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S E C R E T CAIRO 000517 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017 
TAGS: PREL PARM ENRG KNNP EG IR NK
SUBJECT: U/S JOSEPH AND EGYPTIAN MINISTER FOR FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS DISCUSS NUCLEAR ISSUES, IRAN 
 
Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (S) SUMMARY:  U/S Joseph met with Egyptian Foreign 
Minister Aboul Gheit on February 3.  He was accompanied by 
A/S Rood, Ambassador, DOE-NNSA Deputy Administrator Will 
Tobey, T Senior Advisor Jim Timbie, and econ counselor 
(notetaker). U/S Joseph described his recent discussions in 
Moscow, including the initiative to combat nuclear terrorism, 
and urged Egyptian participation.  He also mentioned a second 
initiative to provide access to fuel for countries 
considering nuclear power that would obviate any need to 
acquire fuel enrichment and processing technology.  Aboul 
Gheit said Egypt has not made a final decision about nuclear 
energy but asked for a detailed paper about the U.S. 
proposal.  The minister stressed that the behavior of 
countries surrounding Egypt and "the Iranian situation" will 
"frame our decision" on nuclear energy.  Aboul Gheit asked 
about North Korean and Russian behavior toward Iran and 
missile defense.  On Iran, Aboul Gheit believes Tehran is 
determined "to pursue the process to the end," adding that 
they would "not have gone to all this trouble in 
confrontation with everyone, unless they were determined to 
go through with it."  U/S Joseph raised the question of 
recent Egyptian Section 3 violations; Aboul Gheit advised 
that the issue was best dealt with in military channels.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) U/S Joseph met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul 
Gheit on February 3.  He was accompanied by A/S Rood, 
Ambassador, DOE-NNSA Deputy Administrator Will Tobey, T 
Senior Advisor Jim Timbie, and econ counselor (notetaker). 
U/S Joseph opened by saying that the U.S. would like to see 
the use of nuclear power expanded beyond industrialized 
countries and China and India, to developing nations like 
Egypt.  He described his discussions in Moscow, including the 
initiative to combat nuclear terrorism, in which thirteen 
countries are now participating.  He described it as similar 
in structure to the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). 
Participating countries will commit to taking certain 
measures against nuclear terrorism.  U/S Joseph explained 
that there will be a meeting of participating countries in 
Turkey in February, after which the group will open up to 
wider international participation.  He urged Egypt to 
consider participating in the initiative.  About Gheit asked 
about the other members, but did not comment on the prospect 
of Egyptian participation. 
 
Nuclear Energy Initiative 
------------------------- 
¶3. (C) U/S Joseph then described a second initiative, which 
we are working with the Russians, to support an expansion of 
the use of nuclear energy worldwide.  He said the U.S. and 
Russia will eventually work with other major nuclear energy 
states to put this together, and are talking to countries 
that currently play a role in the fuel cycle:  uranium 
production, enrichment, fuel processing, etc.  The goal is to 
help countries considering nuclear power acquire reactors, as 
well provide access to an attractive fuel supply arrangement 
that would obviate any need to acquire fuel enrichment and 
processing technology.  Beyond that, he told Aboul Gheit, 
Russian President Putin is creating a fuel center in Russia 
open to participation by other states.   This might include 
fuel leasing, and takeback of spent fuel for use in advanced 
reactors. 
 
¶4. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about USG arrangements for spent 
fuel, and U/S Joseph explained the ongoing development of a 
storage site at Yucca Mountain, acknowledging that this 
remained an open issue for the U.S.  Problems in implementing 
the Yucca Mountain program were an impetus for the GNEP 
initiative.  While GNEP is the future, given the predicted 
expansion of nuclear energy worldwide, the U.S. has decided 
to work with Russia and other suppliers on a near-term 
solution.  U/S Joseph explained the proposed fuel supply 
arrangement would support increased use of nuclear energy, 
thereby improving the international energy situation, and 
providing environmental benefits.  It would also reduce the 
risk of proliferation by stopping the spread of enrichment 
and processing technology.  Countries would be offered an 
attractive alternative, so they would have no need to acquire 
fuel cycle technology themselves. In his presentation, U/S 
Joseph underlined that the U.S. hopes Egypt will play a 
regional leadership role in encouraging and promoting 
widespread acceptance of this proposed fuel supply 
arrangement. 
 
¶5. (C) Aboul Gheit said he appreciated this, but added that 
 
 
Egypt could not have a response until they make their own 
decisions about nuclear energy.  In that context, he also 
cautioned that Egypt has not yet finally decided to go ahead 
with nuclear energy.  The minister explained that a 
Berlin-based Egyptian scientist, who has worked in the German 
nuclear industry for many years, has made a strong case 
against Egypt's proposed nuclear power program.  This 
scientist, he said, predicts a significant increase in 
nuclear production worldwide, projects that the supply of 
uranium will run out in forty years, and says that Egypt will 
not recover its nuclear investment before the supply runs 
out.  In the meantime, Aboul Gheit asked for a detailed paper 
about the proposal that he can use in internal GOE 
discussions.  U/S Joseph said that at this point there is 
nothing in writing that can be shared, but that the USG hoped 
to consult with Egypt while the proposal is still in the 
formative state. 
 
