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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0199/01 0440904
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 130904Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0748
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2012 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU
SUBJECT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN: PARLIAMENT RETURNS 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 155 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Parliament returned for its first session of 
2007 on February 12.  Although the formal docket called for 
discussion of issues ranging from the Riga Summit to the 
confirmation of Constitutional Court judges, the event was 
dominated by Prime Minister Gyurcsany's opening address and 
responses across the political spectrum.  When substance 
intruded, it often revolved around initiatives for middle 
class Hungarians, who are increasingly seen as potential 
swing voters.  With the PM relying more on rhetorical 
flourishes than facts and the opposition resorting 
immediately to a walk-out, MDF leader Ibolya David summed up 
the day by commenting to the gallery "Happy New Year ... and 
what has really changed?"  End Summary. 
 
GYURCSANY PITCHES; OPPOSITION WALKS 
 
¶2.  (C) Pre-empted by a walk-out by the opposition bloc, 
Gyurcsany underscored the necessity of reform to ensure 
Hungary's future, emphasizing that "a day of reckoning is 
inevitable" but promising that "a bright future is within our 
reach."  The government's austerity measures are working, but 
reforming the economy is the first step of reforming 
Hungarian society.  Describing delay as "taking a pain-killer 
rather than real medicine, he called for (largely 
unspecified) investment in eduction, research and 
development, anti-poverty programs, transportation, and 
health care.  "The real scandal," he asserted in an oblique 
reference to his infamous speech last year, is Hungary's 
record in foreign language fluency, life expectancy, and 
child poverty."    Though he cited full European integration 
as the goal, he stated that he will "fight anyone - even 
Brussels - to safeguard our market and our products." 
 
¶3.  (C) In brief references to foreign policy, Gyurcsany 
reiterated his commitment to increasing military capabilities 
to engage in the GWOT and to decreasing Hungary's dependence 
on foreign energy supplies.  He pledged to release detailed 
plans on pensions, and referred to five "flagship" 
initiatives including pre-kindergarten and continuing 
education, regional development, research communities, and 
small and medium enterprises. 
 
HUNGARIAN POLITICS; AMERICAN REFERENCES 
 
¶4.  (C) Reaction was predictable and often pointed.  Speaking 
for FIDESZ, parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics, 
compared the PM to "a foreigner who arrives, takes a look 
around, tells us what all the answers are ... and then 
leaves."  He accused the government of creating an atmosphere 
of fear in order to avoid accountability, and suggested that 
Gyurcsany views "governing merely as a preparation for the 
next campaign."  MSZP faction leader Ildiko Lendvai responded 
that the opposition has cornered the market on 
fear-mongering, but warned that "throwing fruit and waving 
(nationalist) Arpad flags" won't stop the government from 
fulfilling its mandate.  "We have months," she continued, 
"not years" to "avoid national suicide."  If the opposition 
wishes to explain to its voters why they are pursuing 
"rebellion" instead of reform, she concluded "the majority 
will go ahead and govern ... with the assistance of those 
members of the opposition who are willing to cooperate with 
us."  Ibolya David, leader of the moderate opposition MDF, 
attacked in both directions.  Warning of disastrous 
consequences to continued gridlock, she denounced both 
FIDESZ's tactics and the government's "eloquent but empty" 
rhetoric. 
 
¶5.  (C) American political references echoed throughout the 
day.  Gyucsany's called on a "silent majority" to support 
reform, asserted that "fear is all we have to fear, and 
pledged to "leave no child behind."  For its part, the 
opposition seized on his passing reference to Hungarian 
founding father Lajos Batthany by retorting "Ferenc Gyurcsany 
is no Lajos Batthany." 
 
"YOU WERE RIGHT, FERI" 
 
¶6.  (C) Gyurcsany enters the spring season partially 
recovered but not fully rejuvenated after a long 2006 
campaign, and his speech started slowly.  In a meeting with 
ASEAN Ambassadors February 8, a composed but joyless 
Gyurcsany reviewed the political state of play.  He 
reiterated the major themes of his recent "text" on reform 
(while apologizing for the "long boring document"), casting 
his goal as fundamental economic, political, and social 
change.  Although he emphasized his interest in results 
rather than "a beauty contest," he stated several times that 
 
BUDAPEST 00000199  002 OF 002 
 
 
he looks forward to the public "forgiving and forgetting" and 
admitting "you were right, Feri" before the next elections. 
(Comment: Despite the PM's repeated protestations that he is 
indifferent to his popularity, SZDSZ MP Matyas Eorsi remains 
convinced that "Gyurcsany really wants to be loved."  End 
Comment.) 
 
OPPOSITION "IRON FISTED" ... BUT EMPTY HANDED? 
 
¶7.  (C) Gyurcsany enters the political season with some 
confidence that "the worst is over."  He believes that 
reforms have been successful but remain insufficient.  He is 
prepared to adjust his "methodologies" in order to complete 
the process, and believes the "trajectory" of the 
demonstrations is headed down while the authorities are 
better prepared for all contingencies.  He believes that 
Hungary "turned back from the abyss" last year and hopes the 
"complicated year" of 2007 will lead to a "year of 
consolidation" in 2008.  He perceives growing discord within 
the opposition, commenting that Orban's "iron fist" may not 
be able to surpress his growing number of critics.  Indeed, 
the decision to walk out before Gyurcsany's speech was 
preceeded by a split vote in the opposition caucus.  The 
FIDESZ leader, Gyurcsany continued, had been disappointed by 
the tepid response to his recent protest at Parliament 
(reftel), and will be further disappointed if he thinks he 
can "force the government to step down."  The opposition he 
concluded, is too consumed with its "romantic nationalism" to 
realize that "Hungary has never had a successful revolution." 
 
SEEMS WE'VE TALKED THIS WAY BEFORE ... 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment: Both the government and the opposition view 
the coming year as decisive, whether as the low point to 
negotiate before an economic turn-around or as the last 
chance to topple a government that is still vulnerable in 
this "year of sacrifice."  Working to project confidence, 
Gyurcsany set new goals but provided few details in his 
address, and the opposition's walk-out dashed the faint hopes 
of a new start in the New Year.  If today's opening session 
is any indicator, all parties are beginning to focus on the 
middle class, where Hungary's swing voters reside.  Today's 
opening salvoes will be the first of many; with Orban 
scheduled to address an outdoor rally in Budapest February 
17, the exchanges will not be confined to Parliament. End 
Comment. 
FOLEY