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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000282 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2012 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: CANDID IN CAMERA: FIDESZ FACTION LEADER NAVRACSICS 
ON OPPONENTS IN AND OUT OF THE PARTY 
 
REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 AND PREVIOUS B) 06 BUDAPEST 2229 
 
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: FIDESZ Parliamentary Faction Leader Tibor 
Navracsics outlined his ongoing efforts to shift the party's 
focus from politics to policies in a meeting with Ambassador 
Foley February 23.  Navracsics downplayed the prospects for 
"fireworks" initiated by FIDESZ on March 15, detailed the 
emerging factions within his own party, and shared his candid 
assessment of the "reform communist" MSZP leadership.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) In a private meeting with Ambassador Foley, an 
expansive and thoughtful Navracsics minimized the chances of 
violence on March 15 (ref a), stating that any "excitement" 
would be "started by the authorities."  He added that FIDESZ 
is planning to have its rally in the evening, in part to 
avoid any conflict with government-sponsored events.  In 
subsequent public statements, Navracsics indicated that 
FIDESZ officials might even attend the official ceremonies. 
 
FROM ELECTORAL WALK-OVER TO PARLIAMENTARY WALK-OUT 
 
¶3.  (C) Reviewing his nearly one year as parliamentary 
faction leader, Navracsics confided that he had found the 
party "defeated in mind and in spirit" after last year's 
parliamentary elections.  Although the overall picture 
remains "somber and tense," he is positive regarding the 
progress made in moving the party's focus from politics to 
policy.  He conceded that the present political gridlock is 
likely to remain, however, noting that "the government can 
use its majority to have its own way and the opposition sees 
no reason to ease the government's burden."  He predicted 
that the current "excommunication" policy of walking out on 
PM Gyurcsany's speeches in Parliament ("and then walking 
right back in") will continue, but explained that the 
practice was "more symbolic than practical" in its impact and 
is "the least disruptive step we could have taken." 
 
WHO'S WHO IN FIDESZ 
 
¶4.  (C) Analyzing his own party, Navracsics described 
FIDESZ's evolution from a small cadre from the same 
generation to a broader spectrum of membership.  He cited MP 
Laszlo Kover as an example of the party's more "radical" 
members and MPs Mihaly Varga and Zoltan Pokorni as 
"moderates," though he sees Pokorni as "fading."  Orban, he 
concluded, is "shifting ... as always."  When asked about the 
party's process of identifying and promoting talent from the 
local to the national level, Navracsics described popular 
Debrecen Mayor Lajos Kosa and Budapest District V Mayor Antal 
Rogan as "local heroes," noting that they are not "new faces" 
but had focused on local governance to date.  He sees no 
reason why "Kosa couldn't be Prime Minister one day." 
 
¶5.  (C) Navracsics described a simple party structure with 
"limited spin doctors."  He said the party's executive 
committee, including himself, Pokorni, Varga, and Kosa, 
strove for consensus but recognized diverse views.  He 
demurred regarding his own future, commenting that "I can 
stay if I want to," but noting that he would not need to make 
a decision until the summer. 
 
KNOWING YOUR ENEMY 
 
¶6.  (C) Turning to the other parties, Navracsics saw the 
upcoming race for the SZDSZ presidency as a battle "between 
the party's head (Economy Minister Janos Koka) and its soul 
(MP - and former FIDESZ member - Gabor Fodor)."  Koka, he 
continued, would make the SZDSZ "the business branch of the 
MSZP" and blur any distinction between the parties, while the 
more passionate and doctrinaire Fodor is "a good guy ... but 
not a doer." 
 
¶7.  (C) Surveying the MSZP, Navracsics readily conceded that 
the Gyurcsany government "appears stable."  Although the 
majority could "reconsider" its support for the PM, 
Navracsics believes the elections of 2010 are the "realistic" 
focal point for FIDESZ's efforts.  Not that the opposition 
will mute its criticism in the meantime: Navracsics described 
the MSZP as "Bolshevik in its organization culture" and in 
its practice of "always asking the public for more time for 
its policies to achieve success."  Even many in the MSZP's 
"new generation," he added, focus solely on controlling the 
bureaucracy rather than mastering the issues.  Of the most 
frequently discussed alternatives to Gyurcsany, Navracsics 
described Defense Minister Imre Szekeres as the "master 
apparatchik," Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Peter Kiss 
as an "ideologue" and an "eternal candidate," and 
 
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Parliamentary Speaker Katalin Szili as "the most popular." 
 
¶8.  (C) As for the independent opposition MDF, Navracsics 
ruefully remarked that he would "like them as a coalition 
partner" but that personal conflict with party leader Ibolya 
David makes rapprochement unlikely.  He believes that the 
MDF's official line of "neither Orban nor Gyurcsany" will be 
sustainable and that the party will have to "get off the 
fence" before the next elections.  As far as he is concerned, 
"the door to a coalition remains open." 
 
THE UPHILL BATTLE 
 
¶9.  (C) In a brief reference to the potential referenda on 
various aspects of the government's reform package (ref b), 
Navracsics minimized their chance of success, commenting "7 
questions are just too many."  He expressed greater 
confidence in longer-term efforts to build a "new majority" 
of those who had been disappointed by the Gyurcsany 
government's policies.  His optimism is tempered, however, by 
the realization that "the people and the press are still more 
interested in who refused to shake who's hand" than in the 
substance of policy. 
 
MILES TO GO 
 
¶10.  (C) Comment: Rising to his present position largely 
through his role as a policy advisor, Navracsics is a 
relative newcomer to Parliament.  As FIDESZ faction leader, 
his formal interventions articulating the party's hard line 
often strike us as strained.  He revealed a far more moderate 
and cerebral side in private, particularly in assessing the 
relative strengths of his allies and his adversaries.  He is 
correct in assessing the continued focus on politics and 
personalities, but that is nowhere a greater problem than in 
FIDESZ.  Although he has changed the party's slogan to "A New 
Majority" (from the short-lived "Democracy without 
Compromise"), he has miles to go in changing the party's 
culture to realize that vision.  End Comment. 
 
 
FOLEY