VZCZCXRO5452
RR RUEHGI RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0312/01 0540310
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230310Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8291
INFO RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0538
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KAMPALA 000312 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL MOPS ASEC CASC EAID UG SU
SUBJECT: UGANDA: SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL WARD (FEB 27-28) 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary: Uganda is a productive player for U.S. policy 
interests in Africa with Ugandan troops deploying to Somalia 
assisted by U.S. money, and logistics.  Uganda cooperates fully in 
the War on Terror, and is highly receptive to U.S. training and 
presence.  On the humanitarian and development side, Uganda 
vigorously supports a number of US initiatives including 
Presidential initiatives on Aids (PEPFAR) and Malaria (PMI) and U.S. 
free trade and free market Objectives. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Uganda also has a number of challenges.  Uganda's search 
for a peaceful resolution to the 21-year long conflict with the 
Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) continues, but is stalled because the 
LRA delegates refuse to return to the negotiating table in Juba, 
southern Sudan.  The Ugandan military is facing serious challenges 
as it carries out a forcible disarmament program in Karamoja, which 
has resulted in numerous deaths.  The United States is the largest 
bilateral donor for humanitarian efforts to assist the 1.5 million 
displaced persons in northern Uganda.  Museveni is facing 
significant internal pressure from within the ruling party on issues 
of succession, accountability, and human rights and media freedoms. 
Museveni supports liberal market principles and foreign investment, 
although corruption remains a problem.  Uganda recently was approved 
for the Millenium Challenge Corporation and will receive $10 million 
for anti-corruption measures.  Uganda reduced its HIV/AIDS rate from 
18 percent in 1992 to 6.4 percent in 2006 and received $170 million 
in 2006 as a focus country for the President's Emergency Plan for 
AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).  End Summary. 
 
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PEACE AND SECURITY 
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¶3. (SBU)  The security situation in northern Uganda improved 
dramatically over the past year. The insurgent Lord's Resistance 
Army (LRA) which was pushed into Congo in December 2005 agreed to 
negotiate with the Government of Uganda.  Talks began in July 2006 
and yielded a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CHA) which allowed 
combatants safe passage out of Northern Uganda to assemble in 
designated areas in Southern Sudan.  The LRA failed to assemble, 
claiming the UPDF had surrounded the areas.  There have been LRA 
attacks along key roads between Uganda and Juba, but since August 
2006, there have been none in northern Uganda.  Recent press reports 
say that the LRA's top leadership may have moved out of Garamba 
National Park to Central African Republic (CAR). 
 
¶4. (SBU) Currently, the peace talks remain stalled because the LRA 
refuses to return to Juba.  The LRA delegates--primarily members of 
the anti-Museveni diaspora--are lobbying to change the venue of 
talks to Kenya or South Africa and to replace the Government of 
Southern Sudan's Mediator, Riek Machar.  Meanwhile, the GOU's direct 
discussions between LRA leaders Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti have 
broken down.  The latest extension of the CHA expires on February 
¶28.  The leader of the Government's negotiating team, Minister of 
Internal Affairs Ruhukana Rugunda, stated on February 18, that the 
GOU will not resume hostilities.  Nonetheless, the Ugandan military 
continues to lay the groundwork for its "Plan B", a military strike 
against the LRA leadership.  However, the Government does not yet 
have permission from Congo to carry out operations there.  The GOU 
has been in contact with the government of CAR. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  In northeastern Uganda, the Government's forcible 
disarmament program has led to increasing insecurity and violence in 
Karamoja.  Humanitarian agencies report that the security situation 
in Kotido, Kaabong, and Abim districts continues to deteriorate as 
the result of armed confrontations between the UPDF and Karamojong 
warriors.  On February 13, clashes between the UPDF and Karamojong 
killed at least 52 warriors and 4 soldiers in two days of running 
battles after a series of ambushes against military convoys. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ugandan troops are set to deploy to Somalia as part of an 
African Union Peacekeeping Mission (AMISOM).  President Museveni 
during his tenure as head of IGAD oversaw the establishment of the 
Transitional Federal Government and Institutions, and committed to 
send Ugandan troops.  The Ugandans believe that a stable Somalia is 
necessary for peace and stability throughout East Africa especially 
for ending the flow of small arms into Karamoja.  Ugandan's 1500 
troops will be deployed beginning March 5 and Uganda's MG Levi 
Karahunga, a veteran of the Liberia peacekeeping mission, will be 
AMISOM's force commander. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Uganda is proud to have been part of the "coalition of the 
willing" in the fight against global terror.  Government officials 
are preoccupied with the spread of Arab fundamentalism.  They 
frequently and publicly make the distinction between Arab states, 
such as Sudan and Eritrea and black African neighbors.  Uganda is a 
predominately Christian country and promotes good relations with its 
Muslim community. 
 
