VZCZCXRO3383
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0248 0521459
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211459Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0796
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000248 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU
SUBJECT: RHETORICAL QUESTIONS: ORBAN'S STATE OF THE NATION 
 
REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 B) BUDAPEST 199 C) BUDAPEST 135 
 
     AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI 
 
¶1. (C) FIDESZ Party President Viktor Orban gave a fiery 
"State of the Nation" address to an invited group of several 
hundred party representatives in Budapest February 16 (ref 
a). 
 
NEW MAJORITY VS. NEW ARISTOCRACY 
 
¶2. (C) The speech represented a clear escalation in the 
opposition's rhetoric.  Orban strongly denounced the 
Gyurcsany government as "Hungary's new aristocracy," 
demanding accountability for their "lies, cynicism, and 
pretense."   He asserted that the people have the right to 
remove their government, warning that there will be "no peace 
without justice" and stating that only the "new majority" led 
by FIDESZ can restore Hungary's strength. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Orban's remarks met with largely critical reviews. 
Many commentators saw nothing new in his address, describing 
the event as a "missed opportunity" to lay out clear policy 
alternatives in response to PM Gyurcsany's speech to 
Parliament February 13 (ref b).  Noting the intensity of the 
rhetoric, Orban's former cabinet chief (and more recent 
critic), Istvan Stumpf, remarked that "what Orban calls a 
crisis will never be big enough to force the cabinet's 
resignation."  Minister of Economy Koka has already warned 
that Orban is courting "civil war." 
 
¶4. (C) Our colleagues in the diplomatic community believe the 
opposition will "change the volume but not the debate" as the 
government proceeds with its reform agenda in the months 
ahead.  They see Orban as fixated on divisive "dissident 
tactics" while a new breed of FIDESZ leaders - composed of 
elected officials more attuned to compromise than 
confrontation - grows increasingly impatient on the 
sidelines.  In a recent interview, Budapest District V Mayor 
(and former FIDESZ national campaign chairman) Antal Rogan 
commented that the party "no longer resembles Orban" and 
suggested that "everything must change."  Our colleagues 
believe this internal pressure may push an insecure Orban to 
more extreme rhetoric (and potentially more extreme action) 
in order to achieve success now whatever the objective risks. 
 
 
COLORLESS REVOLUTION 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: After a new (and welcome) focus on issues 
such as energy security over the winter (ref c), Orban is 
apparently returning to the familiar politics of outrage.  As 
our diplomatic colleagues note, his populist remarks are 
still those of an angry young man ... albeit one who is no 
longer quite so young.  Indeed, there is a part of Orban that 
seems to yearn for the barricades, as if he regrets the fact 
that Hungary had a colorless transition in 1989-90 rather 
than a color-coded revolution.  While this attitude strikes a 
deep chord with many Hungarians, it contrasts sharply with 
the more pragmatic approach of others in the party who would 
prefer to appeal to voters' self-interest rather than their 
self-image.  As March 15 approaches, Orban will be tempted to 
continue his more extreme rhetoric, both to destabilize the 
government and to solidify his own political position.  End 
Comment. 
 
REEKER