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DE RUEHKG #0158/01 0321151
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P 011151Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4260
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0459
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0312
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0730
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM J7 MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000158 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN) 
 
DEPT PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SOCI EINV ENRG ECON EFIN
PTER, PHUM, KCOR, CARICOM, JM, VZ, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: LOOKING AHEAD-- WHY THE POST-ELECTION 
PERIOD MAY PROVE PIVOTAL IN BILATERAL RELATIONS 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 133 (NOTAL) 
     ¶B. 06 KINGSTON 2189 (NOTAL) 
     ¶C. KINGSTON 110 (NOTAL) 
     ¶D. KINGSTON 89 (NOTAL) 
     ¶E. 06 KINGSTON 2021 (NOTAL) 
     ¶F. 06 KINGSTON 2150 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: AMB. BRENDA L. JOHNSON, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
-------------------- 
Summary and Analysis 
-------------------- 
 
1.(C)  The national elections which Jamaica must hold within 
the next year promise to be a fiercely contested, 
down-to-the-wire affair.  Regardless of their timing or 
outcome, the months immediately thereafter may prove pivotal 
in shaping bilateral relations for years to come.  If the 
ruling People's National Party (PNP) retains power, 
charismatic Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller will have 
obtained a clear mandate to reconfigure her cabinet and chart 
her own course-- perhaps in new  directions.  Conversely, 
after seventeen years in opposition, a victory by the Jamaica 
Labour Party (JLP) would represent a sea change in the 
country's political history; a newly elected JLP Government 
would look to the U.S. for advice and assistance in a variety 
of areas. 
End Summary and Analysis. 
 
2.(C)  Throughout Jamaica in recent weeks, speculation has 
been rife as to whether: 
 
(A)  Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) might call 
national elections for February or wait until after the 
Cricket World Cup (CWC) series ending in late April (Reftel 
A); 
 
(B)  the erosion of her popular support, and steady gain in 
the approval rating of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding, will 
continue or abate (Reftel B); 
 
(C)  the upcoming campaign, which promises to be contested 
intensely, might unleash the kind of violence among 
politically-affiliated criminal elements which has marred 
previous Jamaican elections (Reftel C); 
 
(D)  Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is providing $5 ) 6 million in 
cash to fund the reelection campaign of PSM's PNP, as alleged 
by Golding (Reftel D); 
 
(E)  as he has hinted publicly, Golding will reveal further 
evidence of PNP skullduggery in the Trafigura affair (Reftel 
E) and/or other scandals; 
 
(F)  an informant from within the inner circle of the PNP is 
passing information to the JLP regarding funding from 
Trafigura, Chavez, and other embarrassing imbroglios; 
 
(G)  after seventeen years in opposition, the JLP at last may 
be poised for a return to power under Golding's highly adept, 
if uncharismatic, guidance. 
 
Post-election period to be pivotal 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.(C)  In the run-up to elections, national attention will 
focus on the hotly contested &swing8 parliamentary seats, 
most of which are in the western parishes of Hanover, 
Westmoreland, St. James, St. Elizabeth, and Trelawny. 
Clearly, an intense political struggle looms; yet, regardless 
of the timing or outcome of elections, for a number of 
reasons the months immediately thereafter are likely to prove 
pivotal in bilateral relations between Jamaica and the U.S. 
 
 
Background: PNP united outwardly, but uneasily 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.(C)  PSM became PNP Leader and Prime Minister a year ago 
following a bitterly divisive struggle to succeed the 
retiring P.J. Patterson; Minister of National Security Peter 
Phillips and Minister of Finance Omar Davies, both respected 
and seasoned figures, were her principal opponents.  To all 
outward appearances, she since has done a masterful job of 
mending fences and healing wounds within the Party. 
Nevertheless, widespread doubts persist about the true 
loyalties and ambitions of Phillips and, to a lesser degree, 
Davies, as well as the extent of PSM,s effective control of 
Government policy.  Given her populist instincts and 
carefully cultivated image as a woman of the people, many 
observers believe that, had Davies not remained Finance 
Minister, PSM would not have exercised the kind of fiscal 
restraint the Government has managed thus far. 
 