 
KAMPALA 00000312  002 OF 004 
 
 
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HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
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¶8.  (SBU) The 21-year old LRA conflict displaced over 1.5 million 
people.  Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons 
(IDPs) have returned near or to their lands as the result of 
improved security.  Residents of Lango and Teso district have left 
IDP camps and those in Gulu are beginning to do so in higher 
numbers.  The Government lacks a clear, consistent message on 
returns, which has been a particular problem in Kitgum, the district 
closest to the border with Sudan. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  The improved security situation has led to a decline in 
the numbers of night commuters--children who seek sleep in shelters 
to avoid abduction from the LRA--to 2,700, according to UNICEF. 
These numbers are down from 23,885 in December 2005.  Surveys 
indicate the number of children that continue to commute do so for 
reasons other than fear of abduction, such as domestic abuse and 
availability of services. 
 
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USG ACTIVITIES 
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¶10. (SBU) Various Mission agencies are working together to enhance 
peace and security in northern Uganda through a three-pronged 
strategy of humanitarian, political, and military assistance.  Our 
overall assistance in FY06 exceeded $88 million.  The U.S. is the 
largest bilateral donor of food assistance for the 1.5 million 
displaced persons and refugees.  We provide a variety of other 
water, health, and sanitation assistance.  We support UNHCR and 
others in programs to ensure the safe and voluntary return of 
displaced persons to their homes or intermediate locations. 
 
¶11. (SBU) We have promoted reconciliation, dialogue, and 
reintegration of former combatants through USAID programs aimed at 
mitigating conflict.  Embassy officers engage with key players in 
the negotiations.  Modest amounts of Defense Department funds are 
being used to provide non-lethal assistance to help the UPDF protect 
civilians and relief supplies in northern Uganda.  CJTF-HOA is 
working on humanitarian projects with the UPDF in northern Uganda to 
improve civilian-military relations.  Post is using IMET, ACOTA, and 
ACSS programs as well as participation in regional exercises to 
enhance the professionalism of the Ugandan military.  On Somalia, 
the State Department funded the logistics of the UPDF's deployment 
while CJTF-HOA provided logisticians and members of the DAO's office 
coordinated the operation with the UPDF. 
 
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DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE 
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¶12. (SBU) One year after returning to multi-party rule, Uganda is 
experiencing growing pains.  The ruling National Resistance Movement 
(NRM) party is grappling with internal dissent among younger 
parliamentarians who resent the monopolistic behavior of the 
Movement's "historicals".   Recent internal challenges included the 
hijacking of a National Executive Council meeting to air complaints, 
succession wrangling, and a continuing battle with President 
Museveni over the provision of vehicles.  These troubles translated 
into refusal by the NRM members of Parliament to acquiesce to the 
Government's attempt to suspend parliamentary procedure to quickly 
pass the resolution to approve the Somalia mission. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Opposition parties remain weak and personality-based. 
The opposition's primary tools are press and protest because they 
are substantially outnumbered in parliament.  The opposition agreed 
to return to Parliament after walking out over the Executive 
Branch's continued defiance of a court order to release on bail 
suspected members of the People's Redemption Army (PRA) arrested 
with Museveni's principal electoral rival, FDC's Kizza Besigye. 
Another party grabbed the headlines earlier this year by demanding 
that the government act on the findings of a Scotland Yard 
investigation into the death of one of Museveni's former ministers, 
who had fallen out with the President.  Uganda's press traded 
headlines and boosted sales for weeks over the report - which said 
Kiyiira was killed by armed robbers or government soldiers.  The 
government called in the reporters and editors responsible for the 
articles, which, along with other recent actions, has had a chilling 
effect on the independent media. 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  The government's human rights record remains poor, 
particularly with respect to cases of arbitrary arrest and 
detentions and lengthy pre-trial detention.  However, the consensus 
of a wide range UN agencies, international and local NGOs, and civil 
society organizations indicates that over the past year, the UPDF 
has demonstrated marked improvement in respecting the human rights 
 
KAMPALA 00000312  003 OF 004 
 
 
of the IDPs under their protection in northern Uganda.  While abuses 
were at one time entrenched and do still happen (particularly 
involving local defense units), they can now be categorized as 
individual incidents that do not occur as result of orders from 
senior officials, and are no longer part and parcel of the 
institution. 
 
