VZCZCXRO1686
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHBI #0081/01 0391119
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 081119Z FEB 07
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5122
INFO RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0014
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 6289
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 1337
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 1218
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0708
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0717
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0713
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0569
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR PTER KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: SHIV SENA/BJP DEFY EXPECTATIONS, RETAIN CONTROL OF MUMBAI 
CITY GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A) MUMBAI 38;   B) MUMBAI 39;   C) MUMBAI 31 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Defying nay-sayers, the Shiv Sena/BJP alliance retained 
control of the Mumbai Municipal Corporation in the February 1 
elections (ref A).  The alliance will return to power with a 
smaller majority, however.  The result cemented Uddhav 
Thackeray's claim to succeed his aging father and Shiv Sena 
founder Bal Thackeray as leader of the regional party.  The 
results showed that the Shiv Sena still has a strong grass-roots 
following and a formidable election machine that gets out the 
vote.  The results will also likely lay to rest any expectation 
that the Shiv Sena, embroiled in a succession crisis and 
struggling to stay on message with Mumbai's evolving electorate, 
will disappear from western India's political scene any time 
soon.  Congress and NCP bickered to the end and failed to join 
forces in their effort to upend Shiv Sena/BJP, which has ruled 
the city for the past 14 years.  Many Muslim and Dalit voters 
turned away from Congress, yet attempts to create a "third 
front" failed as their protest votes were fragmented among many 
small parties.  Attempts to mobilize the middle and wealthier 
classes, who complain about the appalling state of public life 
in Mumbai yet don't vote, also failed.  As in the past, slum 
dwellers and other urban poor decided the outcome, while the 
city's better off avoided the polls.  Nobody expects the poor 
governance of India's largest city to improve much as a result 
of the elections, although the economic momentum of the city is 
so strong that Mumbai will continue to modernize rapidly despite 
the lack of good governance.  End comment. 
 
BJP/Shiv Sena Returns to Power in Mumbai 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The BJP/Shiv Sena alliance has emerged as the winner of 
the February 1 elections to the Mumbai Municipal Corporation 
elections.  The parties, which have ruled the city for the past 
14 years, won 112 of 227 seats.  The two parties will create a 
majority with the support of six independent candidates who 
pledged their allegiance after the results were published. 
Congress finished a distant second with 71 seats, and the 
National Congress Party (NCP) third with 14.  Turnout was about 
45 percent, a normal figure for the city elections.  The 
alliance also took control of Nagpur from a Congress/NCP 
coalition. 
 
¶3. (U) A closer look at the results shows that the Shiv Sena/BJP 
victory was not all that resounding.  The winning alliance has 
25 fewer seats in the corporation than in the outgoing 
government.  Congress won 25 percent of the popular vote, 
followed by Shiv Sena's 21 percent.  Together Congress and NCP 
won 36 percent, whereas the Shiv Sena/BJP alliance won just 
under 30 percent. The disconnect between votes and seats is 
largely due to the failure of Congress and NCP to put up a 
united front against the Sena-BJP alliance. Congress/NCP have a 
coalition at the state level, yet fielded individual candidates 
in the city election, splitting their vote to the advantage of 
Sena and BJP which fielded a joint candidate in each of the 
voting districts in the city.  Such discrepancies between 
popular vote and seat distribution are not uncommon in India's 
first-past-the-post parliamentary voting system. 
 
Uddhav: The Big Winner 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Shiv Sena working president Uddhav Thackeray, son and 
anointed heir to party founder Bal Thackeray, is the big winner 
in the elections.  The younger Thackeray has been routinely 
criticized, both inside and outside the Shiv Sena, as being 
detached, uncharismatic and ineffective.  His father's bedrock 
support led to the defection of many of the Sena's most talented 
leaders in recent years, including party strongman and former 
state chief minister Nayaran Rane and Thackeray's nephew Raj 
Thackeray, whom many viewed as the more deserving heir to 
succeed the aging and ailing Bal Thackeray.  During the 
campaigning, however, Uddhav Thackeray demonstrated hitherto 
unknown campaigning and organizational skills.  The result has 
solidified his hold on the party and his aspiration to be the 
 
MUMBAI 00000081  002 OF 003 
 
 
legitimate political heir to his father. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The result will also no doubt reinvigorate the Shiv 
Sena, which has been hit by a succession crisis, high level 
defections, and an evolving electorate no longer in tune with 
much of the party's anti-immigrant ideology.  Shiv Sena won the 
vote by mobilizing its core constituency of middle and lower 
class Marathi speaking voters, and by the support it received 
from Gujarati and North Indian higher caste Hindu voters who 
back the BJP and its Hindutva ideology.  By most accounts, 
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's campaigning in the city 
(ref C) did not affect the outcome although most commentators 
believed it helped the ruling alliance's efforts to reach out to 
their core constituencies.  The desertions of Raj Thackeray and 
Rane weakened the party's support far less than many observers 
had expected. 
 