If the PNP retains power: 
PSM to chart her own course, but in which direction? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
5.(C)  If the PNP wins the elections, for the first time PSM 
will have obtained a clear mandate from the people as a whole 
to reconfigure her cabinet and shape Government policy, 
domestic and foreign, as she sees fit.  While nothing is 
certain, this could bring substantial changes.  In perhaps 
the most optimistic scenario, PSM would make only minor 
adjustments to the cabinet, with Davies and Phillips keeping 
their respective portfolios at Finance and National Security. 
 This would augur well for continued close bilateral 
cooperation in the areas of macroeconomic policy, security 
assistance, counter-narcotics, and criminal justice. 
However, the U.S. should expect PSM,s populist instincts, 
together with Jamaica's heavy debt burden (debt-to-GDP ratio 
of 133 percent), slow growth (2.7 percent), and high 
unemployment (11.3 percent), to lead to acceptance of further 
financial assistance from any quarter, in any form-- 
including Petrocaribe or cash from Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. 
In foreign policy, on a range of issues from Iraq and 
Venezuela to debt relief, deportees, trade liberalization, 
and nuclear disarmament, PSM and Foreign Minister Anthony 
Hylton may well become more outspoken in opposition to U.S. 
policies.  And of course, possible forthcoming changes in 
Cuba also could complicate U.S.-Jamaican relations in 
unforeseeable ways. 
 
The Two Key Players:  Davies and Phillips 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6.(C)  A more interesting-- and perhaps disturbing-- scenario 
would arise if PSM were to replace Phillips and/or Davies, or 
either or both were to step down. 
 
(A)  PSM appreciates the value of Davies' fourteen years, 
experience as Finance Minister and the trust he has earned in 
international financial circles by reining in inflation and 
spending; in post's estimate, she would remove him only if 
she suspected he were plotting to challenge her authority. 
However, a more serious risk was foreshadowed several months 
ago when PSM planned to raid the national social security 
fund to finance job creation projects, and Davies reportedly 
threatened to resign in protest.  On that occasion, PSM 
backed down; whether she would do so after having won 
elections is an open question.  Davies almost certainly would 
leave Finance rather than blemish his excellent record as 
Minister.  In the estimate of respected analyst Keith 
Collister, Jamaica's underlying economic fundamentals 
actually should justify a "B-plus" bond rating, and the 
current "B" rating is entirely attributable to political 
uncertainty:  if Davies continues as Finance Minister, 
international lenders and investors may reward the 
Government; conversely, his departure could prove calamitous. 
 
 
(B)  Phillips is another matter.  Bitterly disappointed by 
his loss to PSM in the struggle to succeed P.J. Patterson, he 
is suspected by many of maneuvering behind the scenes to 
undermine her authority with the aim of eventually 
supplanting her as Party Leader-- even at the cost of the 
PNP's losing the upcoming election.  If PSM remains in 
office, she may well consider Phillips expendable. 
Unfortunately, his successor almost certainly would be a 
lesser figure, and probably less trustworthy.  For years, 
Phillips has cooperated closely with the U.S., U.K., and 
Canada in anti-crime, anti-corruption, and counter-narcotics 
efforts, and is widely perceived as among the cleanest of 
Jamaica's leaders.  After seventeen years of power in a 
country in which corruption is endemic, the PNP has few, if 
any, comparable figures as possible successors; Phillips' 
departure thus would leave bilateral cooperation in the areas 
of security, anti-corruption, anti-crime, counter-narcotics, 
and counter-terrorism on a less solid footing. 
 
 
If the JLP Wins: How will the U.S. accommodate a closer 
relationship? 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
7.(C)  A JLP victory would represent a sea change in 
Jamaica's political direction.  As outlined Reftel (F), 
across a broad spectrum of issues-- from Venezuela and Cuba 
to trade liberalization, market-driven development, 
anti-corruption efforts, and Iraq-- the fundamental 
orientation of the JLP is more consonant with U.S. policies 
than that of the current Government.  In private discussions 
with DCM and Emboff, Golding and other JLP officials have 
stated that, upon taking power, they will look to the U.S. 
for advice and assistance in areas as diverse as: 
 
-- harnessing remittances to boost economic development 
-- biofuels 
-- expansion of microfinance 
-- reform, clean-up, and training/equipping of the Jamaica 
Constabulary Force (JCF) 
-- financing infrastructure development. 
 
In short, the expectations of a newly-elected JLP Government 
would be high; the U.S. might well have difficulty meeting 
them.  Washington should accommodate to the extent possible 
Golding's request for a visit (Reftel D) to discuss areas of 
potential cooperation, and begin thinking about what sort of 
response we would be able to make to a request for enhanced 
engagement by a more U.S.-oriented JLP Government, should 
that come to pass. 
JOHNSON