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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PINR BY SA
SUBJECT: BURUNDI: IS RADJABU'S POLITICAL FATE HANGING IN 
THE BALANCE? 
 
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 32 
     ¶B. PRETORIA 254 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D.) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: The power struggle between Burundian 
strongman Hussein Radjabu and the country's President 
continues to dominate headlines, as government journalists 
report that the President's office has barred one of his 
key allies, Communications Minister Ramadhan Karenga, from 
entering government radio and television studios.  The 
South African Embassy denied that Radjabu had requested 
asylum in South Africa, but its diplomats provided few 
specifics of its discussions with Radjabu during his 
overnight stay in the South African Embassy.  The 
CNDD-FDD's spokesperson suggested that the party might seek 
to advance the date of its upcoming party conference; 
observers are divided on whether Radjabu can maintain 
control of the party.  Some observers, and CNDD-FDD members 
themselves, have suggested that many believe that the 
party's continued unity, and indeed its survival, is key to 
Burundi's continued stability; this concern may cause many 
to continue to support Radjabu, albeit grudgingly, rather 
than risk a period of political instability.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) A day after he left the South African Embassy, 
ruling CNDD-FDD party head Hussein Radjabu is coming under 
increasing pressure in political circles.  CNDD-FDD 
spokesperson Evariste Nsabiyumva, who is also the head of 
the party's  group of Parliamentarians, told journalists in 
January 23 that the party's planned extraordinary session, 
now planned for February 24, could be changed to an earlier 
date.  Radjabu has advocated holding the conference as 
scheduled.  An advisor to the First Vice President's office 
told an Embassy staffer privately that the session could be 
held as early as February 3 or 4.  Nsabiyumva also told 
reporters that, although a few members of the party had 
petitioned President Nkurunziza to act as a mediator 
between CNDD-FDD members, he did not believe that the 
opinions of those members would alter the party's 
objectives. 
 
¶3.  (U) Radjabu, who has come under increasing criticism 
from party members, gave an interview to journalists at the 
government-owned Burundian National Radio and Television 
(RTNB), according to reporters there.  However, the 
journalists told another Embassy staffer, himself a former 
journalist, that the President's office ordered RTNB not to 
broadcast any statements from Radjabu.  The RTNB 
journalists added that the President's office also ordered 
them not to allow Minister of Communications Ramadhan 
Karenga, a Radjabu ally, onto the RTNB compound. 
 
Radjabu's Sojourn at the Embassy 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The South African Charge, Zabantu Ngcobo (protect), 
confirmed on January 23 that Radjabu did not ask South 
Africa for asylum during his overnight stay at South 
Africa's Embassy in Bujumbura on January 22.  The Charge 
indicated that Radjabu contacted the Embassy on the morning 
of January 22, saying that he wished to provide the Charge 
a briefing of political developments.  Radjabu and an 
advisor arrived at the Embassy shortly before noon; 
Minister of Communications Karenga joined him later. 
Radjabu talked for several hours, but the Charge 
characterized much of what he said as non-substantive.  The 
session continued so long, said the Charge, that she 
eventually ordered out for sandwiches for the group. 
(Comment: Ms. Ngcobo, a close Embassy contact who is 
normally very forthcoming, carefully avoided providing any 
details of Radjabu's commentary, nor did she confirm 
whether he had made any specific requests for assistance. 
Her unusual reticence suggests that South Africa is still 
developing its own position on the Burundian political 
crisis, and may be reviewing what if anything it can do to 
influence the situation.  End Comment.) 
 
¶5.  (U) Finally, continued Ms. Ngcobo, Radjabu and his 
party prepared to leave, but as they were preparing to 
enter their vehicles, Radjabu received a flurry of 
telephone calls.  He told Ms. Ngcobo that he had just 
learned of a change in his bodyguards, and that he feared 
for his personal safety.  He then reentered the Embassy, 
along with one of his advisors,  and announced that he 
could not depart until he received guarantees of security. 
 
 
¶6.  (C) The Charge likened Radjabu's mood, and that of his 
colleagues, to that commonly found at a traditional African 
wake, a very somber occasion at which typically little 
conversation takes place.  Radjabu and his advisor remained 
together in one room, speaking little, rarely even looking 
at one another.  She periodically joined them in their 
vigil, sometimes exchanging pleasantries but rarely 
communicating directly with her guests.  Radjabu and his 
colleague turned in early, at about nine o'clock, sleeping 
on mattresses which Embassy staffers provided. 
 
¶7.  (C) Following a telephone call providing assurances for 
his personal safety, Radjabu left the Embassy on Tuesday 
morning, January 23, saying that he planned to return to 
his home.  The Charge did not indicate whether her 
government had intervened either with the Burundian 
government or with Radjabu himself to effect his departure. 
 
What Next? 
---------- 
 
¶8. (C) South Africa's Charge opined that, although many of 
the party's rank and file fervently oppose Radjabu and his 
policies, many of the party's leadership remain 
supportive.  Radjabu's ability to retain his position, she 
suggested, will depend on whether party members will turn 
out en masse to vote during the party conference.  Ms. 
Ngcobo believed that senior leadership would seek to exert 
strong pressure on less senior members to vote for Radjabu, 
or simply to not vote at all.  Similarly, she believed that 
National Assembly Speaker Immaculee Nahayo would support 
Radjabu, despite allegations that he may have been 
complicit in her late husband's sudden death. 
 
Neighbors Watch with Concern 
---------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Uganda's Ambassador to Burundi, in a visit with the 
Ambassador on January 24, indicated that following a call 
from Congolese president Kabila, his President had called 
President Nkurunziza to express concern about events in 
Burundi and their possible impact on regional stability. 
In response, Nkurunziza characterized the events as a 
political crisis, but one that his government could 
successfully manage without a return to violence. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C) As rumors about Radjabu's political future 
continue to swirl around the capital, opinion is divided as 
to whether he can retain a leadership position in the 
party.  Speaker Nahayo's apparent, although perhaps 
grudging, support of Radjabu appears incongruous, but it 
underscores a principle which many in Burundian government 
have repeatedly emphasized, even prior to this latest 
crisis: the CNDD-FDD party as a whole is greater than the 
sum of its parts.  In this country where the lines between 
the government and the ruling party are often blurred, many 
CNDD-FDD members believe that, should the party solidarity 
begin to unravel, the government -- and Burundi's nascent 
democracy -- could do so as well.  Accordingly, in an 
effort to ensure continued stability, the party's leaders 
may be willing to accept certain differences in order to 
maintain a united front. End Comment. 
 
MOLLER