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INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2244
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4966
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0703
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1296
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RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0994

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PTER PHUM ASEC IN
SUBJECT:  ANDHRA PRADESH:  MAOIST REVERSES ... BUT WILL THEY LAST? 
 
REF: A) 06 CHENNAI 2145 B) 06 CHENNAI 1705 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With effect from mid-January 2007, The Communist 
Party of India Maoist (CPI-Maoist), also known as Naxalites, says it 
has suspended major activities in Andhra Pradesh (AP).  The move 
comes after several months of Maoist setbacks in the state, 
including killings of several party leaders in police encounters and 
seizures of arms and ammunitions from Maoist camps.  Media reports 
further claim Maoist leaders are planning to transform the banned 
grouping into a non-violent, mainstream people's organization to 
oppose the policies of AP's ruling Congress government.  Despite 
these developments, the recent seizures of Maoist arms and documents 
also point to the possibility that the Maoists continue to plan to 
raise a guerilla army.  While Andhra Pradesh, for long the part of 
the Naxalite heartland, saw a downturn of Maoist violence in 2006, 
some level of clashes are likely to continue between the rebels and 
state police. 
 
UPING THE ANTE ON ANTI-MAOIST OPERATIONS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In recent years, the Andhra Pradesh (AP) police have 
enjoyed considerable success against the Maoists, successfully 
pinpointing the movements of Maoist dalams (armed squads) and 
thereby dramatically reducing incidents of Maoist violence.  The 
number of civilians killed by Maoists (as estimated by the police) 
dropped from 211 in 2005 to 42 in 2006.  In 2005 approximately 601 
Maoists surrendered, about 269 did so in 2006.  Combing operations 
and encounter killings resulted in about 124 Maoists killed by 
police in 2005, as compared to an estimated 110 in 2006.  The 
aborted peace negotiations of May 2004, followed by the January 2005 
announcement by the Maoists that they would withdraw from peace 
talks gave impetus to Congress Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy 
to use a two-pronged approach to tackle the Maoists.  Reddy declared 
the strategy would include implementation of development programs in 
Maoist-affected districts to wean away potential recruits, combined 
with strict law and order enforcement to check violence.  The later 
has already shown demonstrable results and enabled the police, with 
the help of intelligence inputs from across the state and country, 
to fight the rebels.  Weakening of the Maoist cadre is especially 
credited to the intensive combing operations in the Nallamalla 
forest area spanning five districts by the Greyhounds, an elite 
security team devoted to anti-Maoist operations.  Post's 
interlocutors also credit state law enforcement with avoiding large 
scale violent situations through preemptive actions to force 
surrenders and to kill alleged Maoist attackers. 
 
¶3. (U) In recent months, seizures of arms and arrests of important 
Maoist leaders have further weakened the party cadre.  Last 
December, Anantapur district police seized a large number of rockets 
and mines from four Maoist camps.  Earlier, in October 2006 in 
Vijayawada city, police recovered landmines which supposedly were 
being taken to the rebel hideouts in the forest areas.  Last 
September, AP police conducted a massive seizure of hundreds of 
Chennai-made rocket shells and dozens of rocket launchers from the 
warehouses of a transport company in the Mahabubnagar and Prakasam 
districts (ref A).  Working with the Tamil Nadu police to undercover 
the arms supplying network, AP state police on October 17 arrested a 
Maoist couple wanted for their involvement in inter-state weapons 
manufacturing and transport.  In this major blow to the Maoists, 
Raghu (alias Srinivasa Reddy and alias Madhu) and his wife, 
Sudharani (alias Sridevi), surrendered to AP police in Warangal 
district. 
 
¶4. (U) Last November, police killed top Maoist leader Obluesh, a 
state committee member, and eight other Maoists in the Gopavaram 
forests of Kadapa district.  Obulesh was reportedly in line to take 
over as the next CPI-Maoist state committee secretary.  Also slain 
in the encounter were his wife Prasanthi, who was Guntur district 
secretary, and Mallikarjuna, Anantapur district secretary.  Later, 
 
SIPDIS 
on November 24, another top Maoist leader was killed in East 
Godavari district near the Vishakhapatnam border.  Continuing with 
last year's successful arrests of Maoist guerillas, police 
apprehension a person in Khammam led to a bust of two weapon making 
units in Rourkela (Orissa) and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh) and the 
arrest of 13 Maoists rebels on January 11.  An earlier arrest on 
January 9 of two important CPI-Maoist Central (national) Committee 
members in Bhadrachalam district in Andhra Pradesh was a major 
breakthrough and provided substantial information about the Maoist 
insurgency in India. 
 
MAOIST TRANSFORMATION - MYTH OR REALITY? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Human Rights Forum lawyer K. Balagopal confirmed media 
 
CHENNAI 00000083  002 OF 002 
 
 
reports that the CPI-Maoist leadership is considering new strategies 
in an attempt to strengthen their following in Andhra Pradesh.  He 
explains that "unlike Chhattisgarh where the focus was on mass 
killings, Andhra Pradesh violence, so far, was targeted but not 
powerful enough."  Balagopal previously filed cases for the Maoists 
against the state, and he is still in close contact with the group's 
leadership.  He says the leadership told him that due to their 
weakened base, they are discussing non-violent strategies to 
transform the banned organization into a mainstream political party. 
 While the Maoist movement traditionally has claimed to seek an end 
to the exploitation of poor and landless farmers, the new grouping 
would go further by raising issues of a separate Telangana area, 
tribal displacement at project sites, and land acquisition for 
special economic zones (SEZs).  Even Balagopal, however, questions 
whether or not the Maoists' truly plan to give up violence as a 
tactic. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh Police Intelligence Chief Arvinda Rao 
confirms that the rebels are on the run and growing weaker, but he 
disagrees with the view they plan to reform into a normal political 
party.  Rather, Rao maintains that confiscated of CPI-Maoist 
documents reveal plans to create a guerilla army.  Referencing the 
recent seizures of arms and ammunition, Rao emphasizes that "in 
fact, (Maoist) attainment of self-sufficiency by manufacturing and 
owning arms and ammunitions is a cause of concern for us."  The 
state police also have reasons to believe the Maoists are recruiting 
new cadre for their underground movement.  Nevertheless, Rao told us 
that Maoist attacks on vital installations or business 
establishments AP are unlikely in the near future given the weakened 
condition of the party. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Andhra Pradesh's strict, sometimes heavy handed 
law-and-order approach has destabilized the Maoist insurgency and 
forced their activities to move into the bordering states of 
Chhatisgarh and Orissa, as well as Jharkhand.  AP police estimate 
that the overall strength of the Maoist armed cadres in the state 
has been reduced from the previous 1,000 to about 450.  This is 
quite significant given the fact that Maoist violence in AP has 
claimed more than 6,000 lives since 1967.  As the Maoists struggle 
to revive their membership -- whether by advocating violence or a 
civic approach -- the Greyhounds and state police intend to remain 
vigilant to counter and comprehensively root out their presence. 
Given the state's history of cyclical Naxalite violence followed by 
law enforcement gaining the upper hand, the counter-insurgency and 
violence are likely to continue - though at a lower level compared 
to years past. 
 
HOPPER