 
Embassy notetaker. A/S Fried met with Nicolas Bavarez 
accompanied by Ambassador Stapleton, Embassy Political 
Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt and an Embassy notetaker. 
 
¶13.  (U) A/S Fried has cleared this message. 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON