VZCZCXRO0145
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCI #0059 0471300
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161300Z FEB 07
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1414
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1309
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0557
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0551
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0229
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0344
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0346
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0272
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 1741

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC IN
SUBJECT: SECOND PHASE OF MANIPUR ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS OFFERS NO CLEAR 
INDICATION OF CONGRESS'S PROSPECTS 
 
REF: KOLKATA 0028 
 
¶1.  (U) On February 14, three valley districts of the Northeast 
Indian state of Manipur -- Imphal West, Imphal East and 
Bishnupur -- constituting 29 constituencies out of the 60-seat 
Assembly, went to the second phase of the state Legislative 
Assembly polls.  The national-ruling Congress Party, presently 
rules the state in a coalition government, the Secular 
Progressive Front, with support from the Communist Party of 
India (CPI).  Congress has candidates in all constituencies. 
The main regional opposition party Manipur People's Party (MPP) 
has 25, the CPI 15, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 15, the 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 9, the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) 16 
and the Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPM) 1.  Despite 
heavy rains, a remarkable 85% voter turnout was recorded.  Of 
the 827 polling stations, as many as 181 were categorized as 
"hyper-sensitive" and 645 as "sensitive" for security reasons in 
the insurgency-torn state.  Special security measures were 
adopted throughout the second phase polling area and special 
police protection units patrolled the election districts.  The 
first phase was held in 19 constituencies on February 8 and the 
third and final phase will be conducted in 12 constituencies on 
February 23.  Counting of votes will take place on February 27. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) While the polling was generally peaceful, a series of 
violent incidents occurred in the run-up to the second phase. 
On February 12, a Congress worker was shot at but not injured in 
Heirangoithong and gunmen also attempted without success to kill 
a presiding officer of a polling station for allegedly 
distributing money among voters on behalf of a Congress 
candidate.  Industry minister and CPI candidate for the Kumbi 
seat, N. Mangi Singh, accused Congress workers of kidnapping one 
of his men and lodged a complaint with the chief election 
officer.  On February 9, three Central Reserve Police Force 
(CRPF) constables were among five persons killed and 10 others 
injured when United National Liberation Front (UNLF) militants 
attacked a poll party in Ukhrul district (Naga area bordering 
Burma).  In addition to the CRPF personnel, a polling official 
and a driver of state police were also killed. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The outcome of polls in the twin Imphal districts and 
Bishnupur, where the majority of the voters are Meiteis (ethnic 
Manipuris), is expected to determine which party or coalition 
will form the next government.  Contacts said that no party is 
expected to gain absolute majority, and a hung assembly is 
possible.  Congress's principal rival in the state, the regional 
MPP, advocates for greater Meitei rights, with one of its key 
agendas the repeal of the controversial Armed Forces Special 
Powers Act (AFSPA), which grants the military broad authority to 
arrest, detain and to seize property. 
 
JARDINE