¶6. (C) The other factor in Egypt's thinking on nuclear 
energy, Aboul Gheit said, is the behavior of countries 
surrounding Egypt, and "how the Iranian situation will end." 
This, he said, will "frame our decision" on nuclear energy. 
Alluding to recent opposition calls in the Parliament for 
Egypt to begin a nuclear weapons program, Aboul Gheit said 
Egypt would "absolutely" be a peaceful nuclear power "unless 
I am threatened by more than one player in the region."  If 
everyone else is going to be "macho," he said, then "we will 
have to be macho."  "But that is not our intention, nor our 
desire.  No one wants to waste the resources for things that 
will never be used."  But, he added, "we have to neutralize 
the region.  Please help me not to find myself squeezed in a 
corner." 
 
Japan and North Korea 
--------------------- 
¶7. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about the status of discussions with 
North Korea.  U/S Joseph described North Korea as a danger, 
but not as complex and dangerous as Iran.  He noted, however, 
that if the international community fails in North Korea, 
then it may affect Japan's thinking on its nuclear program, 
which would be a major strategic change in that region.  U/S 
Joseph said that on her most recent visit to Japan, the 
Secretary publicly reaffirmed U.S. security and nuclear 
 
SIPDIS 
guarantees for Japan.  This, he said, appears to have had a 
positive effect on the domestic debate over nuclear weapons 
in Japan, and noted the Chinese thanked the Secretary for her 
comments. 
 
¶8. (C) U/S Joseph underlined the importance of the full and 
effective implementation of UNSCR 1718 on North Korea.  Aboul 
Gheit asked about the likelihood of a second series of North 
Korean nuclear tests; U/S Joseph replied the US has not seen 
any indications that there will be more tests, but that there 
is no way to know for certain what the North Koreans will do. 
 He predicted progress at the next round of the six party 
talks, due to the effectiveness to date of the implementation 
of the 1718 sanctions.  This, U/S Joseph observed, is why it 
is so important to impose consequences on Iran for its 
actions.  He emphasized that if Iran fully suspends its 
enrichment program, the U.S. will participate in future 
talks. 
 
Iran 
---- 
¶9. (C) Aboul Gheit asked U/S Joseph about Russian behavior 
towards Iran.  U/S Joseph responded that Russia would 
continue to act in what it saw as its national interest, and 
that it is important to make clear that Iran must not acquire 
nuclear weapons.  Right now, he said, Iran is "our greatest 
strategic challenge."  U/S Joseph expressed his concern about 
the visit of the NAM troika, including Egypt's IAEA 
Ambassador Ramzi, to Tehran, cautioned that the Iranians 
would try to manipulate the visitors, and that he hoped the 
ambassador would not participate in any ceremonies or sign 
any documents.  Aboul Gheit assured him that Ramzy would not. 
 Aboul Gheit underlined that "we do not want to see nuclear 
weapons in Iran," as it would add to an already very 
complicated situation. 
 
¶10. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about IAEA Secretary General 
ElBaradei's proposal; U/S Joseph responded that the UNSC 
resolution calls for full and verifiable suspension of their 
enrichment activity.  "If they don't suspend," he commented, 
"and there is no reason to believe that they will, we must 
think about ratcheting up the pressure so that diplomacy will 
work."  Aboul Gheit said "embassies" (NFI) in Tehran are 
saying that the upper echelon of the mullahs is not happy 
 
with Ahmedinejad, and that the results of recent local 
elections have affected his ability to maneuver.  In Aboul 
Gheit's view Tehran is determined "to pursue the process to 
the end."  He believed the Iranian goal is to obtain the full 
potential to become a nuclear state, and that they would aim 
to be in a position to have nuclear weapons within nine 
months.  He argued that they would "not have gone to all this 
trouble in confrontation with everyone, unless they were 
determined to go through with it."  Aboul Gheit suggested 
Ahmedinejad is a "stupid guy" whom the mullahs see as acting 
in a way that is harming Iran and their nuclear project.  In 
Aboul Gheit's view, their criticism of Ahmedinejad is based 
on his "clumsiness" in managing the situation, and not the 
nuclear program itself. 
 
¶11. (C) Aboul Gheit also mentioned missile defense.  U/S 
Joseph explained that the goal of the U.S. program is to 
defend against an attack with a handful of missiles, not 
hundreds, and in that context it was not aimed at the 
Russians, but at other actors, including, for example, Iran. 
He described Russian concerns as based on Cold War-era 
thinking.  Interceptors in Poland, for example, would counter 
a few missiles from Iran, but not the hundreds that the 
Russians still have deployed under the terms of the Treaty of 
Moscow.  He noted that there are reports that Iran is working 
on a long range missile, with a 2500 km range, with North 
Korea. 
 
Section Three Violations 
------------------------ 
¶12. (S/NF) U/S Joseph raised the question of Egypt's recent 
Section (3) violation, and the notification the 
Administration has made to Congress. He commented that these 
notifications must take place when there has been a 
"substantial end-use violation."  He said there have been 
several recent cases in Egypt, and noted particularly the 
Bodyguard testing issue.  He described USG concerns as 
important, and said the incident "will affect the 
Congressional debate" over military assistance to Egypt.  He 
emphasized that the USG needs the test information we have 
requested, and that "we need to work together" on this issue. 
 
 
¶13. (S) Aboul Gheit responded that he understood the issue 
has been discussed between the U.S. and Egyptian military 
establishments.  He cited the letter that Minister of Defense 
Field Marshall Tantawi sent, and described it as "an answer 
to the issue."  He suggested that the way forward would be 
for the two militaries to "get in touch."  Aboul Gheit 
advised the U.S. side to "sit with the Egyptian military and 
explain to them all the details of the arrangements and 
understandings that we are committed to and that we are bound 
to so that we do not annoy you."  He pointed to the long 
history of the program, and Tantawi's equally long 
involvement in it. 
RICCIARDONE