Sena "Goon Squads" Get out the Vote 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Shiv Sena also resorted to its timed-test 
strong-arm tactics to get out the vote.  Mumbai Police 
Commissioner A.N. Roy told the Consul General that the party had 
placed its feared grass-roots cadre -- some observers call them 
goon squads -- "literally in every lane" to ensure that people 
went to the polls.  (Note: Their work was facilitated by the 
fact that everyone who votes in India gets an indelible ink 
marking on their right index finger, a practice aimed at 
preventing people from voting more than once. End note).  Roy 
said the police expected the worse from the Shiv Sena, as "their 
survival was at stake." An unprecedented number of officers were 
present on the streets to prevent violence.  In the end the 
elections were peaceful. 
 
Shiv Sena Bucks Anti-Incumbency Feelings 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The party managed to buck strong anti-incumbency 
feelings, as many voters view the existing city government as 
incompetent and corrupt.  Uddhav Thackeray received wide praise 
for offering a fresh slate of candidates (he denied tickets to 
52 sitting councilors of the Shiv Sena).  Thackeray cleansed the 
candidate list mainly to pay back his closest supporters, yet he 
and the Shiv Sena astutely sold the action as a move to clean up 
the corporation. 
 
Congress and NCP Bicker, And Lose 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Shortly before the election, Congress and NCP abandoned 
their intention to form a seat-sharing alliance amidst much 
public bickering.  Several contacts told us that the infighting 
caused Congress/NCP to lose the election.  In any case it 
greatly divided the opposition vote.  Both Maharashtra Chief 
Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh (Congress) and NCP President Nabab 
Malik publicly admitted that the failure to cooperate 
splintering the so-called secular or anti-Hindutva vote. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The strife between Congress and the NCP at the local 
level is not expected to translate into problems between the two 
parties at either the state or national level.  Several contacts 
have told us that tacticians on both sides were ready to 
sacrifice the Mumbai elections to higher political purposes. 
Others said the two parties saw the elections as a side show 
that has no bearing on their coalition that runs the state 
government.  Many observers believe that Deshmukh, generally 
considered to be a weak, ineffectual chief minister, fears the 
rise of Rane, who campaigned vigorously and hoped to use a 
strong Congress showing to fortify his claim to more leadership 
responsibility at the state level.  According to this logic, 
Deshmukh allowed a train wreck to happen because it weakened his 
party rival.  The NCP saw advantages to avoiding cooperation in 
Mumbai so it could battle Congress head-to-head elsewhere in the 
state. National NCP President and Union Agriculture Minister 
Sharad Pawar generally avoided the fray in Mumbai, and focused 
on helping his nephew win a seat in Pune, where the NCP upset 
Congress and became the single largest party for the first time. 
 None of our contacts believe that Pawar's position is weakened 
 
MUMBAI 00000081  003 OF 003 
 
 
because of the Mumbai vote, with some pointing to Pune, closer 
to his power base, as an example of his ability to wield 
influence in Maharashtra where and when he chooses to do so. 
 
Congress Loses Support of Many Dalits, Muslims 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶10. (SBU) Congress also lost the support of many Dalits and 
Muslims, both traditional vote banks for the party.  Voters from 
both groups had grown increasingly alienated at what they saw 
was Congress' movement away from their core interests (ref B). 
A "third front" failed to materialize because the protest vote 
was frittered away amongst a crowded slate of parties and 
candidates.  The Samajwadi Party (SP), supported by Muslims and 
the Dalit parties RPI and BSP, won fewer seats than in 2002. 
 
Jury Still Out on Raj Thackeray 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The vote marked Raj Thackeray's first foray into an 
election since forming his own party, the Maharashtra Navnirman 
Sena (MNS).  Most observers felt that his performance was 
disappointing.  He failed to lure many supporters away from the 
Sena, and his still thin leadership cadre and lack of solid 
party organization were readily visible during the campaign. 
Many voters viewed his party as a personality cult devoid of 
significant ideological substance.  Nonetheless, his party did 
win 7 seats in Mumbai and in city corporations in the key 
provincial cities of Thane, Nashik, Pune and Nagpur.   While few 
doubt his political talents, most commentators now feel that the 
jury remains out on his long term political chances. 
 
The Poor Vote As The Rich Complain and Avoid the Polls 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The media gave widespread coverage to the 
dissatisfaction among the educated middle-classes and richer 
voters and their growing desire for an city administration that 
could finally address the appalling state of public life in the 
city.  Several new NGOs tried to animate the city's well-off to 
vote.  In the end, however, it was business as usual as slum 
dwellers and the lower working classes voted while the better 
off segments of the city largely ignored the election. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The victorious alliance will return to power somewhat 
weakened, yet the election showed that the many predictions of 
Shiv Sena's demise were premature.  Uddhav Thackeray emerged as 
a serious leader who can mobilize and invigorate the party's 
large grassroots following in Mumbai and other cities of 
Maharashtra.  Nobody realistically expects Uddhav to change the 
culture of the municipal corporation, however, which has served 
as a pork barrel for the city's vote bank politics and a source 
of enrichment for corrupt politicians of all colors.  Hence it 
is unlikely that the governance of the city will improve, which 
is not good news for India's largest city and its crumbing, 
outdated infrastructure that cannot support the demand for city 
services caused by continued inward migration and by rising 
incomes.  Not all is bad for the city, however, as other bodies 
-- the state government and public agencies -- have a big say in 
the city's development.  In addition, the economic momentum of 
the city is so strong that it will continue to modernize rapidly 
despite the lack of good governance.  End comment. 
OWEN