¶15.  (SBU)  The reasons for this improvement are attributable to a 
number of factors, including lowered tensions due to a reduction in 
the threat level, reassignment of the most notorious UPDF commanders 
whose units were associated with human rights abuses, increased 
international attention, and ongoing training by the USG, ICRC, and 
other organizations on international standards of human rights and 
humanitarian law.  Organizations continue to monitor abuses and are 
working through the UN's cluster approach to improve reporting 
measures.  The forcible disarmament program in Karamoja, however, 
has opened up the UPDF to new allegations of abuse. 
 
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ECONOMIC GROWTH 
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¶16.  (SBU)  President Museveni is a steadfast supporter of free 
market principles and remains committed to liberalizing the economy, 
containing inflation, and encouraging economic growth, and foreign 
investment.  Foreign debt has dropped from over USD 6 billion in 
2004 to USD 1.6 billion in 2007 through debt relief programs. 
Uganda is attempting to diversify its agriculture-based economy, 
focusing on non-traditional, high-value items such as vanilla, 
processed fish, and cut flowers.  The pace of economic growth has 
remained consistent over the last twelve with annual GDP growth 
rates between 5-6 percent.  Foreign direct investment is increasing. 
 The fastest growing sectors are construction, transportation and 
telecommunications.  Uganda's tourism industry is earning a 
significant amount of foreign exchange. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) An ongoing energy crisis, corruption and inadequate 
transport infrastructure have hampered economic development and 
investor confidence.  The energy crisis, which started in late 2005 
due to poor energy planning coupled with a significant drop in Lake 
Victoria water levels, severely decreased electricity generation 
from hydroelectric power.  Recent rains are increasing hydroelectric 
power output and new leadership in the Ministry of Energy has added 
100 megawatts of thermal generator power to help fill the power gap. 
 Uganda was approved for by the Millenium Challenge Corporation for 
a two-year $10.4 million Threshold Country Program (TCP) in Uganda 
to provide technical assistance, training and equipment to 
Government of Uganda's anti-corruption agencies and civil society 
organizations. 
 
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INVESTING IN PEOPLE 
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¶18. (SBU)  Uganda is a focus country for the President's Emergency 
Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and received $170 million in PEPFAR 
funds for the Centers for Disease Control, USAID, Peace Corps, and 
Defense and State Department programs.  The program is one of the 
largest in Africa, along with South Africa and Kenya.  Uganda's 
HIV/AIDS infection rate peaked at 18 percent in 1992 and has 
decreased to 6.4 percent in 2006.  The decline is largely the result 
of an aggressive public awareness campaign and significant donor 
support for programs that provide comprehensive prevention, 
treatment, care and support services for those infected and living 
with HIV/AIDS, orphans and vulnerable children, and pregnant 
mothers.  The Defense Department's PEPFAR program ($1,486,400) 
supports Walter Reed Army Hospital and the UPDF's efforts to provide 
comprehensive prevention, care, and treatment services to reduce HIV 
transmission among UPDF personnel, their families, and surrounding 
communities. 
 
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OUR MESSAGE 
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¶19. (SBU) U.S. efforts to mitigate the affects of the conflict in 
the north and bring about a resolution and reconciliation to the 
conflict in the north dominate our peace and security agenda.  More 
recently, the U.S. assistance for the Ugandan deployment to Somalia 
has become the focus of our attention.  Nonetheless, we continue to 
advance our interests in encouraging multi-partyism and political 
competition, economic transparency, and combating HIV/AIDS.  Our 
message to President Museveni includes: 
 
--Recognition of Museveni's efforts to bring about a peaceful 
resolution to the 21-year old conflict with the LRA.  The GOU has 
demonstrated restraint and patience during the peace talks at Juba. 
The USG supports the Juba venue and Government of South Sudan's 
 
KAMPALA 00000312  004 OF 004 
 
 
mediation efforts. 
 
--Reaffirm our commitment to working with the GOU to mitigate 
regional tensions.  We encourage Uganda to continue talking to its 
neighbors, particularly Congo, to deal with the regional aspects of 
the LRA problem. 
 
--Appreciation for Uganda's long-standing commitment to deploy to 
Somalia and the high level of professionalism demonstrated during 
the deployment preparations. 
 
--Efforts to assist the development of a democratic system, which 
includes strong civil society and democratic institutions, respect 
for human rights and rule of law, and transparency and 
accountability. 
 
--Partnership with Uganda in the war against terror.  We look 
forward to continuing to work with Uganda on the global war on 
terror and other programs of bilateral cooperation. 
BROWNING